29,687 research outputs found
Creating Full Individual-level Location Timelines from Sparse Social Media Data
In many domain applications, a continuous timeline of human locations is
critical; for example for understanding possible locations where a disease may
spread, or the flow of traffic. While data sources such as GPS trackers or Call
Data Records are temporally-rich, they are expensive, often not publicly
available or garnered only in select locations, restricting their wide use.
Conversely, geo-located social media data are publicly and freely available,
but present challenges especially for full timeline inference due to their
sparse nature. We propose a stochastic framework, Intermediate Location
Computing (ILC) which uses prior knowledge about human mobility patterns to
predict every missing location from an individual's social media timeline. We
compare ILC with a state-of-the-art RNN baseline as well as methods that are
optimized for next-location prediction only. For three major cities, ILC
predicts the top 1 location for all missing locations in a timeline, at 1 and
2-hour resolution, with up to 77.2% accuracy (up to 6% better accuracy than all
compared methods). Specifically, ILC also outperforms the RNN in settings of
low data; both cases of very small number of users (under 50), as well as
settings with more users, but with sparser timelines. In general, the RNN model
needs a higher number of users to achieve the same performance as ILC. Overall,
this work illustrates the tradeoff between prior knowledge of heuristics and
more data, for an important societal problem of filling in entire timelines
using freely available, but sparse social media data.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures, 2 table
A probabilistic model to resolve diversity-accuracy challenge of recommendation systems
Recommendation systems have wide-spread applications in both academia and
industry. Traditionally, performance of recommendation systems has been
measured by their precision. By introducing novelty and diversity as key
qualities in recommender systems, recently increasing attention has been
focused on this topic. Precision and novelty of recommendation are not in the
same direction, and practical systems should make a trade-off between these two
quantities. Thus, it is an important feature of a recommender system to make it
possible to adjust diversity and accuracy of the recommendations by tuning the
model. In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic structure to resolve the
diversity-accuracy dilemma in recommender systems. We propose a hybrid model
with adjustable level of diversity and precision such that one can perform this
by tuning a single parameter. The proposed recommendation model consists of two
models: one for maximization of the accuracy and the other one for
specification of the recommendation list to tastes of users. Our experiments on
two real datasets show the functionality of the model in resolving
accuracy-diversity dilemma and outperformance of the model over other classic
models. The proposed method could be extensively applied to real commercial
systems due to its low computational complexity and significant performance.Comment: 19 pages, 5 figure
On the Inability of Markov Models to Capture Criticality in Human Mobility
We examine the non-Markovian nature of human mobility by exposing the
inability of Markov models to capture criticality in human mobility. In
particular, the assumed Markovian nature of mobility was used to establish a
theoretical upper bound on the predictability of human mobility (expressed as a
minimum error probability limit), based on temporally correlated entropy. Since
its inception, this bound has been widely used and empirically validated using
Markov chains. We show that recurrent-neural architectures can achieve
significantly higher predictability, surpassing this widely used upper bound.
In order to explain this anomaly, we shed light on several underlying
assumptions in previous research works that has resulted in this bias. By
evaluating the mobility predictability on real-world datasets, we show that
human mobility exhibits scale-invariant long-range correlations, bearing
similarity to a power-law decay. This is in contrast to the initial assumption
that human mobility follows an exponential decay. This assumption of
exponential decay coupled with Lempel-Ziv compression in computing Fano's
inequality has led to an inaccurate estimation of the predictability upper
bound. We show that this approach inflates the entropy, consequently lowering
the upper bound on human mobility predictability. We finally highlight that
this approach tends to overlook long-range correlations in human mobility. This
explains why recurrent-neural architectures that are designed to handle
long-range structural correlations surpass the previously computed upper bound
on mobility predictability
Decision-Theoretic Planning with Person Trajectory Prediction for Social Navigation
Robots navigating in a social way should reason about people intentions
when acting. For instance, in applications like robot guidance or meeting with a
person, the robot has to consider the goals of the people. Intentions are inherently nonobservable,
and thus we propose Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes
(POMDPs) as a decision-making tool for these applications. One of the issues with
POMDPs is that the prediction models are usually handcrafted. In this paper, we use
machine learning techniques to build prediction models from observations. A novel
technique is employed to discover points of interest (goals) in the environment, and a
variant of Growing Hidden Markov Models (GHMMs) is used to learn the transition
probabilities of the POMDP. The approach is applied to an autonomous telepresence
robot
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