Portfolio Optimization Using Evolutionary Algorithms

Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Data Science and Advanced AnalyticsPortfolio optimization is a widely studied field in modern finance. It involves finding the optimal balance between two contradictory objectives, the risk and the return. As the number of assets rises, the complexity in portfolios increases considerably, making it a computational challenge. This report explores the application of the Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithm based on Decomposition (MOEA/D) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) in the field of portfolio optimization. MOEA/D and GA have proven to be effective at finding portfolios. However, it remains unclear how they perform when compared to traditional approaches used in finance. To achieve this, a framework for portfolio optimization is proposed, using MOEA/D, and GA separately as optimization algorithms and Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and Mean-Variance Model as methods to evaluate portfolios. The proposed framework is able to produce weighted portfolios successfully. These generated portfolios were evaluated using a simulation with subsequent (unseen) prices of the assets included in the portfolio. The simulation was compared with well known portfolios in the same market and other market benchmarks (Security Market Line and Market Portfolio). The results obtained in this investigation exceeded expectation by creating portfolios that perform better than the market. CAPM and Mean-Variance Model, although they fail to model all the variables that affect the stock market, provide a simple valuation for assets and portfolios. MOEA/D using Differential Evolution operators and the CAPM model produced the best portfolios in this research. Work can still be done to accommodate more variables that can affect markets and portfolios, such as taxes, investment horizon and costs for transactions

Modelling and solution methods for portfolio optimisation

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University, 16/01/2004.In this thesis modelling and solution methods for portfolio optimisation are presented. The investigations reported in this thesis extend the Markowitz mean-variance model to the domain of quadratic mixed integer programming (QMIP) models which are 'NP-hard' discrete optimisation problems. In addition to the modelling extensions a number of challenging aspects of solution algorithms are considered. The relative performances of sparse simplex (SSX) as well as the interior point method (IPM) are studied in detail. In particular, the roles of 'warmstart' and dual simplex are highlighted as applied to the construction of the efficient frontier which requires processing a family of problems; that is, the portfolio planning model stated in a parametric form. The method of solving QMIP models using the branch and bound algorithm is first developed; this is followed up by heuristics which improve the performance of the (discrete) solution algorithm. Some properties of the efficient frontier with discrete constraints are considered and a method of computing the discrete efficient frontier (DEF) efficiently is proposed. The computational investigation considers the efficiency and effectiveness in respect of the scale up properties of the proposed algorithm. The extensions of the real world models and the proposed solution algorithms make contribution as new knowledge

A neurodynamic optimization approach to constrained pseudoconvex optimization.

Guo, Zhishan.Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2011.Includes bibliographical references (p. 71-82).Abstracts in English and Chinese.Abstract --- p.iAcknowledgement i --- p.iiChapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1Chapter 1.1 --- Constrained Pseudoconvex Optimization --- p.1Chapter 1.2 --- Recurrent Neural Networks --- p.4Chapter 1.3 --- Thesis Organization --- p.7Chapter 2 --- Literature Review --- p.8Chapter 2.1 --- Pseudo convex Optimization --- p.8Chapter 2.2 --- Recurrent Neural Networks --- p.10Chapter 3 --- Model Description and Convergence Analysis --- p.17Chapter 3.1 --- Model Descriptions --- p.18Chapter 3.2 --- Global Convergence --- p.20Chapter 4 --- Numerical Examples --- p.27Chapter 4.1 --- Gaussian Optimization --- p.28Chapter 4.2 --- Quadratic Fractional Programming --- p.36Chapter 4.3 --- Nonlinear Convex Programming --- p.39Chapter 5 --- Real-time Data Reconciliation --- p.42Chapter 5.1 --- Introduction --- p.42Chapter 5.2 --- Theoretical Analysis and Performance Measurement --- p.44Chapter 5.3 --- Examples --- p.45Chapter 6 --- Real-time Portfolio Optimization --- p.53Chapter 6.1 --- Introduction --- p.53Chapter 6.2 --- Model Description --- p.54Chapter 6.3 --- Theoretical Analysis --- p.56Chapter 6.4 --- Illustrative Examples --- p.58Chapter 7 --- Conclusions and Future Works --- p.67Chapter 7.1 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.67Chapter 7.2 --- Future Works --- p.68Chapter A --- Publication List --- p.69Bibliography --- p.7

