Global Innovations in Measurement and Evaluation

We researched the latest developments in theory and practice in measurement and evaluation. And we found that new thinking, techniques, and technology are influencing and improving practice. This report highlights 8 developments that we think have the greatest potential to improve evaluation and programme design, and the careful collection and use of data. In it, we seek to inform and inspire—to celebrate what is possible, and encourage wider application of these ideas

Innovation, skills and performance in the downturn: an analysis of the UK innovation survey 2011

The link between firms’ innovation performance and economic cycles, especially major downturns such as that of 2008-10, is a matter of great policy significance, but is relatively under-researched at least at the level of micro data on business behaviour. It is, for example, often argued that economies need to ‘innovate out of recessions’ since innovation is positively associated with improvements in productivity that then lead to growth and better employment (Nesta, 2009). The issues of how individual firms respond to downturns through their investment in innovation, and how this impacts on innovation outputs and ultimately business performance and growth during and after downturns, has been less studied because relevant data has not been readily available. The UK Innovation Survey (UKIS) 2011 now makes this possible. The UKIS 2011 with reference period 2008 to 2010 covers the downturn in economic activity generated by the global financial crash. The build-up of panels over the life of the UKIS also supports analysis of the longer-term interactions between innovation and the business cycle. This report analyses the last four waves of the surveys. Further, the latest survey includes questions on whether firms employ a specific set of skills, which adds materially to the ability to research the role of skills and human capital in innovation at the micro level

Between empowerment and abuse: citizen participation beyond the post-democratic turn

In this special issue on “Democratization beyond the Post-Democratic Turn. Political Participation between Empowerment and Abuse”, we have explored changing understandings of participation in contemporary Western representative democracies through the analytical lens of the concept of the post-democratic-turn. We have investigated technology-based, market-based, and expert-led innovations that claim to enhance democratic participation and to provide policy legitimation. In this concluding article, I revisit the cases made by the individual contributors and analyse how shifting notions of participation alter dominant understandings of democracy. I carve out how new and emerging ideas of participation are based on different understandings of political subjectivity; furthermore, how constantly rising democratic expectations and simultaneously increasing scepticism with regard to democratic processes and institutions point to a growing democratic ambivalence within Western societies. Making use of Dahl’s conceptualization of democracy, in this article, I review changing understandings of participation in light of their contribution to further democratization. The article shows how under post-democratic conditions the simulative performance of autonomy and subjectivity has become central to democratic participation. It emphasizes that what in established perspectives on democratization might appear as an abuse of participation, through the lens of a post-democratic-turn might be perceived as emancipatory and liberating

Innovation in the Public Sector

Innovation is something that is new, capable of being implemented, and has a beneficial impact. It is not an event or activity; it is a concept, process, practice, and capability that defines successful organizations. Innovation in the public sector can help create value for society

Measuring confidence and uncertainty during the financial crisis : evidence from the CFS survey

The CFS survey covers individual situations of banks and other companies of the financial sector during the financial crisis. This provides a rare possibility to analyze appraisals, expectations and forecast errors of the core sector of the recent turmoil. Following standard ways of aggregating individual survey data, we first present and introduce the CFS survey by comparing CFS indicators of confidence and predicted confidence to ifo and ZEW indicators. The major contribution is the analysis of several indicators of uncertainty. In addition to well established concepts, we introduce innovative measures based on the skewness of forecast errors and on the share of ‘no response’ replies. Results show that uncertainty indicators fit quite well with pattern of real and financial time series of the time period 2007 to 2010. Business Sentiment , Financial Crisis , Survey Indicator , Uncertaint

Persistence Characteristics of Latin American Financial Markets

The financial rates of return from Latin American stock and currency markets are found to be non-normal, non-stationary, non-ergodic and long-term dependent, i.e., they have long memory. The degree of long- term dependence is measured by monofractal (global) Hurst exponents from wavelet multiresolution analysis (MRA). Scalograms and scalegrams provide the respective visualizations of these wavelet coefficients and the power spectrum of the rates of return. The slope of the power spectrum identifies the Hurst exponent and thereby the degree of scaling dependence that cannot be determined by Box-Jenkins type time series analysis. Our dependency and time and frequency scaling results are consistent with similar empirical findings from American, European, and Asian financial markets, extending the domain of the empirical investigation of the dynamics and risk characteristics of financial markets and refuting the hypothesis of perfectly efficient markets.financial markets, long memory, Hurst exponent, scalegram, wavelets, multiresolution analysis, measurement accuracy

More effective skills utilisation : shifting the terrain of skills policy in Scotland

