Kalman Filter Bibliography: Agriculture, Biology, and Medicine

27 pages, 1 article*Kalman Filter Bibliography: Agriculture, Biology, and Medicine* (Federer, Walter T.; Murty, B. R.) 27 page

Time Series Analysis

We provide a concise overview of time series analysis in the time and frequency domains, with lots of references for further reading.time series analysis, time domain, frequency domain

On the identification and parametric modelling of offshore dynamic systems

This thesis describes an investigation into the analysis methods arising from identification aspects of the theory of dynamic systems with application to full-scale offshore monitoring and marine environmental data including target spectra. Based on the input and output of the dynamic system, the System Identification (SI) techniques are used first to identify the model type and then to estimate the model parameters. This work also gives an understanding of how to obtain a meaningful matching between the target (power spectra or time series data sets) and SI models with minimal loss of information. The SI techniques, namely. Autoregressive (AR), Moving Average (MA) and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) algorithms are formulated in the frequency domain and also in the time domain. The above models can only be economically applicable provided the model order is low in the sense that it is computationally efficient and the lower order model can most appropriately represent the offshore time series records or the target spectra. For this purpose, the orders of the above SI models are optimally selected by Least Squares Error, Akaike Information Criterion and Minimum Description Length methods. A novel model order reduction technique is established to obtain the reduced order ARMA model. At first estimations of higher order AR coefficients are determined using modified Yule-Walker equations and then the first and second order real modes and their energies are determined. Considering only the higher energy modes, the AR part of the reduced order ARMA model is obtained. The MA part of the reduced order ARMA model is determined based on partial fraction and recursive methods. This model order reduction technique can remove the spurious noise modes which are present in the time series data. Therefore, firstly using an initial optimal AR model and then a model order reduction technique, the time series data or target spectrum can be reduced to a few parameters which are the coefficients of the reduced order ARMA model. The above univariate SI models and model order reduction techniques are successfully applied for marine environmental and structural monitoring data, including ocean waves, semi-submersible heave motions, monohull crane vessel motions and theoretical (Pierson- Moskowitz and JONSWAP) spectra. Univariate SI models are developed based on the assumption that the offshore dynamic systems are stationary random processes. For nonstationary processes, such as, measurements of combined sea waves and swells, or coupled responses of offshore structures with short period and long period motions, the time series are modelled by the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average algorithms. The multivariate autoregressive (MAR) algorithm is developed to reduce the time series wave data sets into MAR model parameters. The MAR algorithms are described by feedback weighting coefficients matrices and the driving noise vector. These are obtained based on the estimation of the partial correlation of the time series data sets. Here the appropriate model order is selected based on auto and cross correlations and multivariate Akaike information criterion methods. These algorithms are applied to estimate MAR power spectral density spectra and then phase and coherence spectra of two time series wave data sets collected at a North Sea location. The estimation of MAR power spectral densities are compared with spectral estimates computed from a two variable fast Fourier transform, which show good agreement

Time Series Analysis

We provide a concise overview of time series analysis in the time and frequency domains, with lots of references for further reading.time series analysis, time domain, frequency domain, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Estimation of Autoregressive Parameters from Noisy Observations Using Iterated Covariance Updates

Estimating the parameters of the autoregressive (AR) random process is a problem that has been well-studied. In many applications, only noisy measurements of AR process are available. The effect of the additive noise is that the system can be modeled as an AR model with colored noise, even when the measurement noise is white, where the correlation matrix depends on the AR parameters. Because of the correlation, it is expedient to compute using multiple stacked observations. Performing a weighted least-squares estimation of the AR parameters using an inverse covariance weighting can provide significantly better parameter estimates, with improvement increasing with the stack depth. The estimation algorithm is essentially a vector RLS adaptive filter, with time-varying covariance matrix. Different ways of estimating the unknown covariance are presented, as well as a method to estimate the variances of the AR and observation noise. The notation is extended to vector autoregressive (VAR) processes. Simulation results demonstrate performance improvements in coefficient error and in spectrum estimation

Data filtering-based least squares iterative algorithm for Hammerstein nonlinear systems by using the model decomposition

This paper focuses on the iterative identification problems for a class of Hammerstein nonlinear systems. By decomposing the system into two fictitious subsystems, a decomposition-based least squares iterative algorithm is presented for estimating the parameter vector in each subsystem. Moreover, a data filtering-based decomposition least squares iterative algorithm is proposed. The simulation results indicate that the data filtering-based least squares iterative algorithm can generate more accurate parameter estimates than the least squares iterative algorithm

Volatility forecasting

Volatility has been one of the most active and successful areas of research in time series econometrics and economic forecasting in recent decades. This chapter provides a selective survey of the most important theoretical developments and empirical insights to emerge from this burgeoning literature, with a distinct focus on forecasting applications. Volatility is inherently latent, and Section 1 begins with a brief intuitive account of various key volatility concepts. Section 2 then discusses a series of different economic situations in which volatility plays a crucial role, ranging from the use of volatility forecasts in portfolio allocation to density forecasting in risk management. Sections 3, 4 and 5 present a variety of alternative procedures for univariate volatility modeling and forecasting based on the GARCH, stochastic volatility and realized volatility paradigms, respectively. Section 6 extends the discussion to the multivariate problem of forecasting conditional covariances and correlations, and Section 7 discusses volatility forecast evaluation methods in both univariate and multivariate cases. Section 8 concludes briefly. JEL Klassifikation: C10, C53, G1

A MULTIVARIATE I(2) COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS OF GERMAN HYPERINFLATION

This paper re-examines the Cagan model of German hyperinflation during the 1920s under the twin hypotheses that the system contains variables that are I(2) and that a linear trend is required in the cointegrating relations. Using the recently developed I(2) cointegration analysis developed by Johansen (1992, 1995, 1997) extended by Paruolo (1996) and Rahbek et al. (1999) we find that the linear trend hypothesis is rejected for the sample. However, we provide conclusive evidence that money supply and the price level have a common I(2) component. Then, the validity of Cagan’s model is tested via a transformation of the I(2) to an I(1) model between real money balances and money growth or inflation. This transformation is not imposed on the data but it is shown to satisfy the statistical property of polynomial cointegration. Evidence is obtained in favor of cointegration between the two sets of variables which is however weakened by the sample dependence of the trace test that the application of the recursive stability tests for cointegrated VAR models show.I(2) analysis, hyperinflation, cointegration, identification, temporal stability

Linear State Models for Volatility Estimation and Prediction

This report covers the important topic of stochastic volatility modelling with an emphasis on linear state models. The approach taken focuses on comparing models based on their ability to fit the data and their forecasting performance. To this end several parsimonious stochastic volatility models are estimated using realised volatility, a volatility proxy from high frequency stock price data. The results indicate that a hidden state space model performs the best among the realised volatility-based models under consideration. For the state space model different sampling intervals are compared based on in-sample prediction performance. The comparisons are partly based on the multi-period prediction results that are derived in this report