Evaluation of Maximum a Posteriori Estimation as Data Assimilation Method for Forecasting Infiltration-Inflow Affected Urban Runoff with Radar Rainfall Input

High quality on-line flow forecasts are useful for real-time operation of urban drainage systems and wastewater treatment plants. This requires computationally efficient models, which are continuously updated with observed data to provide good initial conditions for the forecasts. This paper presents a way of updating conceptual rainfall-runoff models using Maximum a Posteriori estimation to determine the most likely parameter constellation at the current point in time. This is done by combining information from prior parameter distributions and the model goodness of fit over a predefined period of time that precedes the forecast. The method is illustrated for an urban catchment, where flow forecasts of 0–4 h are generated by applying a lumped linear reservoir model with three cascading reservoirs. Radar rainfall observations are used as input to the model. The effects of different prior standard deviations and lengths of the auto-calibration period on the resulting flow forecast performance are evaluated. We were able to demonstrate that, if properly tuned, the method leads to a significant increase in forecasting performance compared to a model without continuous auto-calibration. Delayed responses and erratic behaviour in the parameter variations are, however, observed and the choice of prior distributions and length of auto-calibration period is not straightforward

Detecting shock waves in cosmological smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations

We develop a formalism for the identification and accurate estimation of the strength of structure formation shocks during cosmological smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations. Shocks not only play a decisive role for the thermalization of gas in virialising structures but also for the acceleration of relativistic cosmic rays (CRs) through diffusive shock acceleration. Our formalism is applicable both to ordinary non-relativistic thermal gas, and to plasmas composed of CRs and thermal gas. To this end, we derive an analytical solution to the one-dimensional Riemann shock tube problem for a composite plasma of CRs and thermal gas. We apply our methods to study the properties of structure formation shocks in high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations of the LCDM model. We find that most of the energy is dissipated in weak internal shocks with Mach numbers M~2 which are predominantly central flow shocks or merger shock waves traversing halo centres. Collapsed cosmological structures are surrounded by external shocks with much higher Mach numbers up to M~1000, but they play only a minor role in the energy balance of thermalization. We show that after the epoch of cosmic reionisation the Mach number distribution is significantly modified by an efficient suppression of strong external shock waves due to the associated increase of the sound speed of the diffuse gas. Invoking a model for CR acceleration in shock waves, we find that the average strength of shock waves responsible for CR energy injection is higher than that for shocks that dominate the thermalization of the gas. When combined with radiative dissipation and star formation, our formalism can also be used to study CR injection by supernova shocks, or to construct models for shock-induced star formation in the interstellar medium. (abridged)Comment: 20 pages, 7 figures, just appeared in MNRAS, full resolution version available at http://www.cita.utoronto.ca/~pfrommer/Publications/MNRAS.367.113.pd