7,210 research outputs found
Sequential Monte Carlo pricing of American-style options under stochastic volatility models
We introduce a new method to price American-style options on underlying
investments governed by stochastic volatility (SV) models. The method does not
require the volatility process to be observed. Instead, it exploits the fact
that the optimal decision functions in the corresponding dynamic programming
problem can be expressed as functions of conditional distributions of
volatility, given observed data. By constructing statistics summarizing
information about these conditional distributions, one can obtain high quality
approximate solutions. Although the required conditional distributions are in
general intractable, they can be arbitrarily precisely approximated using
sequential Monte Carlo schemes. The drawback, as with many Monte Carlo schemes,
is potentially heavy computational demand. We present two variants of the
algorithm, one closely related to the well-known least-squares Monte Carlo
algorithm of Longstaff and Schwartz [The Review of Financial Studies 14 (2001)
113-147], and the other solving the same problem using a "brute force" gridding
approach. We estimate an illustrative SV model using Markov chain Monte Carlo
(MCMC) methods for three equities. We also demonstrate the use of our algorithm
by estimating the posterior distribution of the market price of volatility risk
for each of the three equities.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOAS286 the Annals of
Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
Evolutionary-based sparse regression for the experimental identification of duffing oscillator
In this paper, an evolutionary-based sparse regression algorithm is proposed and applied onto experimental data collected from a Duffing oscillator setup and numerical simulation data. Our purpose is to identify the Coulomb friction terms as part of the ordinary differential equation of the system. Correct identification of this nonlinear system using sparse identification is hugely dependent on selecting the correct form of nonlinearity included in the function library. Consequently, in this work, the evolutionary-based sparse identification is replacing the need for user knowledge when constructing the library in sparse identification. Constructing the library based on the data-driven evolutionary approach is an effective way to extend the space of nonlinear functions, allowing for the sparse regression to be applied on an extensive space of functions. The results show that the method provides an effective algorithm for the purpose of unveiling the physical nature of the Duffing oscillator. In addition, the robustness of the identification algorithm is investigated for various levels of noise in simulation. The proposed method has possible applications to other nonlinear dynamic systems in mechatronics, robotics, and electronics
Optimization viewpoint on Kalman smoothing, with applications to robust and sparse estimation
In this paper, we present the optimization formulation of the Kalman
filtering and smoothing problems, and use this perspective to develop a variety
of extensions and applications. We first formulate classic Kalman smoothing as
a least squares problem, highlight special structure, and show that the classic
filtering and smoothing algorithms are equivalent to a particular algorithm for
solving this problem. Once this equivalence is established, we present
extensions of Kalman smoothing to systems with nonlinear process and
measurement models, systems with linear and nonlinear inequality constraints,
systems with outliers in the measurements or sudden changes in the state, and
systems where the sparsity of the state sequence must be accounted for. All
extensions preserve the computational efficiency of the classic algorithms, and
most of the extensions are illustrated with numerical examples, which are part
of an open source Kalman smoothing Matlab/Octave package.Comment: 46 pages, 11 figure
A unified framework for solving a general class of conditional and robust set-membership estimation problems
In this paper we present a unified framework for solving a general class of
problems arising in the context of set-membership estimation/identification
theory. More precisely, the paper aims at providing an original approach for
the computation of optimal conditional and robust projection estimates in a
nonlinear estimation setting where the operator relating the data and the
parameter to be estimated is assumed to be a generic multivariate polynomial
function and the uncertainties affecting the data are assumed to belong to
semialgebraic sets. By noticing that the computation of both the conditional
and the robust projection optimal estimators requires the solution to min-max
optimization problems that share the same structure, we propose a unified
two-stage approach based on semidefinite-relaxation techniques for solving such
estimation problems. The key idea of the proposed procedure is to recognize
that the optimal functional of the inner optimization problems can be
approximated to any desired precision by a multivariate polynomial function by
suitably exploiting recently proposed results in the field of parametric
optimization. Two simulation examples are reported to show the effectiveness of
the proposed approach.Comment: Accpeted for publication in the IEEE Transactions on Automatic
Control (2014
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