Using ordinal logistic regression to evaluate the performance of laser-Doppler predictions of burn-healing time

Background Laser-Doppler imaging (LDI) of cutaneous blood flow is beginning to be used by burn surgeons to predict the healing time of burn wounds; predicted healing time is used to determine wound treatment as either dressings or surgery. In this paper, we do a statistical analysis of the performance of the technique. Methods We used data from a study carried out by five burn centers: LDI was done once between days 2 to 5 post burn, and healing was assessed at both 14 days and 21 days post burn. Random-effects ordinal logistic regression and other models such as the continuation ratio model were used to model healing-time as a function of the LDI data, and of demographic and wound history variables. Statistical methods were also used to study the false-color palette, which enables the laser-Doppler imager to be used by clinicians as a decision-support tool. Results Overall performance is that diagnoses are over 90% correct. Related questions addressed were what was the best blood flow summary statistic and whether, given the blood flow measurements, demographic and observational variables had any additional predictive power (age, sex, race, % total body surface area burned (%TBSA), site and cause of burn, day of LDI scan, burn center). It was found that mean laser-Doppler flux over a wound area was the best statistic, and that, given the same mean flux, women recover slightly more slowly than men. Further, the likely degradation in predictive performance on moving to a patient group with larger %TBSA than those in the data sample was studied, and shown to be small. Conclusion Modeling healing time is a complex statistical problem, with random effects due to multiple burn areas per individual, and censoring caused by patients missing hospital visits and undergoing surgery. This analysis applies state-of-the art statistical methods such as the bootstrap and permutation tests to a medical problem of topical interest. New medical findings are that age and %TBSA are not important predictors of healing time when the LDI results are known, whereas gender does influence recovery time, even when blood flow is controlled for. The conclusion regarding the palette is that an optimum three-color palette can be chosen 'automatically', but the optimum choice of a 5-color palette cannot be made solely by optimizing the percentage of correct diagnoses

Statistical modeling, parameter estimation and measurement planning for PV degradation

Photovoltaics (PV) degradation is a key consideration during PV performance evaluation. Accurately predicting power delivery over the course of lifetime of PV is vital to manufacturers and system owners. With many systems exceeding 20 years of operation worldwide, degradation rates have been reported abundantly in the recent years. PV degradation is a complex function of a variety of factors, including but not limited to climate, manufacturer, technology and installation skill. As a result, it is difficult to determine degradation rate by analytical modeling; it has to be measured. As one set of degradation measurements based on a single sample cannot represent the population nor be used to estimate the true degradation of a particular PV technology, repeated measures through multiple samples are essential. In this chapter, linear mixed effects model (LMM) is introduced to analyze longitudinal degradation data. The framework herein introduced aims to address three issues: 1) how to model the difference in degradation observed in PV modules/systems of a same technology that are installed at a shared location; 2) how to estimate the degradation rate and quantiles based on the data; and 3) how to effectively and efficiently plan degradation measurements

Search for neutrino oscillations on a long base-line at the CHOOZ nuclear power station

This final article about the CHOOZ experiment presents a complete description of the electron antineutrino source and detector, the calibration methods and stability checks, the event reconstruction procedures and the Monte Carlo simulation. The data analysis, systematic effects and the methods used to reach our conclusions are fully discussed. Some new remarks are presented on the deduction of the confidence limits and on the correct treatment of systematic errors.Comment: 41 pages, 59 figures, Latex file, accepted for publication by Eur.Phys.J.

Fuse: A technique to anticipate failures due to degradation in ALUs

This paper proposes the fuse, a technique to anticipate failures due to degradation in any ALU (arithmetic logic unit), and particularly in an adder. The fuse consists of a replica of the weakest transistor in the adder and the circuitry required to measure its degradation. By mimicking the behavior of the replicated transistor the fuse anticipates the failure short before the first failure in the adder appears, and hence, data corruption and program crashes can be avoided. Our results show that the fuse anticipates the failure in more than 99.9% of the cases after 96.6% of the lifetime, even for pessimistic random within-die variations.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Scout motor performance analysis and prediction study /PAPS/

Scout motor performance analysis and predictio

Estimating Network Kinetics of the MAPK/ERK Pathway Using Biochemical Data

The MAPK/ERK pathway is a major signal transduction system which regulates many fundamental cellular processes including the growth control and the cell death. As a result of these roles, it has a crucial importance in cancer as well as normal developmental processes. Therefore, it has been intensively studied resulting in a wealth of knowledge about its activation. It is also well documented that the activation kinetics of the pathway is crucial to determine the nature of the biological response. However, while individual biochemical steps are well characterized, it is still difficult to predict or even understand how the activation kinetics works. The aim of this paper is to estimate the stochastic rate constants of the MAPK/ERK network dynamics. Accordingly, taking a Bayesian approach, we combined underlying qualitative biological knowledge in several competing dynamic models via sets of quasireactions and estimated the stochastic rate constants of these reactions. Comparing the resulting estimates via the BIC and DIC criteria, we chose a biological model which includes EGFR degradation—Raf-MEK-ERK cascade without the involvement of RKIPs.

Quantifying Dynamics in Tropical Peat Swamp Forest Biomass with Multi- Temporal LiDAR Datasets

Tropical peat swamp forests in Indonesia store huge amounts of carbon and are responsible for enormous carbon emissions every year due to forest degradation and deforestation. These forest areas are in the focus of REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation, forest degradation, and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks) projects, which require an accurate monitoring of their carbon stocks or aboveground biomass (AGB). Our study objective was to evaluate multi-temporal LiDAR measurements of a tropical forested peatland area in Central Kalimantan on Borneo. Canopy height and AGB dynamics were quantified with a special focus on unaffected, selective logged and burned forests. More than 11,000 ha were surveyed with airborne LiDAR in 2007 and 2011. In a first step, the comparability of these datasets was examined and canopy height models were created. Novel AGB regression models were developed on the basis of field inventory measurements and LiDAR derived height histograms for 2007 (r(2) = 0.77, n = 79) and 2011 (r(2) = 0.81, n = 53), taking the different point densities into account. Changes in peat swamp forests were identified by analyzing multispectral imagery. Unaffected forests accumulated on average 20 t/ha AGB with a canopy height increase of 2.3 m over the four year time period. Selective logged forests experienced an average AGB loss of 55 t/ha within 30 m and 42 t/ha within 50 m of detected logging trails, although the mean canopy height increased by 0.5 m and 1.0 m, respectively. Burned forests lost 92% of the initial biomass. These results demonstrate the great potential of repetitive airborne LiDAR surveys to precisely quantify even small scale AGB and canopy height dynamics in remote tropical forests, thereby featuring the needs of REDD+

Effects of cosmic rays on single event upsets

The efforts at establishing a research program in space radiation effects are discussed. The research program has served as the basis for training several graduate students in an area of research that is of importance to NASA. In addition, technical support was provided for the Single Event Facility Group at Brookhaven National Laboratory