Modelling and solution methods for portfolio optimisation

In this thesis modelling and solution methods for portfolio optimisation are presented. The investigations reported in this thesis extend the Markowitz mean-variance model to the domain of quadratic mixed integer programming (QMIP) models which are 'NP-hard' discrete optimisation problems. In addition to the modelling extensions a number of challenging aspects of solution algorithms are considered. The relative performances of sparse simplex (SSX) as well as the interior point method (IPM) are studied in detail. In particular, the roles of 'warmstart' and dual simplex are highlighted as applied to the construction of the efficient frontier which requires processing a family of problems; that is, the portfolio planning model stated in a parametric form. The method of solving QMIP models using the branch and bound algorithm is first developed; this is followed up by heuristics which improve the performance of the (discrete) solution algorithm. Some properties of the efficient frontier with discrete constraints are considered and a method of computing the discrete efficient frontier (DEF) efficiently is proposed. The computational investigation considers the efficiency and effectiveness in respect of the scale up properties of the proposed algorithm. The extensions of the real world models and the proposed solution algorithms make contribution as new knowledge.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Financial predictions using intelligent systems

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.This thesis presents a collection of practical techniques for analysing various market properties in order to design advanced self-evolving trading systems based on neural networks combined with a genetic algorithm optimisation approach. Nonlinear multivariate statistical models have gained increasing importance in financial time series analysis, as it is very hard to fmd statistically significant market inefficiencies using standard linear modes. Nonlinear models capture more of the underlying dynamics of these high dimensional noisy systems than traditional models, whilst at the same time making fewer restrictive assumptions about them. These adaptive trading systems can extract information about associated time varying processes that may not be readily captured by traditional models. In order to characterise the fmancial time series in terms of its dynamic nature, this research employs various methods such as fractal analysis, chaos theory and dynamical recurrence analysis. These techniques are used for evaluating whether markets are stochastic and deterministic or nonlinear and chaotic, and to discover regularities that are completely hidden in these time series and not detectable using conventional analysis. Particular emphasis is placed on examining the feasibility of prediction in fmancial time series and the analysis of extreme market events. The market's fractal structure and log-periodic oscillations, typical of periods before extreme events occur, are revealed through recurrence plots. Recurrence qualification analysis indicated a strong presence of structure, recurrence and determinism in the fmancial time series studied. Crucial fmancial time series transition periods were also detected. This research performs several tests on a large number of US and European stocks using methodologies inspired by both fundamental analysis and technical trading rules. Results from the tests show that profitable trading models utilising advanced nonlinear trading systems can be created after accounting for realistic transaction costs. The return achieved by applying the trading model to a portfolio of real price series differs significantly from that achieved by applying it to a randomly generated price series. In some cases, these models are compared against simpler alternative approaches to ensure that there is an added value in the use of these more complex models. The superior performance of multivariate nonlinear models is also demonstrated. The long-short trading strategies performed well in both bull and bear markets, as well as in a sideways market, showing a great degree of flexibility and adjustability to changing market conditions. Empirical evidence shows that information is not instantly incorporated into market pnces and supports the claim that the fmancial time series studied, for the periods analysed, are not entirely random. This research clearly shows that equity markets are partially inefficient and do not behave along lines dictated by the efficient market hypothesis

An Evolutionary Approach to Multistage Portfolio Optimization

Portfolio optimization is an important problem in quantitative finance due to its application in asset management and corporate financial decision making. This involves quantitatively selecting the optimal portfolio for an investor given their asset return distribution assumptions, investment objectives and constraints. Analytical portfolio optimization methods suffer from limitations in terms of the problem specification and modelling assumptions that can be used. Therefore, a heuristic approach is taken where Monte Carlo simulations generate the investment scenarios and' a problem specific evolutionary algorithm is used to find the optimal portfolio asset allocations. Asset allocation is known to be the most important determinant of a portfolio's investment performance and also affects its risk/return characteristics. The inclusion of equity options in an equity portfolio should enable an investor to improve their efficient frontier due to options having a nonlinear payoff. Therefore, a research area of significant importance to equity investors, in which little research has been carried out, is the optimal asset allocation in equity options for an equity investor. A purpose of my thesis is to carry out an original analysis of the impact of allowing the purchase of put options and/or sale of call options for an equity investor. An investigation is also carried out into the effect ofchanging the investor's risk measure on the optimal asset allocation. A dynamic investment strategy obtained through multistage portfolio optimization has the potential to result in a superior investment strategy to that obtained from a single period portfolio optimization. Therefore, a novel analysis of the degree of the benefits of a dynamic investment strategy for an equity portfolio is performed. In particular, the ability of a dynamic investment strategy to mimic the effects ofthe inclusion ofequity options in an equity portfolio is investigated. The portfolio optimization problem is solved using evolutionary algorithms, due to their ability incorporate methods from a wide range of heuristic algorithms. Initially, it is shown how the problem specific parts ofmy evolutionary algorithm have been designed to solve my original portfolio optimization problem. Due to developments in evolutionary algorithms and the variety of design structures possible, a purpose of my thesis is to investigate the suitability of alternative algorithm design structures. A comparison is made of the performance of two existing algorithms, firstly the single objective stepping stone island model, where each island represents a different risk aversion parameter, and secondly the multi-objective Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm2. Innovative hybrids of these algorithms which also incorporate features from multi-objective evolutionary algorithms, multiple population models and local search heuristics are then proposed. . A novel way is developed for solving the portfolio optimization by dividing my problem solution into two parts and then applying a multi-objective cooperative coevolution evolutionary algorithm. The first solution part consists of the asset allocation weights within the equity portfolio while the second solution part consists 'ofthe asset allocation weights within the equity options and the asset allocation weights between the different asset classes. An original portfolio optimization multiobjective evolutionary algorithm that uses an island model to represent different risk measures is also proposed.Imperial Users onl

