A polynomial time algorithm for calculating the probability of a ranked gene tree given a species tree

In this paper, we provide a polynomial time algorithm to calculate the probability of a {\it ranked} gene tree topology for a given species tree, where a ranked tree topology is a tree topology with the internal vertices being ordered. The probability of a gene tree topology can thus be calculated in polynomial time if the number of orderings of the internal vertices is a polynomial number. However, the complexity of calculating the probability of a gene tree topology with an exponential number of rankings for a given species tree remains unknown

Long wavelength bifurcation of gravity waves on deep water

Conditions are found for the appearance of non-uniform progressive waves of permanent form from a long-wave modulation of a finite-amplitude Stokes wave on deep water. The waveheight at which the modulated waves can occur is a very slowly decreasing function of the modulation wavelength for values up to 150 times the original wavelength. Some qualitative remarks are made about the problem of determining the stability of the new waves

Convolutional neural networks: a magic bullet for gravitational-wave detection?

In the last few years, machine learning techniques, in particular convolutional neural networks, have been investigated as a method to replace or complement traditional matched filtering techniques that are used to detect the gravitational-wave signature of merging black holes. However, to date, these methods have not yet been successfully applied to the analysis of long stretches of data recorded by the Advanced LIGO and Virgo gravitational-wave observatories. In this work, we critically examine the use of convolutional neural networks as a tool to search for merging black holes. We identify the strengths and limitations of this approach, highlight some common pitfalls in translating between machine learning and gravitational-wave astronomy, and discuss the interdisciplinary challenges. In particular, we explain in detail why convolutional neural networks alone cannot be used to claim a statistically significant gravitational-wave detection. However, we demonstrate how they can still be used to rapidly flag the times of potential signals in the data for a more detailed follow-up. Our convolutional neural network architecture as well as the proposed performance metrics are better suited for this task than a standard binary classifications scheme. A detailed evaluation of our approach on Advanced LIGO data demonstrates the potential of such systems as trigger generators. Finally, we sound a note of caution by constructing adversarial examples, which showcase interesting "failure modes" of our model, where inputs with no visible resemblance to real gravitational-wave signals are identified as such by the network with high confidence.Comment: First two authors contributed equally; appeared at Phys. Rev.

Inferring Species Trees from Incongruent Multi-Copy Gene Trees Using the Robinson-Foulds Distance

We present a new method for inferring species trees from multi-copy gene trees. Our method is based on a generalization of the Robinson-Foulds (RF) distance to multi-labeled trees (mul-trees), i.e., gene trees in which multiple leaves can have the same label. Unlike most previous phylogenetic methods using gene trees, this method does not assume that gene tree incongruence is caused by a single, specific biological process, such as gene duplication and loss, deep coalescence, or lateral gene transfer. We prove that it is NP-hard to compute the RF distance between two mul-trees, but it is easy to calculate the generalized RF distance between a mul-tree and a singly-labeled tree. Motivated by this observation, we formulate the RF supertree problem for mul-trees (MulRF), which takes a collection of mul-trees and constructs a species tree that minimizes the total RF distance from the input mul-trees. We present a fast heuristic algorithm for the MulRF supertree problem. Simulation experiments demonstrate that the MulRF method produces more accurate species trees than gene tree parsimony methods when incongruence is caused by gene tree error, duplications and losses, and/or lateral gene transfer. Furthermore, the MulRF heuristic runs quickly on data sets containing hundreds of trees with up to a hundred taxa.Comment: 16 pages, 11 figure

Machine-learning nonstationary noise out of gravitational-wave detectors

Signal extraction out of background noise is a common challenge in high-precision physics experiments, where the measurement output is often a continuous data stream. To improve the signal-to-noise ratio of the detection, witness sensors are often used to independently measure background noises and subtract them from the main signal. If the noise coupling is linear and stationary, optimal techniques already exist and are routinely implemented in many experiments. However, when the noise coupling is nonstationary, linear techniques often fail or are suboptimal. Inspired by the properties of the background noise in gravitational wave detectors, this work develops a novel algorithm to efficiently characterize and remove nonstationary noise couplings, provided there exist witnesses of the noise source and of the modulation. In this work, the algorithm is described in its most general formulation, and its efficiency is demonstrated with examples from the data of the Advanced LIGO gravitational-wave observatory, where we could obtain an improvement of the detector gravitational-wave reach without introducing any bias on the source parameter estimation

Image-based deep learning for classification of noise transients in gravitational wave detectors

The detection of gravitational waves has inaugurated the era of gravitational astronomy and opened new avenues for the multimessenger study of cosmic sources. Thanks to their sensitivity, the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo interferometers will probe a much larger volume of space and expand the capability of discovering new gravitational wave emitters. The characterization of these detectors is a primary task in order to recognize the main sources of noise and optimize the sensitivity of interferometers. Glitches are transient noise events that can impact the data quality of the interferometers and their classification is an important task for detector characterization. Deep learning techniques are a promising tool for the recognition and classification of glitches. We present a classification pipeline that exploits convolutional neural networks to classify glitches starting from their time-frequency evolution represented as images. We evaluated the classification accuracy on simulated glitches, showing that the proposed algorithm can automatically classify glitches on very fast timescales and with high accuracy, thus providing a promising tool for online detector characterization.Comment: 25 pages, 8 figures, accepted for publication in Classical and Quantum Gravit

