SOPHIA

The Iraqi Insurgency (2003–2011) has commonly been characterized as demonstrating the tendency for violence to cluster and diffuse at the local level. Recent research has demonstrated that insurgent attacks in Iraq cluster in time and space in a manner similar to that observed for the spread of a disease. The current study employs a variety of approaches common to the scientific study of criminal activities to advance our understanding of the correlates of observed patterns of the incidence and contagion of insurgent attacks. We hypothesize that the precise patterns will vary from one place to another, but that more attacks will occur in areas that are heavily populated, where coalition forces are active, and along road networks. To test these hypotheses, we use a fishnet to build a geographical model of Baghdad that disaggregates the city into more than 3000 grid cell locations. A number of logistic regression models with spatial and temporal lags are employed to explore patterns of local escalation and diffusion. These models demonstrate the validity of arguments under each of three models but suggest, overall, that risk heterogeneity arguments provide the most compelling and consistent account of the location of insurgency. In particular, the results demonstrate that violence is most likely at locations with greater population levels, higher density of roads, and military garrisons

The use of system dynamics analysis and modeling techniques to explore policy levers in the fight against Middle Eastern terrorist groups

MBA Professional ReportThe objective of this project is to use analysis and modeling techniques of Systems Dynamics to capture the causal relationships of Middle Eastern groups' terrorist activities against the U.S. based on their ideological drivers, as well as the effect of U.S. policies that create dynamics and affect performance and outcomes. The main focus of this analysis is the terrorist groups' human resources. The hypothesis is that Middle Eastern terrorism against the U.S. is affected by the U.S. level of military presence and/or investment in the Middle Eastern nations. A considerable and lasting reduction in fatalities originated by Middle Eastern groups' terrorist attacks against the U.S. can be achieved through a policy that reduces both the human resources available to terrorist groups and their attack capability (level of sophistication). The study covers the implications of this resource reduction policy, which may include incremental military investment, defection motivators, antiterrorism and the use of counter-terrorism operations. These operations will reduce the sophistication as well as the recruitment rate to levels where cells' functionality will be impaired, and thus unable to carry high lethality attacks.http://archive.org/details/theuseofsystemdy1094510022Dominican Republic Navy autho

Household economic decisions under the shadow of terrorism : [This Version: January 4, 2009]

We investigate, using the 2002 US Health and Retirement Study, the factors influencing individuals’ insecurity and expectations about terrorism, and study the effects these last have on households’ portfolio choices and spending patterns. We find that females, the religiously devout, those equipped with a better memory, the less educated, and those living close to where the events of September 2001 took place worry a lot about their safety. In addition, fear of terrorism discourages households from investing in stocks, mostly through the high levels of insecurity felt by females. Insecurity due to terrorism also makes single men less likely to own a business. Finally, we find evidence of expenditure shifting away from recreational activities that can potentially leave one exposed to a terrorist attack and towards goods that might help one cope with the consequences of terrorism materially (increased use of car and spending on the house) or psychologically (spending on personal care products by females in couples)

Svalbard and Conflict Management in a Changing Climate: A Risk Based Approach

Conflict in the Arctic is nothing new, and Svalbard is a geographical confluence of factors that create the potential for inter-group violence. The purpose of this paper is to explore those factors, identifying approaches to the evaluation of their associated risk. The emphasis is on biomarine resources, which at present constitute the most likely focus for escalating disputes. Contributory factors, including the catalytic effects of climate change, will also be considered. Given the political progress that has been achieved recently, the most likely situation for an intense interstate conflict in the short term is one that spreads tothe Arctic, rather than one igniting within it. However, as the century progresses, dormant problems relating to the Svalbard archipelago will combine with environmental, economic and political trends to exacerbate conflict risk. Traditionally, armed conflict has been viewed as a phenomenon that cannot be predicted. This view is identified as dangerously misleading. Using a risk based approach and noting advances in analytical techniques, representative scenarios in which conflict may occur are examined and prospective methods of risk management identified

Household Economic Decisions under the Shadow of Terrorism

We investigate, using the 2002 US Health and Retirement Study, the factors influencing individuals’ insecurity and expectations about terrorism, and study the effects these last have on households’ portfolio choices and spending patterns. We find that females, the religiously devout, those equipped with a better memory, the less educated, and those living close to where the events of September 2001 took place worry a lot about their safety. In addition, fear of terrorism discourages households from investing in stocks, mostly through the high levels of insecurity felt by females. Insecurity due to terrorism also makes single men less likely to own a business. Finally, we find evidence of expenditure shifting away from recreational activities that can potentially leave one exposed to a terrorist attack and towards goods that might help one cope with the consequences of terrorism materially (increased use of car and spending on the house) or psychologically (spending on personal care products by females in couples).terrorism, expectations, household finance, demand analysis

Perspectives for Cyber Strategists on Law for Cyberwar

The proliferation of martial rhetoric in connection with the release of thousands of pages of sensitive government documents by the WikiLeaks organization underlines how easily words that have legal meanings can be indiscriminately applied to cyber events in ways that can confuse decision makers and strategists alike. The WikiLeaks phenomenon is but the latest in a series of recent cyber-related incidents––ranging from cyber crises in Estonia and Georgia to reports of the Stuxnet cyberworm allegedly infecting Iranian computers––that have contributed to a growing perception that “cyberwar” is inevitable, if not already underway. All of this generates a range of legal questions, with popular wisdom being that the law is inadequate or lacking entirely. Lt Gen Keith B. Alexander, the first commander of US Cyber Command, told Congress at his April 2010 confirmation hearings that there was a “mismatch between our technical capabilities to conduct operations and the governing laws and policies.” Likewise, Jeffrey Addicott, a highly respected cyber-law authority, asserts that “international laws associated with the use of force are woefully inadequate in terms of addressing the threat of cyberwarfare.” This article takes a somewhat different tact concerning the ability of the law of armed conflict (LOAC) to address cyber issues. Specifically, it argues that while there is certainly room for improvement in some areas, the basic tenets of LOAC are sufficient to address the most important issues of cyberwar. Among other things, this article contends that very often the real difficulty with respect to the law and cyberwar is not any lack of “law,” per se, but rather in the complexities that arise in determining the necessary facts which must be applied to the law to render legal judgments

Synchronic Analysis of Adversarial Attacks in Syria Committed by the Islamic State

Militarized technologies, large support infrastructures, and the unintended consequences of increased violence demonstrate that the current strategies are unsustainable to end modern conflict. However, the potential exists to precisely identify patterns from empirically reduced adversarial behaviors. Therefore, the purpose of this quantitative, non-experimental synchronic retrospective analysis was to determine the relationship between the distance, fatalities, and time (independent variables) to the hazard force (dependent variable) executed by ISIS in Syria between the years 2007 to 2015. A data set containing 12,326 records for attacks committed by U.S. adversaries in 20 countries between the years of 2007-2015 was analyzed using multiple linear regression. The theoretical foundation for this study was based on symmetrical and asymmetrical applied gaming theory, which differentiates between adversarial sizes and strategies. According to this theory, the potential direction between two attacks occurs because (a) adversaries operate with rationality, and (b) between any two targets (A and B); the rational preference is determined when the ratio of value of B over A is greater than A over B. This rational preference was calculated as intensity and was called hazard force. The analysis demonstrated a statistically significant association between fatalities and distance. The potential for positive social change as a result of this study may be through modeling adversarial events more accurately, reducing human costs, and redirecting finite resources to greater human endeavors, or creating policies with greater efficacy