Structuring Decisions Under Deep Uncertainty

Innovative research on decision making under ‘deep uncertainty’ is underway in applied fields such as engineering and operational research, largely outside the view of normative theorists grounded in decision theory. Applied methods and tools for decision support under deep uncertainty go beyond standard decision theory in the attention that they give to the structuring of decisions. Decision structuring is an important part of a broader philosophy of managing uncertainty in decision making, and normative decision theorists can both learn from, and contribute to, the growing deep uncertainty decision support literature

The vulnerability of rules in complex work environments: dynamism and uncertainty pose problems for cognition

Many complex work environments rely heavily on cognitive operators using rules. Operators sometimes fail to implement rules, with catastrophic human, social and economic costs. Rule-based error is widely reported, yet the mechanisms of rule vulnerability have received less attention. This paper examines rule vulnerability in the complex setting of airline transport operations. We examined ‘the stable approach criteria rule’, which acts as a system defence during the approach to land. The study experimentally tested whether system state complexity influenced rule failure. The results showed increased uncertainty and dynamism led to increased likelihood of rule failure. There was also an interaction effect, indicating complexity from different sources can combine to further constrain rule-based response. We discuss the results in relation to recent aircraft accidents and suggest that ‘rule-based error’ could be progressed to embrace rule vulnerability, fragility and failure. This better reflects the influence that system behaviour and cognitive variety have on rule-based response. Practitioner Summary: In this study, we examined mechanisms of rule vulnerability in the complex setting of airline transport operations. The results suggest work scenarios featuring high uncertainty and dynamism constrain rule-based response, leading to rules becoming vulnerable, fragile or failing completely. This has significant implications for rule-intensive, safety critical work environments

A canonical theory of dynamic decision-making

Decision-making behavior is studied in many very different fields, from medicine and eco- nomics to psychology and neuroscience, with major contributions from mathematics and statistics, computer science, AI, and other technical disciplines. However the conceptual- ization of what decision-making is and methods for studying it vary greatly and this has resulted in fragmentation of the field. A theory that can accommodate various perspectives may facilitate interdisciplinary working. We present such a theory in which decision-making is articulated as a set of canonical functions that are sufficiently general to accommodate diverse viewpoints, yet sufficiently precise that they can be instantiated in different ways for specific theoretical or practical purposes. The canons cover the whole decision cycle, from the framing of a decision based on the goals, beliefs, and background knowledge of the decision-maker to the formulation of decision options, establishing preferences over them, and making commitments. Commitments can lead to the initiation of new decisions and any step in the cycle can incorporate reasoning about previous decisions and the rationales for them, and lead to revising or abandoning existing commitments. The theory situates decision-making with respect to other high-level cognitive capabilities like problem solving, planning, and collaborative decision-making. The canonical approach is assessed in three domains: cognitive and neuropsychology, artificial intelligence, and decision engineering

A correlational analysis of the relationships among intolerance of uncertainty, anxiety sensitivity, subjective sleep quality, and insomnia symptoms

In this study, we used structural equation modeling to investigate the interplay among Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU), Anxiety Sensitivity (AS), and sleep problems. Three hundred undergraduate students completed the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale, the Intolerance of Uncertainty Inventory, the Anxiety Sensitivity Index, the Beck Depression Inventory, the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index and the Insomnia Severity Index. 68% and 40% of the students reported poor sleep quality or sub-threshold insomnia problems, respectively. Depression and anxiety levels were above the cut-off for about one-fourth of the participants. Structural equation modeling revealed that IU was strongly associated with AS, in turn influencing both insomnia severity and sleep quality via depression and anxiety. Significant indirect effects revealed that an anxious pathway was more strongly associated with insomnia severity, while a depression pathway was more relevant for worsening the quality of sleep. We discussed the results in the frameworks of cognitive models of insomnia. Viewing AS and IU as antecedents of sleep problems and assigning to AS a pivotal role, our study suggested indications for clinical interventions on a population at risk for sleep disorders

Boon or curse? A contingent view on the relationship between strategic planning and organizational ambidexterity

Numerous scholars have attempted to explain which factors allow for organizational ambidexterity. Strategic planning, as a possible antecedent, has not been considered so far. This is surprising because strategic planning is among the most widely used strategic decision-making tools in management practice and one of the most extensively studied concepts in management research. In addition, prior research has demonstrated the potential of strategic planning to impact innovation-related outcomes—both positively and negatively. Here, we investigate the association between strategic planning and organizational ambidexterity using a survey of 217 senior executives. We highlight the importance of considering how executives use strategic planning. Our results support the hypothesis that strategic planning's positive or negative association with organizational ambidexterity is contingent on other organizational factors. Our findings reveal that strategic planning is only positively associated with organizational ambidexterity when leaders' innovation orientation is extraordinarily high. We further contextualize this interaction effect by considering the environmental uncertainty perceived by the top management. This work contributes to the literature by examining the antecedents of organizational ambidexterity

Bells that still can ring: systems thinking in practice

Complexity science has generated significant insight regarding the interrelatedness of factors and actors constituting our real world and emergent effects from such interrelationships. But the translation of such rich insight towards developing appropriate tools for improving real world situations of change and uncertainty provides a further significant challenge. Systems thinking in practice is a heuristic framework based upon ideas of boundary critique for guiding the use and development of tools from different traditions in managing complex realities. By reference to five systems approaches, each embodying more than 30 years of experiential use, three interrelated features of the framework are drawn out – contexts of systemic change, practitioners as change agents, and tools as systems constructs that can themselves change through adaptation. The ‘bells that still can ring’ refer to tools associated with the Systems tradition which have demonstrable capacity to change and adapt by continual iteration with changing context of use and different practitioners using them. It is in the practice of using such tools whilst being aware of significant ‘cracks’ associated with traps in managing complex realities that enables systems thinking in practice to evolve. Complexity tools as examples of systems thinking can inadvertently invite traps of reductionism within contexts, dogmatism amongst practitioners, and fetishism of our tools as conceptual constructs associated with ultimately undeliverable promises towards achieving holism and pluralism. The heuristic provides a guiding framework on monitoring the development of tools from different traditions for improving complex realities and avoiding such traps

Designing IS service strategy: an information acceleration approach

Information technology-based innovation involves considerable risk that requires insight and foresight. Yet, our understanding of how managers develop the insight to support new breakthrough applications is limited and remains obscured by high levels of technical and market uncertainty. This paper applies a new experimental method based on “discrete choice analysis” and “information acceleration” to directly examine how decisions are made in a way that is behaviourally sound. The method is highly applicable to information systems researchers because it provides relative importance measures on a common scale, greater control over alternate explanations and stronger evidence of causality. The practical implications are that information acceleration reduces the levels of uncertainty and generates a more accurate rationale for IS service strategy decisions

The motives of organizational justice

The article proposes an answer to the question of why people care about justice in the workplace.models of organizational justice; material benefits; relational benefits; the fair process effect; the fair outcome effect; the interactive effect; the fairness preference effect; motives of organizational justice; controlled and cognitively driven justice judgements; automatic and emotionally driven justice judgments.