Binary Population Synthesis: Methods, Normalization, and Surprises

In this paper we present a brief overview of population synthesis methods with a discussion of their main advantages and disadvantages. In the second part, we present some recent results from synthesis models of close binary compact objects with emphasis on the predicted rates, their uncertainties, and the model input parameters the rates are most sensitive to. We also report on a new evolutionary path leading to the formation of close double neutron stars (NS), with the unique characteristic that none of the two NS ever had the chance to be recycled by accretion. Their formation rates turn out to be comparable to or maybe even higher than those of recycled NS-NS binaries (like the ones observed), but their detection probability as binary pulsars is much smaller because of their short lifetimes. We discuss the implications of such a population for gravitational-wave detection of NS-NS inspiral events, and possibly for gamma-ray bursts and their host galaxies.Comment: 15 pages, 1 figure, to appear in the proceedings ``The influence of binaries on stellar population studies'', Brussels, August 2000 (Kluwer Academic Publishers), ed. D.Vanbevere

Conflict Resolution Algorithms for Deep Coalescence Phylogenetic Networks

We address the problem of inferring an optimal tree displayed by a network, given a gene tree G and a tree-child network N, under the deep coalescence cost. We propose an O(|G||N|)-time dynamic programming algorithm (DP) to compute a lower bound of the optimal displayed tree cost, where |G| and |N| are the sizes of G and N, respectively. This algorithm has the ability to state whether the cost is exact or is a lower bound. In addition, our algorithm provides a set of reticulation edges that correspond to the obtained cost. If the cost is exact, the set induces an optimal displayed tree that yields the cost. If the cost is a lower bound, the set contains pairs of conflicting edges, that is, edges sharing a reticulation node. Next, we show a conflict resolution algorithm that requires 2^{r+1}-1 invocations of DP in the worst case, where r is a number of reticulations. We propose a similar O(2^k|G||N|)-time algorithm for level-k networks and a branch and bound solution to compute lower and upper bounds of optimal costs. We also show how our algorithms can be extended to a broader class of phylogenetic networks. Despite their exponential complexity in the worst case, our solutions perform significantly well on empirical and simulated datasets, thanks to the strategy of resolving internal dissimilarities between gene trees and networks. In particular, experiments on simulated data indicate that the runtime of our solution is ?(2^{0.543 k}|G||N|) on average. Therefore, our solution is an efficient alternative to enumeration strategies commonly proposed in the literature and enables analyses of complex networks with dozens of reticulations

2017 State-of the Science of Dispersants and Dispersed Oil (DDO) in U.S. Arctic Waters: Physical Transport and Chemical Behavior

Chemical dispersants were employed on an unprecedented scale during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, and could be a response option should a large spill occur in Arctic waters. The use of dispersants in response to that spill raised concerns regarding the need for chemical dispersants, the fate of the oil and dispersants, and their potential impacts on human health and the environment. Concerns remain that would be more evident in the Arctic, where the remoteness and harsh environmental conditions would make a response to any oil spill very difficult. An outcome of a 2013 Arctic oil spill exercise for senior federal agency leadership identified the need for an evaluation of the state-of-the-science of dispersants and dispersed oil (DDO), and a clear delineation of the associated uncertainties that remain, particularly as they apply to Arctic waters. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in partnership with the Coastal Response Research Center (CRRC), and in consultation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) embarked on a project to seek expert review and evaluation of the state-of-the-science and the uncertainties involving DDO. The project focused on five areas and how they might be affected by Arctic conditions: dispersant effectiveness, distribution and fate, transport and chemical behavior, environmental impacts, and public health and safety. This publication (1 of 5) addresses efficacy and effectiveness

Consistency Properties of Species Tree Inference by Minimizing Deep Coalescences

Methods for inferring species trees from sets of gene trees need to account for the possibility of discordance among the gene trees. Assuming that discordance is caused by incomplete lineage sorting, species tree estimates can be obtained by finding those species trees that minimize the number of -deep- coalescence events required for a given collection of gene trees. Efficient algorithms now exist for applying the minimizing-deep-coalescence (MDC) criterion, and simulation experiments have demonstrated its promising performance. However, it has also been noted from simulation results that the MDC criterion is not always guaranteed to infer the correct species tree estimate. In this article, we investigate the consistency of the MDC criterion. Using the multipscies coalescent model, we show that there are indeed anomaly zones for the MDC criterion for asymmetric four-taxon species tree topologies, and for all species tree topologies with five or more taxa.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/90434/1/cmb-2E2010-2E0102.pd