Thin-shell concentration for random vectors in Orlicz balls via moderate deviations and Gibbs measures

In this paper, we study the asymptotic thin-shell width concentration for random vectors uniformly distributed in Orlicz balls. We provide both asymptotic upper and lower bounds on the probability of such a random vector $X_n$ being in a thin shell of radius $\sqrt{n}$ times the asymptotic value of $n^{-1/2}\left(\mathbb E\left[\| X_n\|_2^2\right]\right)^{1/2}$ (as $n\to\infty$), showing that in certain ranges our estimates are optimal. In particular, our estimates significantly improve upon the currently best known general Lee-Vempala bound when the deviation parameter $t=t_n$ goes down to zero as the dimension $n$ of the ambient space increases. We shall also determine in this work the precise asymptotic value of the isotropic constant for Orlicz balls. Our approach is based on moderate deviation principles and a connection between the uniform distribution on Orlicz balls and Gibbs measures at certain critical inverse temperatures with potentials given by Orlicz functions, an idea recently presented by Kabluchko and Prochno in [The maximum entropy principle and volumetric properties of Orlicz balls, J. Math. Anal. Appl. {\bf 495}(1) 2021, 1--19].Comment: 27 page

Thin-shell concentration for random vectors in Orlicz balls via moderate deviations and Gibbs measures

In this paper, we study the asymptotic thin-shell width concentration for random vectors uniformly distributed in Orlicz balls. We provide both asymptotic upper and lower bounds on the probability of such a random vector $X_n$ being in a thin shell of radius $\sqrt{n}$ times the asymptotic value of n^{-1/2}\left(\E\left[\Vert X_n\Vert_2^2\right]\right)^{1/2} (as $n\to\infty$), showing that in certain ranges our estimates are optimal. In particular, our estimates significantly improve upon the currently best known general Lee-Vempala bound when the deviation parameter $t=t_n$ goes down to zero as the dimension $n$ of the ambient space increases. We shall also determine in this work the precise asymptotic value of the isotropic constant for Orlicz balls. Our approach is based on moderate deviation principles and a connection between the uniform distribution on Orlicz balls and Gibbs measures at certain critical inverse temperatures with potentials given by Orlicz functions, an idea recently presented by Kabluchko and Prochno in [The maximum entropy principle and volumetric properties of Orlicz balls, J. Math. Anal. Appl. {\bf 495}(1) 2021, 1--19]

Large Deviation Principles and Complete Equivalence and Nonequivalence Results for Pure and Mixed Ensembles

We consider a general class of statistical mechanical models of coherent structures in turbulence, which includes models of two-dimensional fluid motion, quasi-geostrophic flows, and dispersive waves. First, large deviation principles are proved for the canonical ensemble and the microcanonical ensemble. For each ensemble the set of equilibrium macrostates is defined as the set on which the corresponding rate function attains its minimum of 0. We then present complete equivalence and nonequivalence results at the level of equilibrium macrostates for the two ensembles.Comment: 57 page

The large deviation approach to statistical mechanics

The theory of large deviations is concerned with the exponential decay of probabilities of large fluctuations in random systems. These probabilities are important in many fields of study, including statistics, finance, and engineering, as they often yield valuable information about the large fluctuations of a random system around its most probable state or trajectory. In the context of equilibrium statistical mechanics, the theory of large deviations provides exponential-order estimates of probabilities that refine and generalize Einstein's theory of fluctuations. This review explores this and other connections between large deviation theory and statistical mechanics, in an effort to show that the mathematical language of statistical mechanics is the language of large deviation theory. The first part of the review presents the basics of large deviation theory, and works out many of its classical applications related to sums of random variables and Markov processes. The second part goes through many problems and results of statistical mechanics, and shows how these can be formulated and derived within the context of large deviation theory. The problems and results treated cover a wide range of physical systems, including equilibrium many-particle systems, noise-perturbed dynamics, nonequilibrium systems, as well as multifractals, disordered systems, and chaotic systems. This review also covers many fundamental aspects of statistical mechanics, such as the derivation of variational principles characterizing equilibrium and nonequilibrium states, the breaking of the Legendre transform for nonconcave entropies, and the characterization of nonequilibrium fluctuations through fluctuation relations.Comment: v1: 89 pages, 18 figures, pdflatex. v2: 95 pages, 20 figures, text, figures and appendices added, many references cut, close to published versio

Maximum Entropy Production Principle for Stock Returns

In our previous studies we have investigated the structural complexity of time series describing stock returns on New York's and Warsaw's stock exchanges, by employing two estimators of Shannon's entropy rate based on Lempel-Ziv and Context Tree Weighting algorithms, which were originally used for data compression. Such structural complexity of the time series describing logarithmic stock returns can be used as a measure of the inherent (model-free) predictability of the underlying price formation processes, testing the Efficient-Market Hypothesis in practice. We have also correlated the estimated predictability with the profitability of standard trading algorithms, and found that these do not use the structure inherent in the stock returns to any significant degree. To find a way to use the structural complexity of the stock returns for the purpose of predictions we propose the Maximum Entropy Production Principle as applied to stock returns, and test it on the two mentioned markets, inquiring into whether it is possible to enhance prediction of stock returns based on the structural complexity of these and the mentioned principle.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figure