Accumulation of driver and passenger mutations during tumor progression

Major efforts to sequence cancer genomes are now occurring throughout the world. Though the emerging data from these studies are illuminating, their reconciliation with epidemiologic and clinical observations poses a major challenge. In the current study, we provide a novel mathematical model that begins to address this challenge. We model tumors as a discrete time branching process that starts with a single driver mutation and proceeds as each new driver mutation leads to a slightly increased rate of clonal expansion. Using the model, we observe tremendous variation in the rate of tumor development - providing an understanding of the heterogeneity in tumor sizes and development times that have been observed by epidemiologists and clinicians. Furthermore, the model provides a simple formula for the number of driver mutations as a function of the total number of mutations in the tumor. Finally, when applied to recent experimental data, the model allows us to calculate, for the first time, the actual selective advantage provided by typical somatic mutations in human tumors in situ. This selective advantage is surprisingly small, 0.005 +- 0.0005, and has major implications for experimental cancer research

The Temporal Order of Genetic and Pathway Alterations in Tumorigenesis

Cancer evolves through the accumulation of mutations, but the order in which mutations occur is poorly understood. Inference of a temporal ordering on the level of genes is challenging because clinically and histologically identical tumors often have few mutated genes in common. This heterogeneity may at least in part be due to mutations in different genes having similar phenotypic effects by acting in the same functional pathway. We estimate the constraints on the order in which alterations accumulate during cancer progression from cross-sectional mutation data using a probabilistic graphical model termed Hidden Conjunctive Bayesian Network (H-CBN). The possible orders are analyzed on the level of genes and, after mapping genes to functional pathways, also on the pathway level. We find stronger evidence for pathway order constraints than for gene order constraints, indicating that temporal ordering results from selective pressure acting at the pathway level. The accumulation of changes in core pathways differs among cancer types, yet a common feature is that progression appears to begin with mutations in genes that regulate apoptosis pathways and to conclude with mutations in genes involved in invasion pathways. H-CBN models provide a quantitative and intuitive model of tumorigenesis showing that the genetic events can be linked to the phenotypic progression on the level of pathways

Evidence-Based Detection of Pancreatic Canc

This study is an effort to develop a tool for early detection of pancreatic cancer using evidential reasoning. An evidential reasoning model predicts the likelihood of an individual developing pancreatic cancer by processing the outputs of a Support Vector Classifier, and other input factors such as smoking history, drinking history, sequencing reads, biopsy location, family and personal health history. Certain features of the genomic data along with the mutated gene sequence of pancreatic cancer patients was obtained from the National Cancer Institute (NIH) Genomic Data Commons (GDC). This data was used to train the SVC. A prediction accuracy of ~85% with a ROC AUC of 83.4% was achieved. Synthetic data was assembled in different combinations to evaluate the working of evidential reasoning model. Using this, variations in the belief interval of developing pancreatic cancer are observed. When the model is provided with an input of high smoking history and family history of cancer, an increase in the evidential reasoning interval in belief of pancreatic cancer and support in the machine learning model prediction is observed. Likewise, decrease in the quantity of genetic material and an irregularity in the cellular structure near the pancreas increases support in the machine learning classifier’s prediction of having pancreatic cancer. This evidence-based approach is an attempt to diagnose the pancreatic cancer at a premalignant stage. Future work includes using the real sequencing reads as well as accurate habits and real medical and family history of individuals to increase the efficiency of the evidential reasoning model. Next steps also involve trying out different machine learning models to observe their performance on the dataset considered in this study

A mathematical model quantifies proliferation and motility effects of TGF--β\beta on cancer cells

Transforming growth factor (TGF) $\beta$ is known to have properties of both a tumor suppressor and a tumor promoter. While it inhibits cell proliferation, it also increases cell motility and decreases cell--cell adhesion. Coupling mathematical modeling and experiments, we investigate the growth and motility of oncogene--expressing human mammary epithelial cells under exposure to TGF--$\beta$. We use a version of the well--known Fisher--Kolmogorov equation, and prescribe a procedure for its parametrization. We quantify the simultaneous effects of TGF--$\beta$ to increase the tendency of individual cells and cell clusters to move randomly and to decrease overall population growth. We demonstrate that in experiments with TGF--$\beta$ treated cells \textit{in vitro}, TGF--$\beta$ increases cell motility by a factor of 2 and decreases cell proliferation by a factor of 1/2 in comparison with untreated cells.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures; to appear in Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicin

