Bayesian data assimilation to support informed decision-making in individualized chemotherapy

An essential component of therapeutic drug/biomarker monitoring (TDM) is to combine patient data with prior knowledge for model-based predictions of therapy outcomes. Current Bayesian forecasting tools typically rely only on the most probable model parameters (maximum a-posteriori (MAP) estimate). This MAP-based approach, however, does neither necessarily predict the most probable outcome nor does it quantify the risks of treatment inefficacy or toxicity. Bayesian data assimilation (DA) methods overcome these limitations by providing a comprehensive uncertainty quantification. We compare DA methods with MAP-based approaches and show how probabilistic statements about key markers related to chemotherapy-induced neutropenia can be leveraged for more informative decision support in individualized chemotherapy. Sequential Bayesian DA proved to be most computational efficient for handling interoccasion variability and integrating TDM data. For new digital monitoring devices enabling more frequent data collection, these features will be of critical importance to improve patient care decisions in various therapeutic areas

Graph matching with a dual-step EM algorithm

This paper describes a new approach to matching geometric structure in 2D point-sets. The novel feature is to unify the tasks of estimating transformation geometry and identifying point-correspondence matches. Unification is realized by constructing a mixture model over the bipartite graph representing the correspondence match and by affecting optimization using the EM algorithm. According to our EM framework, the probabilities of structural correspondence gate contributions to the expected likelihood function used to estimate maximum likelihood transformation parameters. These gating probabilities measure the consistency of the matched neighborhoods in the graphs. The recovery of transformational geometry and hard correspondence matches are interleaved and are realized by applying coupled update operations to the expected log-likelihood function. In this way, the two processes bootstrap one another. This provides a means of rejecting structural outliers. We evaluate the technique on two real-world problems. The first involves the matching of different perspective views of 3.5-inch floppy discs. The second example is furnished by the matching of a digital map against aerial images that are subject to severe barrel distortion due to a line-scan sampling process. We complement these experiments with a sensitivity study based on synthetic data

Gaussian Message Passing for Overloaded Massive MIMO-NOMA

This paper considers a low-complexity Gaussian Message Passing (GMP) scheme for a coded massive Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO) systems with Non-Orthogonal Multiple Access (massive MIMO-NOMA), in which a base station with $N_s$ antennas serves $N_u$ sources simultaneously in the same frequency. Both $N_u$ and $N_s$ are large numbers, and we consider the overloaded cases with $N_u>N_s$. The GMP for MIMO-NOMA is a message passing algorithm operating on a fully-connected loopy factor graph, which is well understood to fail to converge due to the correlation problem. In this paper, we utilize the large-scale property of the system to simplify the convergence analysis of the GMP under the overloaded condition. First, we prove that the \emph{variances} of the GMP definitely converge to the mean square error (MSE) of Linear Minimum Mean Square Error (LMMSE) multi-user detection. Secondly, the \emph{means} of the traditional GMP will fail to converge when $N_u/N_s< (\sqrt{2}-1)^{-2}\approx5.83$. Therefore, we propose and derive a new convergent GMP called scale-and-add GMP (SA-GMP), which always converges to the LMMSE multi-user detection performance for any $N_u/N_s>1$, and show that it has a faster convergence speed than the traditional GMP with the same complexity. Finally, numerical results are provided to verify the validity and accuracy of the theoretical results presented.Comment: Accepted by IEEE TWC, 16 pages, 11 figure