This paper examines shifts in skills policy in Scotland towards emphasising the importance of effective skills utilisation. Turning policy into practice, however, requires a better understanding than currently exists of skills utilisation in order to facilitate better measurement, evaluation and intervention. This paper aims to contribute to such an understanding. We suggest that effective skills utilisation comprises two distinct elements: the use of better skills and the better use of skills, with the former crucial to the development of a high skills economy and the latter crucial to realising existing untapped workforce potential. We further argue that skills utilisation is most likely where workers have the ability, motivation and opportunity to deploy their skills effectively. We conclude by advocating greater collaboration in skills utilisation practice and research between relevant stakeholders, drawing on European experiences and an approach – which we call ASPiRRE – that envelops actors, structures, protocols, responsibilities, resources and expertise in order to align distinct stakeholder interests and encourage innovative practice in skills deployment

"Minskyan Perspective, Part II--Treasury, CRMPG Reports, Financial Stability Forum"

This four-part study is a critical analysis of several reports dealing with the reform of the financial system in the United States. The study uses Minsky's framework of analysis and focuses on the implications of Ponzi finance for regulatory and supervisory policies. The main conclusion of the study is that, while all reports make some valuable suggestions, they fail to deal with the socioeconomic dynamics that emerge during long periods of economic stability. As a consequence, it is highly doubtful that the principal suggestions contained in the reports will provide any applicable means to limit the worsening of financial fragility over periods of economic stability. The study also concludes that any meaningful systemic and prudential regulatory changes should focus on the analysis of expected and actual cash flows (sources and stability) rather than capital equity, and on preventing the emergence of Ponzi processes. The latter tend to emerge over long periods of economic stability and are not necessarily engineered by crooks. On the contrary, the pursuit of economic growth may involve the extensive use of Ponzi financial processes in legal economic activities. The study argues that some Ponzi processes--more precisely, pyramid Ponzi processes--should not be allowed to proceed, no matter how severe the immediate impact on economic growth, standards of living, or competitiveness. This is so because pyramid Ponzi processes always collapse, regardless how efficient financial markets are, how well informed and well behaved individuals are, or whether there is a "bubble" or not. The longer the process is allowed to proceed, the more destructive it becomes. Pyramid Ponzi processes cannot be risk-managed or buffered against; if economic growth is to be based on a solid financial foundation, these processes cannot be allowed to continue. Finally, a supervisory and regulatory process focused on detecting Ponzi processes would be much more flexible and adaptive, since it would not be preoccupied with either functional or product limits, or with arbitrary ratios of "prudence." Rather, it would oversee all financial institutions and all products, no matter how new or marginal they might be. See also, Working Paper Nos. 574.1, 574.3, and 574.4.

" A Critical Assessment of Seven Reports on Financial Reform: A Minskyan Perspective, Part III--G30, OECD, GAO, ICMBS Reports"

This four-part study is a critical analysis of several reports dealing with the reform of the financial system in the United States. The study uses Minsky's framework of analysis and focuses on the implications of Ponzi finance for regulatory and supervisory policies. The main conclusion of the study is that, while all reports make some valuable suggestions, they fail to deal with the socioeconomic dynamics that emerge during long periods of economic stability. As a consequence, it is highly doubtful that the principal suggestions contained in the reports will provide any applicable means to limit the worsening of financial fragility over periods of economic stability. The study also concludes that any meaningful systemic and prudential regulatory changes should focus on the analysis of expected and actual cash flows (sources and stability) rather than capital equity, and on preventing the emergence of Ponzi processes. The latter tend to emerge over long periods of economic stability and are not necessarily engineered by crooks. On the contrary, the pursuit of economic growth may involve the extensive use of Ponzi financial processes in legal economic activities. The study argues that some Ponzi processes--more precisely, pyramid Ponzi processes--should not be allowed to proceed, no matter how severe the immediate impact on economic growth, standards of living, or competitiveness. This is so because pyramid Ponzi processes always collapse, regardless how efficient financial markets are, how well informed and well behaved individuals are, or whether there is a "bubble" or not. The longer the process is allowed to proceed, the more destructive it becomes. Pyramid Ponzi processes cannot be risk-managed or buffered against; if economic growth is to be based on a solid financial foundation, these processes cannot be allowed to continue. Finally, a supervisory and regulatory process focused on detecting Ponzi processes would be much more flexible and adaptive, since it would not be preoccupied with either functional or product limits, or with arbitrary ratios of "prudence." Rather, it would oversee all financial institutions and all products, no matter how new or marginal they might be. See also, Working Paper Nos. 574.1, 574.2, and 574.4.