7,307 research outputs found
Bayesian Cointegrated Vector Autoregression models incorporating Alpha-stable noise for inter-day price movements via Approximate Bayesian Computation
We consider a statistical model for pairs of traded assets, based on a
Cointegrated Vector Auto Regression (CVAR) Model. We extend standard CVAR
models to incorporate estimation of model parameters in the presence of price
series level shifts which are not accurately modeled in the standard Gaussian
error correction model (ECM) framework. This involves developing a novel matrix
variate Bayesian CVAR mixture model comprised of Gaussian errors intra-day and
Alpha-stable errors inter-day in the ECM framework. To achieve this we derive a
novel conjugate posterior model for the Scaled Mixtures of Normals (SMiN CVAR)
representation of Alpha-stable inter-day innovations. These results are
generalized to asymmetric models for the innovation noise at inter-day
boundaries allowing for skewed Alpha-stable models.
Our proposed model and sampling methodology is general, incorporating the
current literature on Gaussian models as a special subclass and also allowing
for price series level shifts either at random estimated time points or known a
priori time points. We focus analysis on regularly observed non-Gaussian level
shifts that can have significant effect on estimation performance in
statistical models failing to account for such level shifts, such as at the
close and open of markets. We compare the estimation accuracy of our model and
estimation approach to standard frequentist and Bayesian procedures for CVAR
models when non-Gaussian price series level shifts are present in the
individual series, such as inter-day boundaries. We fit a bi-variate
Alpha-stable model to the inter-day jumps and model the effect of such jumps on
estimation of matrix-variate CVAR model parameters using the likelihood based
Johansen procedure and a Bayesian estimation. We illustrate our model and the
corresponding estimation procedures we develop on both synthetic and actual
data.Comment: 30 page
Inference via low-dimensional couplings
We investigate the low-dimensional structure of deterministic transformations
between random variables, i.e., transport maps between probability measures. In
the context of statistics and machine learning, these transformations can be
used to couple a tractable "reference" measure (e.g., a standard Gaussian) with
a target measure of interest. Direct simulation from the desired measure can
then be achieved by pushing forward reference samples through the map. Yet
characterizing such a map---e.g., representing and evaluating it---grows
challenging in high dimensions. The central contribution of this paper is to
establish a link between the Markov properties of the target measure and the
existence of low-dimensional couplings, induced by transport maps that are
sparse and/or decomposable. Our analysis not only facilitates the construction
of transformations in high-dimensional settings, but also suggests new
inference methodologies for continuous non-Gaussian graphical models. For
instance, in the context of nonlinear state-space models, we describe new
variational algorithms for filtering, smoothing, and sequential parameter
inference. These algorithms can be understood as the natural
generalization---to the non-Gaussian case---of the square-root
Rauch-Tung-Striebel Gaussian smoother.Comment: 78 pages, 25 figure
Efficient Gaussian Sampling for Solving Large-Scale Inverse Problems using MCMC Methods
The resolution of many large-scale inverse problems using MCMC methods
requires a step of drawing samples from a high dimensional Gaussian
distribution. While direct Gaussian sampling techniques, such as those based on
Cholesky factorization, induce an excessive numerical complexity and memory
requirement, sequential coordinate sampling methods present a low rate of
convergence. Based on the reversible jump Markov chain framework, this paper
proposes an efficient Gaussian sampling algorithm having a reduced computation
cost and memory usage. The main feature of the algorithm is to perform an
approximate resolution of a linear system with a truncation level adjusted
using a self-tuning adaptive scheme allowing to achieve the minimal computation
cost. The connection between this algorithm and some existing strategies is
discussed and its efficiency is illustrated on a linear inverse problem of
image resolution enhancement.Comment: 20 pages, 10 figures, under review for journal publicatio
Interactive analysis of high-dimensional association structures with graphical models
Graphical chain models are a capable tool for analyzing multivariate data. However, their practical use may still be cumbersome in some respect since fitting the model requires the application of an intensive selection strategy based on the calculation of an enormous number of different regressions. In this paper, we present a computer system especially designed for the calculation of graphical chain models which is not only planned to automatically carry out the model search but also to visualize the corresponding graph at each stage of the model fit on request by the user. It additionally allows to modify the graph and the model fit interactively
- …