20,091 research outputs found

    Born to trade: a genetically evolved keyword bidder for sponsored search

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    In sponsored search auctions, advertisers choose a set of keywords based on products they wish to market. They bid for advertising slots that will be displayed on the search results page when a user submits a query containing the keywords that the advertiser selected. Deciding how much to bid is a real challenge: if the bid is too low with respect to the bids of other advertisers, the ad might not get displayed in a favorable position; a bid that is too high on the other hand might not be profitable either, since the attracted number of conversions might not be enough to compensate for the high cost per click. In this paper we propose a genetically evolved keyword bidding strategy that decides how much to bid for each query based on historical data such as the position obtained on the previous day. In light of the fact that our approach does not implement any particular expert knowledge on keyword auctions, it did remarkably well in the Trading Agent Competition at IJCAI2009

    Pricing average price advertising options when underlying spot market prices are discontinuous

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    Advertising options have been recently studied as a special type of guaranteed contracts in online advertising, which are an alternative sales mechanism to real-time auctions. An advertising option is a contract which gives its buyer a right but not obligation to enter into transactions to purchase page views or link clicks at one or multiple pre-specified prices in a specific future period. Different from typical guaranteed contracts, the option buyer pays a lower upfront fee but can have greater flexibility and more control of advertising. Many studies on advertising options so far have been restricted to the situations where the option payoff is determined by the underlying spot market price at a specific time point and the price evolution over time is assumed to be continuous. The former leads to a biased calculation of option payoff and the latter is invalid empirically for many online advertising slots. This paper addresses these two limitations by proposing a new advertising option pricing framework. First, the option payoff is calculated based on an average price over a specific future period. Therefore, the option becomes path-dependent. The average price is measured by the power mean, which contains several existing option payoff functions as its special cases. Second, jump-diffusion stochastic models are used to describe the movement of the underlying spot market price, which incorporate several important statistical properties including jumps and spikes, non-normality, and absence of autocorrelations. A general option pricing algorithm is obtained based on Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, an explicit pricing formula is derived for the case when the option payoff is based on the geometric mean. This pricing formula is also a generalized version of several other option pricing models discussed in related studies.Comment: IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering, 201

    Competition and Cooperation Analysis for Data Sponsored Market: A Network Effects Model

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    The data sponsored scheme allows the content provider to cover parts of the cellular data costs for mobile users. Thus the content service becomes appealing to more users and potentially generates more profit gain to the content provider. In this paper, we consider a sponsored data market with a monopoly network service provider, a single content provider, and multiple users. In particular, we model the interactions of three entities as a two-stage Stackelberg game, where the service provider and content provider act as the leaders determining the pricing and sponsoring strategies, respectively, in the first stage, and the users act as the followers deciding on their data demand in the second stage. We investigate the mutual interaction of the service provider and content provider in two cases: (i) competitive case, where the content provider and service provider optimize their strategies separately and competitively, each aiming at maximizing the profit and revenue, respectively; and (ii) cooperative case, where the two providers jointly optimize their strategies, with the purpose of maximizing their aggregate profits. We analyze the sub-game perfect equilibrium in both cases. Via extensive simulations, we demonstrate that the network effects significantly improve the payoff of three entities in this market, i.e., utilities of users, the profit of content provider and the revenue of service provider. In addition, it is revealed that the cooperation between the two providers is the best choice for all three entities.Comment: 7 pages, submitted to one conferenc

    User Satisfaction in Competitive Sponsored Search

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    We present a model of competition between web search algorithms, and study the impact of such competition on user welfare. In our model, search providers compete for customers by strategically selecting which search results to display in response to user queries. Customers, in turn, have private preferences over search results and will tend to use search engines that are more likely to display pages satisfying their demands. Our main question is whether competition between search engines increases the overall welfare of the users (i.e., the likelihood that a user finds a page of interest). When search engines derive utility only from customers to whom they show relevant results, we show that they differentiate their results, and every equilibrium of the resulting game achieves at least half of the welfare that could be obtained by a social planner. This bound also applies whenever the likelihood of selecting a given engine is a convex function of the probability that a user's demand will be satisfied, which includes natural Markovian models of user behavior. On the other hand, when search engines derive utility from all customers (independent of search result relevance) and the customer demand functions are not convex, there are instances in which the (unique) equilibrium involves no differentiation between engines and a high degree of randomness in search results. This can degrade social welfare by a factor of the square root of N relative to the social optimum, where N is the number of webpages. These bad equilibria persist even when search engines can extract only small (but non-zero) expected revenue from dissatisfied users, and much higher revenue from satisfied ones

    Lock-in & Break-out from Technological Trajectories: Modeling and policy implications

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    Arthur [1,2] provided a model to explain the circumstances that lead to technological lock-in into a specific trajectory. We contribute substantially to this area of research by investigating the circumstances under which technological development may break-out of a trajectory. We argue that for this to happen, a third selection mechanism--beyond those of the market and of technology--needs to upset the lock-in. We model the interaction, or mutual shaping among three selection mechanisms, and thus this paper also allows for a better understanding of when a technology will lock-in into a trajectory, when a technology may break-out of a lock-in, and when competing technologies may co-exist in a balance. As a system is conceptualized to gain a (third) degree of freedom, the possibility of bifurcation is introduced into the model. The equations, in which interactions between competition and selection mechanisms can be modeled, allow one to specify conditions for lock-in, competitive balance, and break-out

    Two Narratives of Platform Capitalism

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    Mainstream economists tend to pride themselves on the discipline\u27s resem­blance to science. But growing concerns about the reproducibility of economic research are undermining that source of legitimacy. These concerns have fueled renewed interest in another aspect of economic thought: its narrative nature. When presenting or framing their work, neoliberal economists tend to tell sto­ries about supply and demand, unintended consequences, and transaction costs in order to justify certain policy positions. These stories often make sense, and warn policymakers against simplistic solutionism

    A Non-cooperative Game-Theoretic Framework for Sponsoring Content in the Internet Market

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    Data traffic demand over the Internet is increasing rapidly, and it is changing the pricing model between internet service providers (ISPs), content providers (CPs) and end users. One recent pricing proposal is sponsored data plan, i.e., when CP negotiates with the ISP on behalf of the users to remove the network subscription fees so as to attract more users and increase the number of advertisements. As such, a key challenge is how to provide proper sponsorship in the situation of complex interactions among the telecommunication actors, namely, the advertisers, the content provider, and users. To answer those questions, we explore the potential economic impacts of this new pricing model by modeling the interplay among the advertiser, users, and the CPs in a game theoretic framework. The CP may have either a subscription revenue model (charging end-users) or an advertisement revenue model (charging advertisers). In this work, we design and analyze the interaction among CPs having an advertisement revenue as a non-cooperative game, where each CP determines the proportion of data to sponsor and a level of credibility of content. In turn, the end-users demand for the content of a CP depends not only on their strategies but also upon those proposed by all of its competitors. Through rigorous mathematical analysis, we prove the existence and uniqueness of the Nash equilibrium. Based on the analysis of the game properties, we propose an iterative algorithm, which guarantees to converge to the Nash equilibrium point in a distributed manner. Numerical investigation shows the convergence of a proposed algorithm to the Nash equilibrium point and corroborates the fact that sponsoring content may improve the CPs outcome
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