Clarifying Resilience: an invited comment

So, we all know what resilience is, don’t we? The National Academies recently said building disaster resilience capacity in our communities should be a national imperative (National Academies 2012).So resilience must be a tangible thing, right

Assessing, valuing and protecting our environment- is there a statistical challenge to be answered?

This short article describes some of the evolution in environmental regulation, management and monitoring and the information needs, closely aligned to the statistical challenges to deliver the evidence base for change and effect

Creating business value from big data and business analytics : organizational, managerial and human resource implications

This paper reports on a research project, funded by the EPSRC’s NEMODE (New Economic Models in the Digital Economy, Network+) programme, explores how organizations create value from their increasingly Big Data and the challenges they face in doing so. Three case studies are reported of large organizations with a formal business analytics group and data volumes that can be considered to be ‘big’. The case organizations are MobCo, a mobile telecoms operator, MediaCo, a television broadcaster, and CityTrans, a provider of transport services to a major city. Analysis of the cases is structured around a framework in which data and value creation are mediated by the organization’s business analytics capability. This capability is then studied through a sociotechnical lens of organization/management, process, people, and technology. From the cases twenty key findings are identified. In the area of data and value creation these are: 1. Ensure data quality, 2. Build trust and permissions platforms, 3. Provide adequate anonymization, 4. Share value with data originators, 5. Create value through data partnerships, 6. Create public as well as private value, 7. Monitor and plan for changes in legislation and regulation. In organization and management: 8. Build a corporate analytics strategy, 9. Plan for organizational and cultural change, 10. Build deep domain knowledge, 11. Structure the analytics team carefully, 12. Partner with academic institutions, 13. Create an ethics approval process, 14. Make analytics projects agile, 15. Explore and exploit in analytics projects. In technology: 16. Use visualization as story-telling, 17. Be agnostic about technology while the landscape is uncertain (i.e., maintain a focus on value). In people and tools: 18. Data scientist personal attributes (curious, problem focused), 19. Data scientist as ‘bricoleur’, 20. Data scientist acquisition and retention through challenging work. With regards to what organizations should do if they want to create value from their data the paper further proposes: a model of the analytics eco-system that places the business analytics function in a broad organizational context; and a process model for analytics implementation together with a six-stage maturity model

Wetropolis extreme rainfall and flood demonstrator: from mathematical design to outreach

Government and consulting experts on flood mitigation generally face difficulties when trying to explain the science of extreme flooding to the general public, in particular the concept of a return period. Too often, for example, people perceive they are safe for the next 100 years after a 1:100-year return-period flood has hit their town. UK flood practitioners therefore gave us the challenge to design an outreach tool that conceptualises the science of flooding in a way that is accessible to and directly engages the public, and in particular demonstrates what a return period is. Furthermore, we were tasked with designing a live 3-D physical model rather than a graphical or animated 2-D game on a screen. We show here how we tackled that challenge by designing, constructing, and showcasing the Wetropolis Flood Demonstrator. Wetropolis is a transportable and conceptual physical model with random rainfall, river flow, a flood plain, an upland reservoir, a porous moor, representing the upper catchment and visualising groundwater flow, and a city which can flood following extreme and random rainfall. A key novelty is the supply of rainfall every Wetropolis day. Several aspects of Wetropolis are considered. i. We present the modular mathematical and numerical design on which Wetropolis is based. It guided the choice of parameter values of Wetropolis, which was loosely inspired by the Leeds Boxing Day floods of the River Aire in 2015. The design model further serves as the building block and inspiration for adaptations suited to particular local demands. Moreover, the model is purposely lean and therefore quick to compute, serving flexibility in the outreach-tool design, but is less suitable for any detailed scientific validation. ii. The constructed Wetropolis is described here in broad terms, but we include a link to a GitHub site with details to inspire other bespoke designs. The goal, again, is to facilitate new adaptations of Wetropolis for particular catchments different to the Leeds River Aire case. iii. Our experience in showcasing Wetropolis is summarised and discussed, with the purpose of giving an overview as well as inspiring improved and bespoke adaptations. While Wetropolis should be experienced live, with videos found on the GitHub site, here we provide a photographic overview. To date, Wetropolis has been showcased to 500 to 1000 people at public workshops and exhibitions on recent UK floods, as well as to flood practitioners and scientists at various research and stakeholder workshops. iv. We conclude with some ongoing design changes, including how people can experience natural flood management in a revised Wetropolis design. Finally, we also discuss how Wetropolis, although originally focussed solely on outreach, led to a new cost-effectiveness analysis and protocol for assessing flood-mitigation plans and inspired other physical models for use in education and water management

Culture and disaster risk management - citizens’ reactions and opinions during Citizen Summit in Utrecht, Netherlands

