Personalized Market Basket Prediction with Temporal Annotated Recurring Sequences

Nowadays, a hot challenge for supermarket chains is to offer personalized services to their customers. Market basket prediction, i.e., supplying the customer a shopping list for the next purchase according to her current needs, is one of these services. Current approaches are not capable of capturing at the same time the different factors influencing the customer's decision process: co-occurrence, sequentuality, periodicity and recurrency of the purchased items. To this aim, we define a pattern Temporal Annotated Recurring Sequence (TARS) able to capture simultaneously and adaptively all these factors. We define the method to extract TARS and develop a predictor for next basket named TBP (TARS Based Predictor) that, on top of TARS, is able to understand the level of the customer's stocks and recommend the set of most necessary items. By adopting the TBP the supermarket chains could crop tailored suggestions for each individual customer which in turn could effectively speed up their shopping sessions. A deep experimentation shows that TARS are able to explain the customer purchase behavior, and that TBP outperforms the state-of-the-art competitors

Personalized Purchase Prediction of Market Baskets with Wasserstein-Based Sequence Matching

Personalization in marketing aims at improving the shopping experience of customers by tailoring services to individuals. In order to achieve this, businesses must be able to make personalized predictions regarding the next purchase. That is, one must forecast the exact list of items that will comprise the next purchase, i.e., the so-called market basket. Despite its relevance to firm operations, this problem has received surprisingly little attention in prior research, largely due to its inherent complexity. In fact, state-of-the-art approaches are limited to intuitive decision rules for pattern extraction. However, the simplicity of the pre-coded rules impedes performance, since decision rules operate in an autoregressive fashion: the rules can only make inferences from past purchases of a single customer without taking into account the knowledge transfer that takes place between customers. In contrast, our research overcomes the limitations of pre-set rules by contributing a novel predictor of market baskets from sequential purchase histories: our predictions are based on similarity matching in order to identify similar purchase habits among the complete shopping histories of all customers. Our contributions are as follows: (1) We propose similarity matching based on subsequential dynamic time warping (SDTW) as a novel predictor of market baskets. Thereby, we can effectively identify cross-customer patterns. (2) We leverage the Wasserstein distance for measuring the similarity among embedded purchase histories. (3) We develop a fast approximation algorithm for computing a lower bound of the Wasserstein distance in our setting. An extensive series of computational experiments demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach. The accuracy of identifying the exact market baskets based on state-of-the-art decision rules from the literature is outperformed by a factor of 4.0.Comment: Accepted for oral presentation at 25th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD 2019

Discovering temporal regularities in retail customers’ shopping behavior

In this paper we investigate the regularities characterizing the temporal purchasing behavior of the customers of a retail market chain. Most of the literature studying purchasing behavior focuses on what customers buy while giving few importance to the temporal dimension. As a consequence, the state of the art does not allow capturing which are the temporal purchasing patterns of each customers. These patterns should describe the customerâ\u80\u99s temporal habits highlighting when she typically makes a purchase in correlation with information about the amount of expenditure, number of purchased items and other similar aggregates. This knowledge could be exploited for different scopes: set temporal discounts for making the purchases of customers more regular with respect the time, set personalized discounts in the day and time window preferred by the customer, provide recommendations for shopping time schedule, etc. To this aim, we introduce a framework for extracting from personal retail data a temporal purchasing profile able to summarize whether and when a customer makes her distinctive purchases. The individual profile describes a set of regular and characterizing shopping behavioral patterns, and the sequences in which these patterns take place. We show how to compare different customers by providing a collective perspective to their individual profiles, and how to group the customers with respect to these comparable profiles. By analyzing real datasets containing millions of shopping sessions we found that there is a limited number of patterns summarizing the temporal purchasing behavior of all the customers, and that they are sequentially followed in a finite number of ways. Moreover, we recognized regular customers characterized by a small number of temporal purchasing behaviors, and changing customers characterized by various types of temporal purchasing behaviors. Finally, we discuss on how the profiles can be exploited both by customers to enable personalized services, and by the retail market chain for providing tailored discounts based on temporal purchasing regularity

