LIMEtree: Interactively Customisable Explanations Based on Local Surrogate Multi-output Regression Trees

Systems based on artificial intelligence and machine learning models should be transparent, in the sense of being capable of explaining their decisions to gain humans' approval and trust. While there are a number of explainability techniques that can be used to this end, many of them are only capable of outputting a single one-size-fits-all explanation that simply cannot address all of the explainees' diverse needs. In this work we introduce a model-agnostic and post-hoc local explainability technique for black-box predictions called LIMEtree, which employs surrogate multi-output regression trees. We validate our algorithm on a deep neural network trained for object detection in images and compare it against Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME). Our method comes with local fidelity guarantees and can produce a range of diverse explanation types, including contrastive and counterfactual explanations praised in the literature. Some of these explanations can be interactively personalised to create bespoke, meaningful and actionable insights into the model's behaviour. While other methods may give an illusion of customisability by wrapping, otherwise static, explanations in an interactive interface, our explanations are truly interactive, in the sense of allowing the user to "interrogate" a black-box model. LIMEtree can therefore produce consistent explanations on which an interactive exploratory process can be built

Latent SHAP: Toward Practical Human-Interpretable Explanations

Model agnostic feature attribution algorithms (such as SHAP and LIME) are ubiquitous techniques for explaining the decisions of complex classification models, such as deep neural networks. However, since complex classification models produce superior performance when trained on low-level (or encoded) features, in many cases, the explanations generated by these algorithms are neither interpretable nor usable by humans. Methods proposed in recent studies that support the generation of human-interpretable explanations are impractical, because they require a fully invertible transformation function that maps the model's input features to the human-interpretable features. In this work, we introduce Latent SHAP, a black-box feature attribution framework that provides human-interpretable explanations, without the requirement for a fully invertible transformation function. We demonstrate Latent SHAP's effectiveness using (1) a controlled experiment where invertible transformation functions are available, which enables robust quantitative evaluation of our method, and (2) celebrity attractiveness classification (using the CelebA dataset) where invertible transformation functions are not available, which enables thorough qualitative evaluation of our method

Inverse Classification for Comparison-based Interpretability in Machine Learning

In the context of post-hoc interpretability, this paper addresses the task of explaining the prediction of a classifier, considering the case where no information is available, neither on the classifier itself, nor on the processed data (neither the training nor the test data). It proposes an instance-based approach whose principle consists in determining the minimal changes needed to alter a prediction: given a data point whose classification must be explained, the proposed method consists in identifying a close neighbour classified differently, where the closeness definition integrates a sparsity constraint. This principle is implemented using observation generation in the Growing Spheres algorithm. Experimental results on two datasets illustrate the relevance of the proposed approach that can be used to gain knowledge about the classifier.Comment: preprin

Long Term Predictive Modeling on Big Spatio-Temporal Data

In the era of massive data, one of the most promising research fields involves the analysis of large-scale Spatio-temporal databases to discover exciting and previously unknown but potentially useful patterns from data collected over time and space. A modeling process in this domain must take temporal and spatial correlations into account, but with the dimensionality of the time and space measurements increasing, the number of elements potentially contributing to a target sharply grows, making the target\u27s long-term behavior highly complex, chaotic, highly dynamic, and hard to predict. Therefore, two different considerations are taken into account in this work: one is about how to identify the most relevant and meaningful features from the original Spatio-temporal feature space; the other is about how to model complex space-time dynamics with sensitive dependence on initial and boundary conditions. First, identifying strongly related features and removing the irrelevant or less important features with respect to a target feature from large-scale Spatio-temporal data sets is a critical and challenging issue in many fields, including the evolutionary history of crime hot spots, uncovering weather patterns, predicting floodings, earthquakes, and hurricanes, and determining global warming trends. The optimal sub-feature-set that contains all the valuable information is called the Markov Boundary. Unfortunately, the existing feature selection methods often focus on identifying a single Markov Boundary when real-world data could have many feature subsets that are equally good boundaries. In our work, we design a new multiple-Markov-boundary-based predictive model, Galaxy, to identify the precursors to heavy precipitation event clusters and predict heavy rainfall with a long lead time. We applied Galaxy to an extremely high-dimensional meteorological data set and finally determined 15 Markov boundaries related to heavy rainfall events in the Des Moines River Basin in Iowa. Our model identified the cold surges along the coast of Asia as an essential precursor to the surface weather over the United States, a finding which was later corroborated by climate experts. Second, chaotic behavior exists in many nonlinear Spatio-temporal systems, such as climate dynamics, weather prediction, and the space-time dynamics of virus spread. A reliable solution for these systems must handle their complex space-time dynamics and sensitive dependence on initial and boundary conditions. Deep neural networks\u27 hierarchical feature learning capabilities in both spatial and temporal domains are helpful for nonlinear Spatio-temporal dynamics modeling. However, sensitive dependence on initial and boundary conditions is still challenging for theoretical research and many critical applications. This study proposes a new recurrent architecture, error trajectory tracing, and accompanying training regime, Horizon Forcing, for prediction in chaotic systems. These methods have been validated on real-world Spatio-temporal data sets, including one meteorological dataset, three classics, chaotic systems, and four real-world time series prediction tasks with chaotic characteristics. Experiments\u27 results show that each proposed model could outperform the performance of current baseline approaches

Noise Corruption of Empirical Mode Decomposition and Its Effect on Instantaneous Frequency

Huang's Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is an algorithm for analyzing nonstationary data that provides a localized time-frequency representation by decomposing the data into adaptively defined modes. EMD can be used to estimate a signal's instantaneous frequency (IF) but suffers from poor performance in the presence of noise. To produce a meaningful IF, each mode of the decomposition must be nearly monochromatic, a condition that is not guaranteed by the algorithm and fails to be met when the signal is corrupted by noise. In this work, the extraction of modes containing both signal and noise is identified as the cause of poor IF estimation. The specific mechanism by which such "transition" modes are extracted is detailed and builds on the observation of Flandrin and Goncalves that EMD acts in a filter bank manner when analyzing pure noise. The mechanism is shown to be dependent on spectral leak between modes and the phase of the underlying signal. These ideas are developed through the use of simple signals and are tested on a synthetic seismic waveform.Comment: 28 pages, 19 figures. High quality color figures available on Daniel Kaslovsky's website: http://amath.colorado.edu/student/kaslovsk