Evaluating/Improving Representation of Intelligence Capabilities and Processes in Combat Modeling with Demonstration in COMBATXXI

NPS NRP Executive SummaryEvaluating/Improving Representation of Intelligence Capabilities and Processes in Combat Modeling with Demonstration in COMBATXXIMarine Corps Modeling & Simulation Management Office (MCMSMO)This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Forging Wargamers

How do we establish or improve wargaming education, including sponsors, participants, and future designers? The question stems from the uncomfortable truth that the wargaming discipline has no foundational pipeline, no established pathway from novice to master. Consequently, the wargaming community stands at a dangerous precipice at the convergence of a stagnant labor force and a patchwork system of passing institutional war-gaming knowledge. Unsurprisingly, this can lead to ill-informed sponsors, poorly scoped wargames, an unreliable standard of wargaming expertise, and worst of all, risks the decline of wargaming as an educational and analytical tool. This fundamental challenge is a recurring theme throughout this volume and each author offers their own perspective and series of recommendations

Some considerations on coastal processes relevant to sea level rise

The effects of potential sea level rise on the shoreline and shore environment have been briefly examined by considering the interactions between sea level rise and relevant coastal processes. These interactions have been reviewed beginning with a discussion of the need to reanalyze previous estimates of eustatic sea level rise and compaction effects in water level measurement. This is followed by considerations on sea level effects on coastal and estuarine tidal ranges, storm surge and water level response, and interaction with natural and constructed shoreline features. The desirability to reevaluate the well known Bruun Rule for estimating shoreline recession has been noted. The mechanics of ground and surface water intrusion with reference to sea level rise are then reviewed. This is followed by sedimentary processes in the estuaries including wetland response. Finally comments are included on some probable effects of sea level rise on coastal ecosystems. These interactions are complex and lead to shoreline evolution (under a sea level rise) which is highly site-specific. Models which determine shoreline change on the basis of inundation of terrestrial topography without considering relevant coastal processes are likely to lead to erroneous shoreline scenarios, particularly where the shoreline is composed of erodible sedimentary material. With some exceptions, present day knowledge of shoreline response to hydrodynamic forcing is inadequate for long-term quantitative predictions. A series of interrelated basic and applied research issues must be addressed in the coming decades to determine shoreline response to sea level change with an acceptable degree of confidence. (PDF contains 189 pages.

Modeling Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations in the Combined Arms Analysis Tool for the 21st Century (COMBATXXI)

The United States Marine Corps (USMC) is undergoing organizational and operational changes to adapt to new warfighting requirements in today’s world. The USMC Force Design 2030 describes new concepts, such as Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations (EABO), with a focus on reconnaissance/counter-reconnaissance and maritime interdiction. To examine and evaluate new concepts of operation, force structures, weapon systems, tactics, techniques, and procedures, as well as other adaptations for such operations, the USMC requires models and simulations that can represent the full range of variations related to these expected changes. The Combined Arms Analysis Tool for the 21st Century (COMBATXXI) is a combat simulation jointly developed by the USMC and the US Army to support modeling and analysis. Developed over the past 20 years, COMBATXXI possesses many of the fundamental capabilities needed to study these new concepts but currently lacks realistic representation in some key areas, such as maritime surface combatants needed for examining critical aspects of the new role of maritime interdiction. Such representation requires platform identification, targeting, and assessment of damage that can lead to determination of their continued ability to perform operational missions. The purpose of this study is to examine new warfighting concepts related to EABO and to identify relevant modeling approaches using the COMBATXXI simulation. The study describes a modeling approach, initial implementation of that approach in COMBATXXI, and preliminary evaluation of the utility of the model for supporting scenarios and studies relevant to the new USMC concepts of operation. The study concludes with recommendations for follow-on work to further improve or employ the developed capability.Marine Corps Combat Development Command Operations Analysis Directorate Capabilities Development and Integration.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Modeling of a Building Scale Liquid Air Energy Storage and Expansion System with ASPEN HYSYS

