Bayesian inference for queueing networks and modeling of internet services

Modern Internet services, such as those at Google, Yahoo!, and Amazon, handle billions of requests per day on clusters of thousands of computers. Because these services operate under strict performance requirements, a statistical understanding of their performance is of great practical interest. Such services are modeled by networks of queues, where each queue models one of the computers in the system. A key challenge is that the data are incomplete, because recording detailed information about every request to a heavily used system can require unacceptable overhead. In this paper we develop a Bayesian perspective on queueing models in which the arrival and departure times that are not observed are treated as latent variables. Underlying this viewpoint is the observation that a queueing model defines a deterministic transformation between the data and a set of independent variables called the service times. With this viewpoint in hand, we sample from the posterior distribution over missing data and model parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo. We evaluate our framework on data from a benchmark Web application. We also present a simple technique for selection among nested queueing models. We are unaware of any previous work that considers inference in networks of queues in the presence of missing data.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS392 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Closed queueing networks under congestion: non-bottleneck independence and bottleneck convergence

We analyze the behavior of closed product-form queueing networks when the number of customers grows to infinity and remains proportionate on each route (or class). First, we focus on the stationary behavior and prove the conjecture that the stationary distribution at non-bottleneck queues converges weakly to the stationary distribution of an ergodic, open product-form queueing network. This open network is obtained by replacing bottleneck queues with per-route Poissonian sources whose rates are determined by the solution of a strictly concave optimization problem. Then, we focus on the transient behavior of the network and use fluid limits to prove that the amount of fluid, or customers, on each route eventually concentrates on the bottleneck queues only, and that the long-term proportions of fluid in each route and in each queue solve the dual of the concave optimization problem that determines the throughputs of the previous open network.Comment: 22 page

Monotonicity and error bounds for networks of Erlang loss queues

Networks of Erlang loss queues naturally arise when modelling finite communication systems without delays, among which, most notably are (i) classical circuit switch telephone networks (loss networks) and (ii) present-day wireless mobile networks. Performance measures of interest such as loss probabilities or throughputs can be obtained from the steady state distribution. However, while this steady state distribution has a closed product form expression in the first case (loss networks), it does not have one in the second case due to blocked (and lost) handovers. Product form approximations are therefore suggested. These approximations are obtained by a combined modification of both the state space (by a hypercubic expansion) and the transition rates (by extra redial rates). It will be shown that these product form approximations lead to (1) upper bounds for loss probabilities and \ud (2) analytic error bounds for the accuracy of the approximation for various performance measures.\ud The proofs of these results rely upon both monotonicity results and an analytic error bound method as based on Markov reward theory. This combination and its technicalities are of interest by themselves. The technical conditions are worked out and verified for two specific applications:\ud (1)• pure loss networks as under (2)• GSM networks with fixed channel allocation as under.\ud The results are of practical interest for computational simplifications and, particularly, to guarantee that blocking probabilities do not exceed a given threshold such as for network dimensioning

A Fixed-Point Algorithm for Closed Queueing Networks

In this paper we propose a new efficient iterative scheme for solving closed queueing networks with phase-type service time distributions. The method is especially efficient and accurate in case of large numbers of nodes and large customer populations. We present the method, put it in perspective, and validate it through a large number of test scenarios. In most cases, the method provides accuracies within 5% relative error (in comparison to discrete-event simulation)

Monotonicity and error bounds for networks of Erlang loss queues

Networks of Erlang loss queues naturally arise when modelling finite communication systems without delays, among which, most notably\ud (i) classical circuit switch telephone networks (loss networks) and\ud (ii) present-day wireless mobile networks.\ud \ud Performance measures of interest such as loss probabilities or throughputs can be obtained from the steady state distribution. However, while this steady state distribution has a closed product form expression in the first case (loss networks), it has not in the second case due to blocked (and lost) handovers. Product form approximations are therefore suggested. These approximations are obtained by a combined modification of both the state space (by a hyper cubic expansion) and the transition rates (by extra redial rates). It will be shown that these product form approximations lead to\ud \ud - secure upper bounds for loss probabilities and\ud - analytic error bounds for the accuracy of the approximation for various performance measures.\ud \ud The proofs of these results rely upon both monotonicity results and an analytic error bound method as based on Markov reward theory. This combination and its technicalities are of interest by themselves. The technical conditions are worked out and verified for two specific applications:\ud \ud - pure loss networks as under (i)\ud - GSM-networks with fixed channel allocation as under (ii).\ud \ud The results are of practical interest for computational simplifications and, particularly, to guarantee blocking probabilities not to exceed a given threshold such as for network dimensioning.\u

Detecting Markov Chain Instability: A Monte Carlo Approach

We devise a Monte Carlo based method for detecting whether a non-negative Markov chain is stable for a given set of parameter values. More precisely, for a given subset of the parameter space, we develop an algorithm that is capable of deciding whether the set has a subset of positive Lebesgue measure for which the Markov chain is unstable. The approach is based on a variant of simulated annealing, and consequently only mild assumptions are needed to obtain performance guarantees. The theoretical underpinnings of our algorithm are based on a result stating that the stability of a set of parameters can be phrased in terms of the stability of a single Markov chain that searches the set for unstable parameters. Our framework leads to a procedure that is capable of performing statistically rigorous tests for instability, which has been extensively tested using several examples of standard and non-standard queueing networks