34,257 research outputs found
Continuous-time mean-variance efficiency: the 80% rule
This paper studies a continuous-time market where an agent, having specified
an investment horizon and a targeted terminal mean return, seeks to minimize
the variance of the return. The optimal portfolio of such a problem is called
mean-variance efficient \`{a} la Markowitz. It is shown that, when the market
coefficients are deterministic functions of time, a mean-variance efficient
portfolio realizes the (discounted) targeted return on or before the terminal
date with a probability greater than 0.8072. This number is universal
irrespective of the market parameters, the targeted return and the length of
the investment horizon.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/105051606000000349 in the
Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute
of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
Continuous-time Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection with Stochastic Parameters
This paper studies a continuous-time market {under stochastic environment}
where an agent, having specified an investment horizon and a target terminal
mean return, seeks to minimize the variance of the return with multiple stocks
and a bond. In the considered model firstly proposed by [3], the mean returns
of individual assets are explicitly affected by underlying Gaussian economic
factors. Using past and present information of the asset prices, a
partial-information stochastic optimal control problem with random coefficients
is formulated. Here, the partial information is due to the fact that the
economic factors can not be directly observed. Via dynamic programming theory,
the optimal portfolio strategy can be constructed by solving a deterministic
forward Riccati-type ordinary differential equation and two linear
deterministic backward ordinary differential equations
Optimal Dynamic Portfolio with Mean-CVaR Criterion
Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) are popular risk
measures from academic, industrial and regulatory perspectives. The problem of
minimizing CVaR is theoretically known to be of Neyman-Pearson type binary
solution. We add a constraint on expected return to investigate the Mean-CVaR
portfolio selection problem in a dynamic setting: the investor is faced with a
Markowitz type of risk reward problem at final horizon where variance as a
measure of risk is replaced by CVaR. Based on the complete market assumption,
we give an analytical solution in general. The novelty of our solution is that
it is no longer Neyman-Pearson type where the final optimal portfolio takes
only two values. Instead, in the case where the portfolio value is required to
be bounded from above, the optimal solution takes three values; while in the
case where there is no upper bound, the optimal investment portfolio does not
exist, though a three-level portfolio still provides a sub-optimal solution
Mutual Fund Theorem for continuous time markets with random coefficients
We study the optimal investment problem for a continuous time incomplete
market model such that the risk-free rate, the appreciation rates and the
volatility of the stocks are all random; they are assumed to be independent
from the driving Brownian motion, and they are supposed to be currently
observable. It is shown that some weakened version of Mutual Fund Theorem holds
for this market for general class of utilities; more precisely, it is shown
that the supremum of expected utilities can be achieved on a sequence of
strategies with a certain distribution of risky assets that does not depend on
risk preferences described by different utilities.Comment: 17 page
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