A new paradigm for uncertain knowledge representation by Plausible Petri nets

This paper presents a new model for Petri nets (PNs) which combines PN principles with the foundations of information theory for uncertain knowledge representation. The resulting framework has been named Plausible Petri nets (PPNs). The main feature of PPNs resides in their efficiency to jointly consider the evolution of a discrete event system together with uncertain information about the system state using states of information. The paper overviews relevant concepts of information theory and uncertainty representation, and presents an algebraic method to formally consider the evolution of uncertain state variables within the PN dynamics. To illustrate some of the real-world challenges relating to uncertainty that can be handled using a PPN, an example of an expert system is provided, demonstrating how condition monitoring data and expert opinion can be modelled

Measurements, Models, Systems and Design

531 s.

Mining conditional partial order graphs from event logs

Process mining techniques rely on event logs: the extraction of a process model (discovery) takes an event log as the input, the adequacy of a process model (conformance) is checked against an event log, and the enhancement of a process model is performed by using available data in the log. Several notations and formalisms for event log representation have been proposed in the recent years to enable efficient algorithms for the aforementioned process mining problems. In this paper we show how Conditional Partial Order Graphs (CPOGs), a recently introduced formalism for compact representation of families of partial orders, can be used in the process mining field, in particular for addressing the problem of compact and easy-to-comprehend representation of event logs with data. We present algorithms for extracting both the control flow as well as the relevant data parameters from a given event log and show how CPOGs can be used for efficient and effective visualisation of the obtained results. We demonstrate that the resulting representation can be used to reveal the hidden interplay between the control and data flows of a process, thereby opening way for new process mining techniques capable of exploiting this interplay. Finally, we present open-source software support and discuss current limitations of the proposed approach.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

From Epidemic to Pandemic Modelling

We present a methodology for systematically extending epidemic models to multilevel and multiscale spatio-temporal pandemic ones. Our approach builds on the use of coloured stochastic and continuous Petri nets facilitating the sound component-based extension of basic SIR models to include population stratification and also spatio-geographic information and travel connections, represented as graphs, resulting in robust stratified pandemic metapopulation models. This method is inherently easy to use, producing scalable and reusable models with a high degree of clarity and accessibility which can be read either in a deterministic or stochastic paradigm. Our method is supported by a publicly available platform PetriNuts; it enables the visual construction and editing of models; deterministic, stochastic and hybrid simulation as well as structural and behavioural analysis. All the models are available as supplementary material, ensuring reproducibility.Comment: 79 pages (with Appendix), 23 figures, 7 table

Heterogeneous Feature Representation for Digital Twin-Oriented Complex Networked Systems

Building models of Complex Networked Systems (CNS) that can accurately represent reality forms an important research area. To be able to reflect real world systems, the modelling needs to consider not only the intensity of interactions between the entities but also features of all the elements of the system. This study aims to improve the expressive power of node features in Digital Twin-Oriented Complex Networked Systems (DT-CNSs) with heterogeneous feature representation principles. This involves representing features with crisp feature values and fuzzy sets, each describing the objective and the subjective inductions of the nodes' features and feature differences. Our empirical analysis builds DT-CNSs to recreate realistic physical contact networks in different countries from real node feature distributions based on various representation principles and an optimised feature preference. We also investigate their respective disaster resilience to an epidemic outbreak starting from the most popular node. The results suggest that the increasing flexibility of feature representation with fuzzy sets improves the expressive power and enables more accurate modelling. In addition, the heterogeneous features influence the network structure and the speed of the epidemic outbreak, requiring various mitigation policies targeted at different people

A systems biology approach to multi-scale modelling and analysis of planar cell polarity in drosophila melanogaster wing

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.Systems biology aims to describe and understand biology at a global scale where biological systems function as a result of complex mechanisms that happen at several scales. Modelling and simulation are computational tools that are invaluable for description, understanding and prediction these mechanisms in a quantitative and integrative way. Thus multi-scale methods that couple the design, simulation and analysis of models spanning several spatial and temporal scales is becoming a new emerging focus of systems biology. This thesis uses an exemplar – Planar cell polarity (PCP) signalling – to illustrate a generic approach to model biological systems at different spatial scales, using the new concept of Hierarchically Coloured Petri Nets (HCPN). PCP signalling refers to the coordinated polarisation of cells within the plane of various epithelial tissues to generate sub-cellular asymmetry along an axis orthogonal to their apical-basal axes. This polarisation is required for many developmental events in both vertebrates and non-vertebrates. Defects in PCP in vertebrates are responsible for developmental abnormalities in multiple tissues including the neural tube, the kidney and the inner ear. In Drosophila wing, PCP is seen in the parallel orientation of hairs that protrude from each of the approximately 30,000 epithelial cells to robustly point toward the wing tip. This work applies HCPN to model a tissue comprising multiple cells hexagonally packed in a honeycomb formation in order to describe the phenomenon of Planar Cell Polarity (PCP) in Drosophila wing. HCPN facilitate the construction of mathematically tractable, compact and parameterised large-scale models. Different levels of abstraction that can be used in order to simplify such a complex system are first illustrated. The PCP system is first represented at an abstract level without modelling details of the cell. Each cell is then sub-divided into seven virtual compartments with adjacent cells being coupled via the formation of intercellular complexes. A more detailed model is later developed, describing the intra- and inter-cellular signalling mechanisms involved in PCP signalling. The initial model is for a wild-type organism, and then a family of related models, permitting different hypotheses to be explored regarding the mechanisms underlying PCP, are constructed. Among them, the largest model consists of 800 cells which when unfolded yields 164,000 places (each of which is described by an ordinary differential equation). This thesis illustrates the power and validity of the approach by showing how the models can be easily adapted to describe well-documented genetic mutations in the Drosophila wing using the proposed approach including clustering and model checking over time series of primary and secondary data, which can be employed to analyse and check such multi-scale models similar to the case of PCP. The HCPN models support the interpretation of biological observations reported in literature and are able to make sensible predictions. As HCPN model multi-scale systems in a compact, parameterised and scalable way, this modelling approach can be applied to other large-scale or multi-scale systems.This study was funded by Brunel University