Modelling and trading the Greek stock market with gene expression and genetic programing algorithms

This paper presents an application of the gene expression programming (GEP) and integrated genetic programming (GP) algorithms to the modelling of ASE 20 Greek index. GEP and GP are robust evolutionary algorithms that evolve computer programs in the form of mathematical expressions, decision trees or logical expressions. The results indicate that GEP and GP produce significant trading performance when applied to ASE 20 and outperform the well-known existing methods. The trading performance of the derived models is further enhanced by applying a leverage filter

How Models Fail. A Critical Look at the History of Computer Simulations of the Evolution of Cooperation

Simulation models of the Reiterated Prisoner's Dilemma have been popular for studying the evolution of cooperation since more than 30 years now. However, there have been practically no successful instances of empirical application of any of these models. At the same time this lack of empirical testing and confirmation has almost entirely been ignored by the modelers community. In this paper, I examine some of the typical narratives and standard arguments with which these models are justified by their authors despite the lack of empirical validation. I find that most of the narratives and arguments are not at all compelling. None the less they seem to serve an important function in keeping the simulation business running despite its empirical shortcomings

On the competition of asymetric agents

Rank-order tournaments are usually implemented in organizations to provide incentives for eliciting employees’ effort and/or to identify the agent with the higher ability, e.g. in promotion tournaments. We close a gap in the literature by experimentally analyzing a ceteris paribus variation of the prize spread – being the major design feature of tournaments – in a symmetric and an asymmetric setting. We find that effort significantly increases with the prize spread as predicted by standard theory. However, only if the prize spread is sufficiently large weak players competing against strong players strain themselves all the more and sorting of agents is feasible

The Novel Approach of Adaptive Twin Probability for Genetic Algorithm

The performance of GA is measured and analyzed in terms of its performance parameters against variations in its genetic operators and associated parameters. Since last four decades huge numbers of researchers have been working on the performance of GA and its enhancement. This earlier research work on analyzing the performance of GA enforces the need to further investigate the exploration and exploitation characteristics and observe its impact on the behavior and overall performance of GA. This paper introduces the novel approach of adaptive twin probability associated with the advanced twin operator that enhances the performance of GA. The design of the advanced twin operator is extrapolated from the twin offspring birth due to single ovulation in natural genetic systems as mentioned in the earlier works. The twin probability of this operator is adaptively varied based on the fitness of best individual thereby relieving the GA user from statically defining its value. This novel approach of adaptive twin probability is experimented and tested on the standard benchmark optimization test functions. The experimental results show the increased accuracy in terms of the best individual and reduced convergence time.Comment: 7 pages, International Journal of Advanced Studies in Computer Science and Engineering (IJASCSE), Volume 2, Special Issue 2, 201

Optimal Seedings in Elimination Tournaments

We study an elimination tournament with heterogenous contestants whose ability is common-knowledge. Each pair-wise match is modeled as an all-pay auction where the winner gets the right to compete at the next round. Equilibrium efforts are in mixed strategies, yielding rather complex play dynamics: the endogenous win probabilities in each match depend on the outcome of other matches through the identity of the expected opponent in the next round. The designer can seed the competitors according to their ranks. For tournaments with four players we find optimal seedings with respect to three different criteria: 1) maximization of total effort in the tournament; 2) maximization of the probability of a final among the two top ranked teams; 3) maximization of the win probability for the top player. In addition, we find the seedings ensuring that higher ranked players have a higher probability to win the tournament. Finally, we compare the theoretical predictions with data from NCAA basketball tournaments

Decision Making in the Medical Domain: Comparing the Effectiveness of GP-Generated Fuzzy Intelligent Structures

ABSTRACT: In this work, we examine the effectiveness of two intelligent models in medical domains. Namely, we apply grammar-guided genetic programming to produce fuzzy intelligent structures, such as fuzzy rule-based systems and fuzzy Petri nets, in medical data mining tasks. First, we use two context-free grammars to describe fuzzy rule-based systems and fuzzy Petri nets with genetic programming. Then, we apply cellular encoding in order to express the fuzzy Petri nets with arbitrary size and topology. The models are examined thoroughly in four real-world medical data sets. Results are presented in detail and the competitive advantages and drawbacks of the selected methodologies are discussed, in respect to the nature of each application domain. Conclusions are drawn on the effectiveness and efficiency of the presented approach

Proceedings of Mathsport international 2017 conference

Proceedings of MathSport International 2017 Conference, held in the Botanical Garden of the University of Padua, June 26-28, 2017. MathSport International organizes biennial conferences dedicated to all topics where mathematics and sport meet. Topics include: performance measures, optimization of sports performance, statistics and probability models, mathematical and physical models in sports, competitive strategies, statistics and probability match outcome models, optimal tournament design and scheduling, decision support systems, analysis of rules and adjudication, econometrics in sport, analysis of sporting technologies, financial valuation in sport, e-sports (gaming), betting and sports