Volatility Model for Financial Market Risk Management : An Analysis on JSX Index Return Covariance Matrix

In measuring risk, practitioners have practiced one of the two extreme approaches for so long, i.e. historical simulation or risk metrics. Meanwhile, academicians tend to apply methods based on the latest development in financial econometrics. In this study, we try to assess one of important issues in financial econometric development that focuses on market risk measurement and management employing asset-based models, i.e. models that apply dimensional covariance matrix, which is relevant to practice world. We compare covariance matrix model with Exponential Smoothing Model and GARCH Derivation and the Associated Derivation Models, using JSX Stock price Index data in 2000-2005. The result of this study shows how applicable the observed financial econometric instrument in Financial Market Risk Management practice.Risk Management, Volatility Model

MEASURING HISTORICAL RISK IN QUARTERLY MILK PRICES

Various methods have been used to estimate risk indices with historical data. An industry perception of increasing milk price risk over time provides a standard for evaluating several techniques used to measure historical risk. Risk measures from a regression model and an ARIMA model were consistent with the perception of increasing risk.Risk and Uncertainty,

West African Monetary Integration and Interstates Risk-Sharing

There are continuing efforts at the monetary integration and unionization in West Africa. Several academics argue that a monetary union among West African states would be costly because of the magnitude of asymmetric shocks. A common monetary policy is inappropriate and ineffective to respond to divergent shocks. Therefore, the stability of such a union is critically dependent on risk-sharing mechanisms for achieving income insurance and consumption smoothing. A monetary union is still optimal if output stabilization mechanisms such as risk-sharing institutions, are in place to cope with asymmetric shocks. This article estimates risk-sharing channels among West African states from 1970 to 2004. It uses the definition of national accounts to measure the fraction of asymmetric output shocks smoothed via net factors income, net transfers and net saving. We find that compared to the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) estimates, the degree of risk-sharing among West African countries is quite low. We also obtain that net saving is the significant and stable risk-sharing channel. A further analysis shows that only the contribution of public saving is significant.Asymmetric shocks, Interstates Risk-sharing, West Africa

Modelling High Frequency Financial Count Data

This thesis comprises two papers concerning modelling of financial count data. The papers advance the integer-valued moving average model (INMA), a special case of integer-valued autoregressive moving average (INARMA) model class, and apply the models to the number of stock transactions in intra-day data. Paper [1] advances the INMA model to model the number of transactions in stocks in intra-day data. The conditional mean and variance properties are discussed and model extensions to include, e.g., explanatory variables are offered. Least squares and generalized method of moment estimators are presented. In a small Monte Carlo study a feasible least squares estimator comes out as the best choice. Empirically we find support for the use of long-lag moving average models in a Swedish stock series. There is evidence of asymmetric effects of news about prices on the number of transactions. Paper [2] introduces a bivariate integer-valued moving average model (BINMA) and applies the BINMA model to the number of stock transactions in intra-day data. The BINMA model allows for both positive and negative correlations between the count data series. The study shows that the correlation between series in the BINMA model is always smaller than 1 in an absolute sense. The conditional mean, variance and covariance are given. Model extensions to include explanatory variables are suggested. Using the BINMA model for AstraZeneca and Ericsson B it is found that there is positive correlation between the stock transactions series. Empirically, we find support for the use of long-lag bivariate moving average models for the two series.Count data; Intra-day; High frequency; Time series; Estimation; Long memory; Finance

A generalized method for detecting abnormal returns and changes in systematic risk

The authors generalize traditional event-study techniques to allow for event-induced parameter shifts, shifting variances, and firm-specific event periods. Their method, which nests traditional methods, also permits systematic risk to change gradually during the event period and exit the period at higher or lower levels. The authors use their approach to study 132 banks that acquired other institutions between 1989 and 1995. The authors find a significant change in the systematic risk of the acquiring firms, significant ARCH effects, and an event period that ends before the date of the announcement. None of these results is detectable using conventional methods. These results imply that (1) event studies that cannot account for information leakage may be biased, and (2) changes in systematic risk can occur in the absence of abnormal returns, and (3) regulators, investors and bank managers must evaluate each acquisition on its own merits; reliance on averages can mask important distinctions across acquisitions.Bank mergers ; Econometric models ; Risk

West African Monetary Integration and Interstates Risk-Sharing

There are continuing efforts at the monetary integration and unionization in West Africa. Several academics argue that a monetary union among West African states would be costly because of the magnitude of asymmetric shocks. A common monetary policy is inappropriate and ineffective to respond to divergent shocks. Therefore, the stability of such a union is critically dependent on risk-sharing mechanisms for achieving income insurance and consumption smoothing. A monetary union is still optimal if output stabilization mechanisms such as risk-sharing institutions, are in place to cope with asymmetric shocks. This article estimates risk-sharing channels among West African states from 1970 to 2004. It uses the definition of national accounts to measure the fraction of asymmetric output shocks smoothed via net factors income, net transfers and net saving. We find that compared to the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) estimates, the degree of risk-sharing among West African countries is quite low. We also obtain that net saving is the significant and stable risk-sharing channel. A further analysis shows that only the contribution of public saving is significant.Asymmetric shocks;Interstates Risk-sharing;West Africa

Volatility Forecasting Models and Market Co-Integration: A Study on South-East Asian Markets

Volatility forecasting is an imperative research field in financial markets and crucial component in most financial decisions. Nevertheless, which model should be used to assess volatility remains a complex issue as different volatility models result in different volatility approximations. The concern becomes more complicated when one tries to use the forecasting for asset distribution and risk management purposes in the linked regional markets. This paper aims at observing the effectiveness of the contending models of statistical and econometric volatility forecasting in the three South-east Asian prominent capital markets, i.e. STI, KLSE, and JKSE. In this paper, we evaluate eleven different models based on two classes of evaluation measures, i.e. symmetric and asymmetric error statistics, following Kumar’s (2006) framework. We employ 10-year data as in sample and 6-month data as out of sample to construct and test the models, consecutively. The resulting superior methods, which are selected based on the out of sample forecasts and some evaluation measures in the respective markets, are then used to assess the markets cointegration. We find that the best volatility forecasting models for JKSE, KLSE, and STI are GARCH (2,1), GARCH(3,1), and GARCH (1,1), respectively. We also find that international portfolio investors cannot benefit from diversification among these three equity markets as they are cointegrated.Volatility Forecasting, Capital Market, Risk Management

Agency Theory Issues in the Food Processing Industry

The objective is to identify significant determinants of performance for food processing firms over the 1992 to 2003 time period, focusing particularly on the issue of family control. Variables measuring firm effects such as asset size, governance, income distribution, and risk are used to explain return on equity. This study builds upon previous research by including a measure of income distribution in the food processing industry. Governance variables are found to be significant determinants of return on equity. The results found no evidence of agency problems in family-controlled firms during this time period.agribusiness, institutional economics, organizational economics, Agribusiness, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Production Economics, D23, G34, Q13, Q14,