The analyses and results in this document are based on the data collected during the sixth Citizen Summit held in Utrecht, the Netherlands on May 12th, 2018. Like the previous five Citizen Summits held in Romania, Malta, Italy, Germany, and Portugal, this Citizen Summit was designed as a one-day event combining public information with feedback gathering through different methods of data collection. In the morning session, the event started with a presentation of the CARISMAND project and its main goals and concepts, and the planned CARISMAND Toolkit functionalities. Then, overall 27 questions with pre-defined answer options were posed to the audience and responses collected via an audience response system. As in the previous Citizen Summits, all questions in this part of the event aimed to explore citizens’ attitudes, perceptions, and intended behaviours related to disaster risks. Comparing and contrasting the respective results of all six Citizen Summits in the final synthesised analysis (Deliverable D5.9) will aim to provide additional insight into cultural factors that may affect disaster-related preparedness and response. Between these questions, additional presentations were held that informed the audience about state-of-the-art disaster preparedness and response topics (e.g., large-scale disaster scenario exercises, use of social media, and mobile phone apps). Furthermore, this last round of Citizen Summits was organised and specifically designed to discuss and collect feedback on recommendations for citizens, which have all been formulated on the basis of Work Packages 2-10 results and in coordination with the Work Package 11 brief. These Toolkit recommendations are envisaged to form one of the core elements of the Work Package 9 CARISMAND Toolkit. Additionally, following the cyclical design of CARISMAND events (and wherever meaningful and possible), they “mirror” the respective recommendations for practitioners, which were discussed in the last (third) CARISMAND Stakeholder Assembly held in Lisbon in February 2018, and they are structured in two, main “sets”: A. Developing a personal “culture of preparedness” B. Taking part in disaster preparedness and response activities. These two sets of recommendations were also presented in detail during the morning session to the participating citizens. In the afternoon session, small moderated group discussions of approximately 2 hours’ duration were held, which aimed to gather the citizens’ direct feedback on the two sets of Toolkit recommendations presented in the morning, following a detailed discussion guideline. For a detailed overview of all questions asked and topics discussed, please see Appendix A. Overall, 89 citizens participated in the Netherlands’ event. The total sample shows a relatively even gender and age distribution, which is unsurprising given the target quotas that were requested from the recruiting local market research agency. The lower number of senior citizens aged 65 and above was expected and reflects mobility issues. Participants were asked about three key aspects of experience of disasters and disaster risk perception that could potentially have an impact on how other questions were answered. Almost three out of five respondents (58.1%) indicated that they, or a close friend or family member, have experienced a disaster, whereas only one out of five (20.7%) felt that they are currently living in an area that is specifically prone to disasters, but 44.2% answered that they know other people in the area where they live who they think are particularly vulnerable or exposed to disasters. Slight gender- and age-related differences in the responses to these questions were found to be not statistically significant (p>=.05). The rest of this report is structured in five main sections: After this introduction, the second section will provide an overview of the different methods applied. The third section, based on the quantitative data collected via the audience response system, presents the results from questions on general disaster risk perceptions, disaster preparedness, and behaviours in disaster situations with a particular focus on the use of mobile phone apps and social media. In the fourth section, based on the qualitative data collected in the ten discussion groups, the analyses will provide detailed insight into the participants’ feedback on the two sets of recommendations for citizens presented in the morning session. The final section compares and contrasts the results from sections 3 and 4, draws conclusions, and presents proposed changes and amendments to the Work Package 9 Toolkit recommendations based on the participating citizens’ suggestions.The project was co-funded by the European Commission within the Horizon2020 Programme (2014-2020).peer-reviewe

E. coli O157 on Scottish cattle farms: evidence of local spread and persistence using repeat cross-sectional data

<b>Background</b><p></p> Escherichia coli (E. coli) O157 is a virulent zoonotic strain of enterohaemorrhagic E. coli. In Scotland (1998-2008) the annual reported rate of human infection is 4.4 per 100,000 population which is consistently higher than other regions of the UK and abroad. Cattle are the primary reservoir. Thus understanding infection dynamics in cattle is paramount to reducing human infections.<p></p> A large database was created for farms sampled in two cross-sectional surveys carried out in Scotland (1998 - 2004). A statistical model was generated to identify risk factors for the presence of E. coli O157 on farms. Specific hypotheses were tested regarding the presence of E. coli O157 on local farms and the farms previous status. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) profiles were further examined to ascertain whether local spread or persistence of strains could be inferred.<p></p> <b>Results</b><p></p> The presence of an E. coli O157 positive local farm (average distance: 5.96km) in the Highlands, North East and South West, farm size and the number of cattle moved onto the farm 8 weeks prior to sampling were significant risk factors for the presence of E. coli O157 on farms. Previous status of a farm was not a significant predictor of current status (p = 0.398). Farms within the same sampling cluster were significantly more likely to be the same PFGE type (p < 0.001), implicating spread of strains between local farms. Isolates with identical PFGE types were observed to persist across the two surveys, including 3 that were identified on the same farm, suggesting an environmental reservoir. PFGE types that were persistent were more likely to have been observed in human clinical infections in Scotland (p < 0.001) from the same time frame.<p></p> <b>Conclusions</b><p></p> The results of this study demonstrate the spread of E. coli O157 between local farms and highlight the potential link between persistent cattle strains and human clinical infections in Scotland. This novel insight into the epidemiology of Scottish E. coli O157 paves the way for future research into the mechanisms of transmission which should help with the design of control measures to reduce E. coli O157 from livestock-related sources