Cancer progression models and fitness landscapes: A many-to-many relationship

Motivation The identification of constraints, due to gene interactions, in the order of accumulation of mutations during cancer progression can allow us to single out therapeutic targets. Cancer progression models (CPMs) use genotype frequency data from cross-sectional samples to identify these constraints, and return Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) of restrictions where arrows indicate dependencies or constraints. On the other hand, fitness landscapes, which map genotypes to fitness, contain all possible paths of tumor progression. Thus, we expect a correspondence between DAGs from CPMs and the fitness landscapes where evolution happened. But many fitness landscapes - e.g. those with reciprocal sign epistasis - cannot be represented by CPMs. Results Using simulated data under 500 fitness landscapes, I show that CPMs' performance (prediction of genotypes that can exist) degrades with reciprocal sign epistasis. There is large variability in the DAGs inferred from each landscape, which is also affected by mutation rate, detection regime and fitness landscape features, in ways that depend on CPM method. Using three cancer datasets, I show that these problems strongly affect the analysis of empirical data: fitness landscapes that are widely different from each other produce data similar to the empirically observed ones and lead to DAGs that infer very different restrictions. Because reciprocal sign epistasis can be common in cancer, these results question the use and interpretation of CPMs.This study was supported by BFU2015-67302-R (MINECO/FEDER, EU

Cancer initiation with epistatic interactions between driver and passenger mutations

We investigate the dynamics of cancer initiation in a mathematical model with one driver mutation and several passenger mutations. Our analysis is based on a multi type branching process: We model individual cells which can either divide or undergo apoptosis. In case of a cell division, the two daughter cells can mutate, which potentially confers a change in fitness to the cell. In contrast to previous models, the change in fitness induced by the driver mutation depends on the genetic context of the cell, in our case on the number of passenger mutations. The passenger mutations themselves have no or only a very small impact on the cell's fitness. While our model is not designed as a specific model for a particular cancer, the underlying idea is motivated by clinical and experimental observations in Burkitt Lymphoma. In this tumor, the hallmark mutation leads to deregulation of the MYC oncogene which increases the rate of apoptosis, but also the proliferation rate of cells. This increase in the rate of apoptosis hence needs to be overcome by mutations affecting apoptotic pathways, naturally leading to an epistatic fitness landscape. This model shows a very interesting dynamical behavior which is distinct from the dynamics of cancer initiation in the absence of epistasis. Since the driver mutation is deleterious to a cell with only a few passenger mutations, there is a period of stasis in the number of cells until a clone of cells with enough passenger mutations emerges. Only when the driver mutation occurs in one of those cells, the cell population starts to grow rapidly

Mathematical modeling of tumor therapy with oncolytic viruses: Effects of parametric heterogeneity on cell dynamics

One of the mechanisms that ensure cancer robustness is tumor heterogeneity, and its effects on tumor cells dynamics have to be taken into account when studying cancer progression. There is no unifying theoretical framework in mathematical modeling of carcinogenesis that would account for parametric heterogeneity. Here we formulate a modeling approach that naturally takes stock of inherent cancer cell heterogeneity and illustrate it with a model of interaction between a tumor and an oncolytic virus. We show that several phenomena that are absent in homogeneous models, such as cancer recurrence, tumor dormancy, an others, appear in heterogeneous setting. We also demonstrate that, within the applied modeling framework, to overcome the adverse effect of tumor cell heterogeneity on cancer progression, a heterogeneous population of an oncolytic virus must be used. Heterogeneity in parameters of the model, such as tumor cell susceptibility to virus infection and virus replication rate, can lead to complex, time-dependent behaviors of the tumor. Thus, irregular, quasi-chaotic behavior of the tumor-virus system can be caused not only by random perturbations but also by the heterogeneity of the tumor and the virus. The modeling approach described here reveals the importance of tumor cell and virus heterogeneity for the outcome of cancer therapy. It should be straightforward to apply these techniques to mathematical modeling of other types of anticancer therapy.Comment: 45 pages, 6 figures; submitted to Biology Direc