Resilient dynamic state estimation for power system using Cauchy-kernel-based maximum correntropy cubature Kalman filter

Accurate estimation of dynamic states is the key to monitoring power system operating conditions and controlling transient stability. The inevitable non-Gaussian noise and randomly occurring denial-of-service (DoS) attacks may, however, deteriorate the performance of standard filters seriously. To deal with these issues, a novel resilient cubature Kalman filter based on the Cauchy kernel maximum correntropy (CKMC) optimal criterion approach (termed CKMC-CKF) is developed, in which the Cauchy kernel function is used to describe the distance between vectors. Specifically, the errors of state and measurement in the cost function are unified by a statistical linearization technique, and the optimal estimated state is acquired by the fixed-point iteration method. Because of the salient thick-tailed feature and the insensitivity to the kernel bandwidth (KB) of Cauchy kernel function, the proposed CKMC-CKF can effectively mitigate the adverse effect of non-Gaussian noise and DoS attacks with better numerical stability. Finally, the efficacy of the proposed method is demonstrated on the standard IEEE 39-bus system under various abnormal conditions. Compared with standard cubature Kalman filter (CKF) and maximum correntropy criterion CKF (MCC-CKF), the proposed algorithm reveals better estimation accuracy and stronger resilience

Novel Computational Methods for State Space Filtering

The state-space formulation for time-dependent models has been long used invarious applications in science and engineering. While the classical Kalman filter(KF) provides optimal posterior estimation under linear Gaussian models, filteringin nonlinear and non-Gaussian environments remains challenging.Based on the Monte Carlo approximation, the classical particle filter (PF) can providemore precise estimation under nonlinear non-Gaussian models. However, it suffers fromparticle degeneracy. Drawing from optimal transport theory, the stochastic map filter(SMF) accommodates a solution to this problem, but its performance is influenced bythe limited flexibility of nonlinear map parameterisation. To account for these issues,a hybrid particle-stochastic map filter (PSMF) is first proposed in this thesis, wherethe two parts of the split likelihood are assimilated by the PF and SMF, respectively.Systematic resampling and smoothing are employed to alleviate the particle degeneracycaused by the PF. Furthermore, two PSMF variants based on the linear and nonlinearmaps (PSMF-L and PSMF-NL) are proposed, and their filtering performance is comparedwith various benchmark filters under different nonlinear non-Gaussian models.Although achieving accurate filtering results, the particle-based filters require expensive computations because of the large number of samples involved. Instead, robustKalman filters (RKFs) provide efficient solutions for the linear models with heavy-tailednoise, by adopting the recursive estimation framework of the KF. To exploit the stochasticcharacteristics of the noise, the use of heavy-tailed distributions which can fit variouspractical noises constitutes a viable solution. Hence, this thesis also introduces a novelRKF framework, RKF-SGαS, where the signal noise is assumed to be Gaussian and theheavy-tailed measurement noise is modelled by the sub-Gaussian α-stable (SGαS) distribution. The corresponding joint posterior distribution of the state vector and auxiliaryrandom variables is estimated by the variational Bayesian (VB) approach. Four differentminimum mean square error (MMSE) estimators of the scale function are presented.Besides, the RKF-SGαS is compared with the state-of-the-art RKFs under three kinds ofheavy-tailed measurement noises, and the simulation results demonstrate its estimationaccuracy and efficiency.One notable limitation of the proposed RKF-SGαS is its reliance on precise modelparameters, and substantial model errors can potentially impede its filtering performance. Therefore, this thesis also introduces a data-driven RKF method, referred to asRKFnet, which combines the conventional RKF framework with a deep learning technique. An unsupervised scheduled sampling technique (USS) is proposed to improve theistability of the training process. Furthermore, the advantages of the proposed RKFnetare quantified with respect to various traditional RKFs

Approximate Gaussian conjugacy: parametric recursive filtering under nonlinearity, multimodality, uncertainty, and constraint, and beyond

Since the landmark work of R. E. Kalman in the 1960s, considerable efforts have been devoted to time series state space models for a large variety of dynamic estimation problems. In particular, parametric filters that seek analytical estimates based on a closed-form Markov–Bayes recursion, e.g., recursion from a Gaussian or Gaussian mixture (GM) prior to a Gaussian/GM posterior (termed ‘Gaussian conjugacy’ in this paper), form the backbone for a general time series filter design. Due to challenges arising from nonlinearity, multimodality (including target maneuver), intractable uncertainties (such as unknown inputs and/or non-Gaussian noises) and constraints (including circular quantities), etc., new theories, algorithms, and technologies have been developed continuously to maintain such a conjugacy, or to approximate it as close as possible. They had contributed in large part to the prospective developments of time series parametric filters in the last six decades. In this paper, we review the state of the art in distinctive categories and highlight some insights that may otherwise be easily overlooked. In particular, specific attention is paid to nonlinear systems with an informative observation, multimodal systems including Gaussian mixture posterior and maneuvers, and intractable unknown inputs and constraints, to fill some gaps in existing reviews and surveys. In addition, we provide some new thoughts on alternatives to the first-order Markov transition model and on filter evaluation with regard to computing complexity

Cubature Kalman filter Based on generalized minimum error entropy with fiducial point

In real applications, non-Gaussian distributions are frequently caused by outliers and impulsive disturbances, and these will impair the performance of the classical cubature Kalman filter (CKF) algorithm. In this letter, a modified generalized minimum error entropy criterion with fiducial point (GMEEFP) is studied to ensure that the error comes together to around zero, and a new CKF algorithm based on the GMEEFP criterion, called GMEEFP-CKF algorithm, is developed. To demonstrate the practicality of the GMEEFP-CKF algorithm, several simulations are performed, and it is demonstrated that the proposed GMEEFP-CKF algorithm outperforms the existing CKF algorithms with impulse noise

Distributed fusion filter over lossy wireless sensor networks with the presence of non-Gaussian noise

The information transmission between nodes in a wireless sensor networks (WSNs) often causes packet loss due to denial-of-service (DoS) attack, energy limitations, and environmental factors, and the information that is successfully transmitted can also be contaminated by non-Gaussian noise. The presence of these two factors poses a challenge for distributed state estimation (DSE) over WSNs. In this paper, a generalized packet drop model is proposed to describe the packet loss phenomenon caused by DoS attacks and other factors. Moreover, a modified maximum correntropy Kalman filter is given, and it is extended to distributed form (DM-MCKF). In addition, a distributed modified maximum correntropy Kalman filter incorporating the generalized data packet drop (DM-MCKF-DPD) algorithm is provided to implement DSE with the presence of both non-Gaussian noise pollution and packet drop. A sufficient condition to ensure the convergence of the fixed-point iterative process of the DM-MCKF-DPD algorithm is presented and the computational complexity of the DM-MCKF-DPD algorithm is analyzed. Finally, the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed algorithms are verified by simulations