On network backbone extraction for modeling online collective behavior

Collective user behavior in social media applications often drives several important online and offline phenomena linked to the spread of opinions and information. Several studies have focused on the analysis of such phenomena using networks to model user interactions, represented by edges. However, only a fraction of edges contribute to the actual investigation. Even worse, the often large number of non-relevant edges may obfuscate the salient interactions, blurring the underlying structures and user communities that capture the collective behavior patterns driving the target phenomenon. To solve this issue, researchers have proposed several network backbone extraction techniques to obtain a reduced and representative version of the network that better explains the phenomenon of interest. Each technique has its specific assumptions and procedure to extract the backbone. However, the literature lacks a clear methodology to highlight such assumptions, discuss how they affect the choice of a method and offer validation strategies in scenarios where no ground truth exists. In this work, we fill this gap by proposing a principled methodology for comparing and selecting the most appropriate backbone extraction method given a phenomenon of interest. We characterize ten state-of-the-art techniques in terms of their assumptions, requirements, and other aspects that one must consider to apply them in practice. We present four steps to apply, evaluate and select the best method(s) to a given target phenomenon. We validate our approach using two case studies with different requirements: online discussions on Instagram and coordinated behavior in WhatsApp groups. We show that each method can produce very different backbones, underlying that the choice of an adequate method is of utmost importance to reveal valuable knowledge about the particular phenomenon under investigation

Interactive Exploration of Temporal Event Sequences

Life can often be described as a series of events. These events contain rich information that, when put together, can reveal history, expose facts, or lead to discoveries. Therefore, many leading organizations are increasingly collecting databases of event sequences: Electronic Medical Records (EMRs), transportation incident logs, student progress reports, web logs, sports logs, etc. Heavy investments were made in data collection and storage, but difficulties still arise when it comes to making use of the collected data. Analyzing millions of event sequences is a non-trivial task that is gaining more attention and requires better support due to its complex nature. Therefore, I aimed to use information visualization techniques to support exploratory data analysis---an approach to analyzing data to formulate hypotheses worth testing---for event sequences. By working with the domain experts who were analyzing event sequences, I identified two important scenarios that guided my dissertation: First, I explored how to provide an overview of multiple event sequences? Lengthy reports often have an executive summary to provide an overview of the report. Unfortunately, there was no executive summary to provide an overview for event sequences. Therefore, I designed LifeFlow, a compact overview visualization that summarizes multiple event sequences, and interaction techniques that supports users' exploration. Second, I examined how to support users in querying for event sequences when they are uncertain about what they are looking for. To support this task, I developed similarity measures (the M&M measure 1-2) and user interfaces (Similan 1-2) for querying event sequences based on similarity, allowing users to search for event sequences that are similar to the query. After that, I ran a controlled experiment comparing exact match and similarity search interfaces, and learned the advantages and disadvantages of both interfaces. These lessons learned inspired me to develop Flexible Temporal Search (FTS) that combines the benefits of both interfaces. FTS gives confident and countable results, and also ranks results by similarity. I continued to work with domain experts as partners, getting them involved in the iterative design, and constantly using their feedback to guide my research directions. As the research progressed, several short-term user studies were conducted to evaluate particular features of the user interfaces. Both quantitative and qualitative results were reported. To address the limitations of short-term evaluations, I included several multi-dimensional in-depth long-term case studies with domain experts in various fields to evaluate deeper benefits, validate generalizability of the ideas, and demonstrate practicability of this research in non-laboratory environments. The experience from these long-term studies was combined into a set of design guidelines for temporal event sequence exploration. My contributions from this research are LifeFlow, a visualization that compactly displays summaries of multiple event sequences, along with interaction techniques for users' explorations; similarity measures (the M&M measure 1-2) and similarity search interfaces (Similan 1-2) for querying event sequences; Flexible Temporal Search (FTS), a hybrid query approach that combines the benefits of exact match and similarity search; and case study evaluations that results in a process model and a set of design guidelines for temporal event sequence exploration. Finally, this research has revealed new directions for exploring event sequences