Ensembles of probability estimation trees for customer churn prediction

Customer churn prediction is one of the most, important elements tents of a company's Customer Relationship Management, (CRM) strategy In tins study, two strategies are investigated to increase the lift. performance of ensemble classification models, i.e (1) using probability estimation trees (PETs) instead of standard decision trees as base classifiers; and (n) implementing alternative fusion rules based on lift weights lot the combination of ensemble member's outputs Experiments ale conducted lot font popular ensemble strategics on five real-life chin n data sets In general, the results demonstrate how lift performance can be substantially improved by using alternative base classifiers and fusion tides However: the effect vanes lot the (Idol cut ensemble strategies lit particular, the results indicate an increase of lift performance of (1) Bagging by implementing C4 4 base classifiets. (n) the Random Subspace Method (RSM) by using lift-weighted fusion rules, and (in) AdaBoost, by implementing both

Irrigation Management Information Network (IMIN) Keyword thesaurus

Irrigation management / Thesauri / Information services / Networks

The Monetary Value of Winter Sport Services in the European Alps

Considering the increasing stress of competition in winter sports, e.g., caused by the increasing popularity of sun holidays in the winter season or recently developed new ski areas, cable-car companies have to optimize their price-performance ratio with a modified marketing management approach. For most decisions regarding the marketing mix (e.g. the price calculation of new supply attributes), the knowledge about the monetary value of the different single attributes a consumer receives when purchasing a ski-lift ticket is indispensable. Since economics in general has a certain value for practical decision-taking in leisure management we follow other authors and transfer the economic concept of ‘hedonic prices’ to the field of empirical leisure research to derive the monetary value of some core service attributes in winter sports. The study is based on data of n=260 ski areas in five countries of the European Alps (Austria, France, Germany, Italy, and Switzerland). While the developed hedonic price models show rather high-variance explanatory power, most of the estimated attribute prices differ significantly between the countries studied. Possible implications for the price and product policies of cable-car companies are presented and discussed.Winter sports, hedonic approach, monetary value, ski, service, price

Amersham and Wycombe College: report from the Inspectorate (FEFC inspection report; 63/96 and 106/00)

The Further Education Funding Council has a legal duty to make sure further education in England is properly assessed. The FEFC’s inspectorate inspects and reports on each college of further education according to a four-year cycle. This record comprises the reports for periods 1995-96 and 1999-2000

Should they stay or should they go? Reactivation and Termination of Low-Tier Customers: Effects on Satisfaction, Word-of-Mouth, and Purchases

Many companies face the problem of having a substantial number of low-tier customers ? clients at the bottom of the customer pyramid. For this segment, it is necessary to either reactivate or terminate the customer relationships to increase profitability. Managers seek to learn more about marketing actions targeted towards low-tier customers and their response towards these actions. Therefore, we conducted a large field experiment in which we implemented a ?last call? marketing action for a large sample of low-tier customers of a catalogue retailer (N = 12,000). The action aims at sales reactivation, but in case a customer should not react, the relationship will be terminated. We measure customer response in terms of satisfaction, (positive and negative) word-of-mouth, and purchase behavior. We find no harmful effects from relationship termination, such as dissatisfaction or negative word-of-mouth. The results indicate that the ?last call? marketing action reactivates a small fraction of the low-tier customers. These customers remain active in the months following the action period. We discuss managerial implications of our findings and future research on low-tier customer segments.

Finding Influential Users in Social Media Using Association Rule Learning

Influential users play an important role in online social networks since users tend to have an impact on one other. Therefore, the proposed work analyzes users and their behavior in order to identify influential users and predict user participation. Normally, the success of a social media site is dependent on the activity level of the participating users. For both online social networking sites and individual users, it is of interest to find out if a topic will be interesting or not. In this article, we propose association learning to detect relationships between users. In order to verify the findings, several experiments were executed based on social network analysis, in which the most influential users identified from association rule learning were compared to the results from Degree Centrality and Page Rank Centrality. The results clearly indicate that it is possible to identify the most influential users using association rule learning. In addition, the results also indicate a lower execution time compared to state-of-the-art methods

Royal Forest of Dean College: report from the Inspectorate (FEFC inspection report; 69/97 and 57/01)

The Further Education Funding Council has a legal duty to make sure further education in England is properly assessed. The FEFC’s inspectorate inspects and reports on each college of further education according to a four-year cycle. This record comprises the reports for periods 1996-97 and 2000/0

Measuring the Success of Retention Management Models Built on Churn Probability, Retention Probability, and Expected Yearly Revenues

In this paper, we claim that optimal retention management models should consider not only churn probability but also retention probability and expected revenues from target customers. To validate our claim, we develop and compare five retention management models based on churn probability, retention probability, expected revenues, and combination of these models along with different evaluation metrics. Our experimental results show that the retention management model with the highest accuracy in predicting possible churners is not necessarily optimal because it does not consider the probability of accepting retention promotions. In contrast, the retention management model based on both churn and retention probability is the best in terms of predicting customers who are most likely to positively respond to retention promotions. Ultimately, the model based on expected yearly revenue of customers accrues the highest revenues across most target points, making it the best model out of five retention management models

Paying to Play: Social Media in Advancement 2016

To cut through the growing chatter across social media channels, many educational institutions are paying to increase the visibility of their content on Facebook, Twitter and other digital platforms, according to a new white paper by CASE, Huron and mStoner, Inc."Paying to Play: Social Media in Advancement 2016" reports that 83 percent of surveyed respondents are boosting or promoting posts or advertising on Facebook; 16 percent are advertising or promoting tweets on Twitter and 9 percent report advertising on LinkedIn.Schools, colleges and universities worldwide are paying to boost and promote content as the organic reach across all social channels declines, write "Paying to Play" co-authors Jennifer Mack of Huron and Michael Stoner of mStoner Inc."Paying to improve exposure is the single best way to ensure that a particular piece of content reaches as many fans and followers as possible, allowing them the opportunity to engage with it in some way," according to Mack and Stoner.Surveyed institutions boosted, promoted or advertised posts to increase attendance at events, encourage more engagement with an important campaign and grow awareness of giving days, among other reasons. These institutions, however, were selective about which posts to boost as most don't yet have much, if any, budget for amplifying social content.Beyond this growing pay-to-play trend among educational institutions, the white paper reveals common practices of institutions that are most successful with social media. According to the white paper, these institutions are:More likely to boost, promote and advertise their postsMore likely to share content generated by their constituents on social channelsLikely to use social media for prospect researchAdept at turning their expertise in using social media into dollars for their institutionsOther findings include:Nearly 90 percent of respondents agreed that social media is a much more important part of their communications and marketing efforts than three years ago.When convincing senior leadership of the value of social media, 45 percent of respondents point to the opportunity to connect with new audiences while 42 percent name the ability to engage young alumni.Use of Instagram rose from 54 percent in 2015 to 65 percent in 2016.Use of Snapchat grew from 5 percent in 2015 to 15 percent in 2016."Paying to Play: Social Media in Advancement 2016" reports on findings from the seventh survey of social media in advancement, which was conducted earlier this year by Huron and mStoner in partnership with CASE. Nearly 1,200 respondents at educational institutions worldwide provided feedback on their use of social media