Liquid Air Energy Storage (LAES) is a potential solution to mitigate renewable energy intermittency on islanded microgrids. Renewable microgrid generation in excess of the immediate load runs a cryogenic cycle to create and store liquid air. LAES systems can be combined with an expansion turbine to recover the stored energy. Using analytic methods to design a LAES and expansion system is complex and time consuming, suggesting modeling and simulation as a more efficient approach. Aspen HYSYS, an industrial process modeling software package, was used to model a combined Linde- Hampson cryogenic cycle (for liquefaction of air) and an expansion cycle (to convert the energy from liquid air vaporization to mechanical energy). The model was validated against previous analytic work. The validated model will be used to implement a model-based systems engineering (MBSE) approach to design an LAES and expansion system to reduce intermittency on an experimental microgrid at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, CA, USA. Data from this facility will be used to further modify and validate the HYSYS model

Development and application of a three dimensional numerical model for predicting pollutant and sediment transport using an Eulerian-Lagrangian marker particle technique

A computer coded Lagrangian marker particle in Eulerian finite difference cell solution to the three dimensional incompressible mass transport equation, Water Advective Particle in Cell Technique, WAPIC, was developed, verified against analytic solutions, and subsequently applied in the prediction of long term transport of a suspended sediment cloud resulting from an instantaneous dredge spoil release. Numerical results from WAPIC were verified against analytic solutions to the three dimensional incompressible mass transport equation for turbulent diffusion and advection of Gaussian dye releases in unbounded uniform and uniformly sheared uni-directional flow, and for steady-uniform plug channel flow. WAPIC was utilized to simulate an analytic solution for non-equilibrium sediment dropout from an initially vertically uniform particle distribution in one dimensional turbulent channel flow

Efficiently Using Families of Diverse Models to Better Inform Decision Makers in Objective and Repeatable Ways

NPS NRP Executive SummaryThe Marine Corps seeks to integrate analytical processes that develop actionable insights for decision makers across its enterprise. One supporting goal in this endeavor is to develop a methodology for implementing a wargame-analytic continuum by formally linking outcomes of wargames with more traditional constructive closed-form simulations. The primary research objective is to explore methods and tools that provide the greatest utility when integrating wargames with constructive simulations. As part of this, we will develop, assess, and document a translation/transformation process used to convert a human-in-the-loop wargaming activity into the analytic domain, highlighting judgment calls and issues, and how they were resolved. The research will be done in support of one or more current Marine Corps analysis issues. The SEED Center will focus on constructive simulations that augment other analyses by other organizations. Candidate analysis "partners" include OAD, MCWL, and NPS. Wargaming activities may include NPS, MCWL, and others. MCWL live-fire events may also be leveraged or informed. In addition to regular reviews, the research deliverables will include: (1) A final brief and/or technical report and student theses (if applicable); (2) All findings, methods, and data used in the study, as well as guidance on how the Marines can most efficiently acquire and organically use wargames within an analytic continuum; and (3) Appropriate conference or journal papers related to this research.Marine Corps Modeling & Simulation Office (MCMSO)HQMC Combat Development and Integration (CD&I)This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Efficiently Using Families of Diverse Models to Better Inform Decision Makers in Objective and Repeatable Ways

NPS NRP Project PosterThe Marine Corps seeks to integrate analytical processes that develop actionable insights for decision makers across its enterprise. One supporting goal in this endeavor is to develop a methodology for implementing a wargame-analytic continuum by formally linking outcomes of wargames with more traditional constructive closed-form simulations. The primary research objective is to explore methods and tools that provide the greatest utility when integrating wargames with constructive simulations. As part of this, we will develop, assess, and document a translation/transformation process used to convert a human-in-the-loop wargaming activity into the analytic domain, highlighting judgment calls and issues, and how they were resolved. The research will be done in support of one or more current Marine Corps analysis issues. The SEED Center will focus on constructive simulations that augment other analyses by other organizations. Candidate analysis "partners" include OAD, MCWL, and NPS. Wargaming activities may include NPS, MCWL, and others. MCWL live-fire events may also be leveraged or informed. In addition to regular reviews, the research deliverables will include: (1) A final brief and/or technical report and student theses (if applicable); (2) All findings, methods, and data used in the study, as well as guidance on how the Marines can most efficiently acquire and organically use wargames within an analytic continuum; and (3) Appropriate conference or journal papers related to this research.Marine Corps Modeling & Simulation Office (MCMSO)HQMC Combat Development and Integration (CD&I)This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Revamping Wargaming Education for the US Department of Defense

17 USC 105 interim-entered record; under review.The article of record as published may be found at https://cimsec.org/revamping-wargaming-education-for-the-u-s-department-of-defense