Generalized Multivariate Extreme Value Models for Explicit Route Choice Sets

This paper analyses a class of route choice models with closed-form probability expressions, namely, Generalized Multivariate Extreme Value (GMEV) models. A large group of these models emerge from different utility formulas that combine systematic utility and random error terms. Twelve models are captured in a single discrete choice framework. The additive utility formula leads to the known logit family, being multinomial, path-size, paired combinatorial and link-nested. For the multiplicative formulation only the multinomial and path-size weibit models have been identified; this study also identifies the paired combinatorial and link-nested variations, and generalizes the path-size variant. Furthermore, a new traveller's decision rule based on the multiplicative utility formula with a reference route is presented. Here the traveller chooses exclusively based on the differences between routes. This leads to four new GMEV models. We assess the models qualitatively based on a generic structure of route utility with random foreseen travel times, for which we empirically identify that the variance of utility should be different from thus far assumed for multinomial probit and logit-kernel models. The expected travellers' behaviour and model-behaviour under simple network changes are analysed. Furthermore, all models are estimated and validated on an illustrative network example with long distance and short distance origin-destination pairs. The new multiplicative models based on differences outperform the additive models in both tests

Modelling rail track deterioration and maintenance: current practices and future needs

As commercialisation and privatisation of railway systems reach the political agendas in a number of countries, including Australia, the separation of infrastructure from operating business dictates that track costs need to be shared on an equitable basis. There is also a world-wide trend towards increased pressures on rail track infrastructure through increases in axle loads and train speeds. Such productivity and customer service driven pressures inevitably lead to reductions in the life of track components and increases in track maintenance costs. This paper provides a state-of-the-art review of track degradation modeling, as well as an overview of track maintenance decision support systems currently in use in North America and Europe. The essential elements of a maintenance optimisation model currently under development are also highlighted

Motivational context for response inhibition influences proactive involvement of attention

Motoric inhibition is ingrained in human cognition and implicated in pervasive neurological diseases and disorders. The present electroencephalographic (EEG) study investigated proactive motivational adjustments in attention during response inhibition. We compared go-trial data from a stop-signal task, in which infrequently presented stop-signals required response cancellation without extrinsic incentives ("standard-stop"), to data where a monetary reward was posted on some stop-signals ("rewarded-stop"). A novel EEG analysis was used to directly model the covariation between response time and the attention-related N1 component. A positive relationship between response time and N1 amplitudes was found in the standard-stop context, but not in the rewarded-stop context. Simultaneously, average go-trial N1 amplitudes were larger in the rewarded-stop context. This suggests that down-regulation of go-signal-directed attention is dynamically adjusted in the standard-stop trials, but is overridden by a more generalized increase in attention in reward-motivated trials. Further, a diffusion process model indicated that behavior between contexts was the result of partially opposing evidence accumulation processes. Together these analyses suggest that response inhibition relies on dynamic and flexible proactive adjustments of low-level processes and that contextual changes can alter their interplay. This could prove to have ramifications for clinical disorders involving deficient response inhibition and impulsivity

Performance modelling and the representation of large scale distributed system functions

This thesis presents a resource based approach to model generation for performance characterization and correctness checking of large scale telecommunications networks. A notion called the timed automaton is proposed and then developed to encapsulate behaviours of networking equipment, system control policies and non-deterministic user behaviours. The states of pooled network resources and the behaviours of resource consumers are represented as continually varying geometric patterns; these patterns form part of the data operated upon by the timed automata. Such a representation technique allows for great flexibility regarding the level of abstraction that can be chosen in the modelling of telecommunications systems. None the less, the notion of system functions is proposed to serve as a constraining framework for specifying bounded behaviours and features of telecommunications systems. Operational concepts are developed for the timed automata; these concepts are based on limit preserving relations. Relations over system states represent the evolution of system properties observable at various locations within the network under study. The declarative nature of such permutative state relations provides a direct framework for generating highly expressive models suitable for carrying out optimization experiments. The usefulness of the developed procedure is demonstrated by tackling a large scale case study, in particular the problem of congestion avoidance in networks; it is shown that there can be global coupling among local behaviours within a telecommunications network. The uncovering of such a phenomenon through a function oriented simulation is a contribution to the area of network modelling. The direct and faithful way of deriving performance metrics for loss in networks from resource utilization patterns is also a new contribution to the work area

Some resonances between Eastern thought and Integral Biomathics in the framework of the WLIMES formalism for modelling living systems

Forty-two years ago, Capra published “The Tao of Physics” (Capra, 1975). In this book (page 17) he writes: “The exploration of the atomic and subatomic world in the twentieth century has …. necessitated a radical revision of many of our basic concepts” and that, unlike ‘classical’ physics, the sub-atomic and quantum “modern physics” shows resonances with Eastern thoughts and “leads us to a view of the world which is very similar to the views held by mystics of all ages and traditions.“ This article stresses an analogous situation in biology with respect to a new theoretical approach for studying living systems, Integral Biomathics (IB), which also exhibits some resonances with Eastern thought. Stepping on earlier research in cybernetics1 and theoretical biology,2 IB has been developed since 2011 by over 100 scientists from a number of disciplines who have been exploring a substantial set of theoretical frameworks. From that effort, the need for a robust core model utilizing advanced mathematics and computation adequate for understanding the behavior of organisms as dynamic wholes was identified. At this end, the authors of this article have proposed WLIMES (Ehresmann and Simeonov, 2012), a formal theory for modeling living systems integrating both the Memory Evolutive Systems (Ehresmann and Vanbremeersch, 2007) and the Wandering Logic Intelligence (Simeonov, 2002b). Its principles will be recalled here with respect to their resonances to Eastern thought