Coherent approximation of distributed expert assessments

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 2011.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 157-168).Expert judgments of probability and expectation play an integral role in many systems. Financial markets, public policy, medical diagnostics and more rely on the ability of informed experts (both human and machine) to make educated assessments of the likelihood of various outcomes. Experts however are not immune to errors in judgment (due to bias, quantization effects, finite information or many other factors). One way to compensate for errors in individual judgments is to elicit estimates from multiple experts and then fuse the estimates together. If the experts act sufficiently independently to form their assessments, it is reasonable to assume that individual errors in judgment can be negated by pooling the experts' opinions. Determining when experts' opinions are in error is not always a simple matter. However, one common way in which experts' opinions may be seen to be in error is through inconsistency with the known underlying structure of the space of events. Not only is structure useful in identifying expert error, it should also be taken into account when designing algorithms to approximate or fuse conflicting expert assessments. This thesis generalizes previously proposed constrained optimization methods for fusing expert assessments of uncertain events and quantities. The major development consists of a set of information geometric tools for reconciling assessments that are inconsistent with the assumed structure of the space of events. This work was sponsored by the U.S. Air Force under Air Force Contract FA8721- 05-C-0002. Opinions, interpretations, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the authors and are not necessarily endorsed by the United States Government.by Peter B. Jones.Ph.D

Financial predictions using intelligent systems : the application of advanced technologies for trading financial markets

This thesis presents a collection of practical techniques for analysing various market properties in order to design advanced self-evolving trading systems based on neural networks combined with a genetic algorithm optimisation approach. Nonlinear multivariate statistical models have gained increasing importance in financial time series analysis, as it is very hard to fmd statistically significant market inefficiencies using standard linear modes. Nonlinear models capture more of the underlying dynamics of these high dimensional noisy systems than traditional models, whilst at the same time making fewer restrictive assumptions about them. These adaptive trading systems can extract information about associated time varying processes that may not be readily captured by traditional models. In order to characterise the fmancial time series in terms of its dynamic nature, this research employs various methods such as fractal analysis, chaos theory and dynamical recurrence analysis. These techniques are used for evaluating whether markets are stochastic and deterministic or nonlinear and chaotic, and to discover regularities that are completely hidden in these time series and not detectable using conventional analysis. Particular emphasis is placed on examining the feasibility of prediction in fmancial time series and the analysis of extreme market events. The market's fractal structure and log-periodic oscillations, typical of periods before extreme events occur, are revealed through recurrence plots. Recurrence qualification analysis indicated a strong presence of structure, recurrence and determinism in the fmancial time series studied. Crucial fmancial time series transition periods were also detected. This research performs several tests on a large number of US and European stocks using methodologies inspired by both fundamental analysis and technical trading rules. Results from the tests show that profitable trading models utilising advanced nonlinear trading systems can be created after accounting for realistic transaction costs. The return achieved by applying the trading model to a portfolio of real price series differs significantly from that achieved by applying it to a randomly generated price series. In some cases, these models are compared against simpler alternative approaches to ensure that there is an added value in the use of these more complex models. The superior performance of multivariate nonlinear models is also demonstrated. The long-short trading strategies performed well in both bull and bear markets, as well as in a sideways market, showing a great degree of flexibility and adjustability to changing market conditions. Empirical evidence shows that information is not instantly incorporated into market pnces and supports the claim that the fmancial time series studied, for the periods analysed, are not entirely random. This research clearly shows that equity markets are partially inefficient and do not behave along lines dictated by the efficient market hypothesis.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo