Supply chain uncertainty:a review and theoretical foundation for future research

Supply-chain uncertainty is an issue with which every practising manager wrestles, deriving from the increasing complexity of global supply networks. Taking a broad view of supply-chain uncertainty (incorporating supply-chain risk), this paper seeks to review the literature in this area and develop a theoretical foundation for future research. The literature review identifies a comprehensive list of 14 sources of uncertainty, including those that have received much research attention, such as the bullwhip effect, and those more recently described, such as parallel interaction. Approaches to managing these sources of uncertainty are classified into: 10 approaches that seek to reduce uncertainty at its source; and, 11 approaches that seek to cope with it, thereby minimising its impact on performance. Manufacturing strategy theory, including the concepts of alignment and contingency, is then used to develop a model of supply-chain uncertainty, which is populated using the literature review to show alignment between uncertainty sources and management strategies. Future research proposed includes more empirical research in order to further investigate: which uncertainties occur in particular industrial contexts; the impact of appropriate sources/management strategy alignment on performance; and the complex interplay between management strategies and multiple sources of uncertainty (positive or negative)

Risk pricing practices in finance, insurance and construction

A review of current risk pricing practices in the financial, insurance and construction sectors is conducted through a comprehensive literature review. The purpose was to inform a study on risk and price in the tendering processes of contractors: specifically, how contractors take account of risk when they are calculating their bids for construction work. The reference to mainstream literature was in view of construction management research as a field of application rather than a fundamental academic discipline. Analytical models are used for risk pricing in the financial sector. Certain mathematical laws and principles of insurance are used to price risk in the insurance sector. construction contractors and practitioners are described to traditionally price allowances for project risk using mechanisms such as intuition and experience. Project risk analysis models have proliferated in recent years. However, they are rarely used because of problems practitioners face when confronted with them. A discussion of practices across the three sectors shows that the construction industry does not approach risk according to the sophisticated mechanisms of the two other sectors. This is not a poor situation in itself. However, knowledge transfer from finance and insurance can help construction practitioners. But also, formal risk models for contractors should be informed by the commercial exigencies and unique characteristics of the construction sector

The price of risk in construction projects: contingency approximation model (CAM)

Little attention has been focussed on a precise definition and evaluation mechanism for project management risk specifically related to contractors. When bidding, contractors traditionally price risks using unsystematic approaches. The high business failure rate our industry records may indicate that the current unsystematic mechanisms contractors use for building up contingencies may be inadequate. The reluctance of some contractors to include a price for risk in their tenders when bidding for work competitively may also not be a useful approach. Here, instead, we first define the meaning of contractor contingency, and then we develop a facile quantitative technique that contractors can use to estimate a price for project risk. This model will help contractors analyse their exposure to project risks; and help them express the risk in monetary terms for management action. When bidding for work, they can decide how to allocate contingencies strategically in a way that balances risk and reward

National drought insurance for Malawi

Malawi has experienced several catastrophic droughts over the past few decades. The impact of these shocks has been far reaching, and the resulting macroeconomic instability has been a major constraint to growth and poverty reduction in Malawi. This paper describes a weather risk management tool that has been developed to help the government manage the financial impact of drought-related national maize production shortfalls. The instrument is an index-based weather derivative contract designed to transfer the financial risk of severe and catastrophic national drought that adversely impacts the government's budget to the international risk markets. Because rainfall and maize yields are highly correlated, changes in rainfall -- its timing, cumulative amount, and distribution -- can act as an accurate proxy for maize losses. An index has been constructed using rainfall data from 23 weather stations throughout Malawi and uses daily rainfall as an input to predict maize yields and therefore production throughout the country. The index picks up the well documented historical drought events in 2005, 1995, 1994, and 1992 and a weather derivative contract based on such an index would have triggered timely cash payouts to the government in those years. This innovative risk management instrument was pioneered in 2008/2009 by the Government of Malawi, with the assistance of the World Bank, and was a first for a sovereign entity in Africa. Several piloting seasons will be necessary to understand the scope and limitations of such contracts, and their role in the government's strategy, contingency planning, and operational drought response framework.Debt Markets,Hazard Risk Management,Banks&Banking Reform,Labor Policies,Insurance&Risk Mitigation

Risk and price in the bidding process of contractors

Formal and analytical risk models prescribe how risk should be incorporated in construction bids. However, the actual process of how contractors and their clients negotiate and agree on price is complex, and not clearly articulated in the literature. Using participant observation, the entire tender process was shadowed in two leading UK construction firms. This was compared to propositions in analytical models and significant differences were found. 670 hours of work observed in both firms revealed three stages of the bidding process. Bidding activities were categorized and their extent estimated as deskwork (32%), calculations (19%), meetings (14%), documents (13%), off-days (11%), conversations (7%), correspondence (3%) and travel (1%). Risk allowances of 1-2% were priced in some bids and three tiers of risk apportionment in bids were identified. However, priced risks may sometimes be excluded from the final bidding price to enhance competitiveness. Thus, although risk apportionment affects a contractor’s pricing strategy, other complex, microeconomic factors also affect price. Instead of pricing in contingencies, risk was priced mostly through contractual rather than price mechanisms, to reflect commercial imperatives. The findings explain why some assumptions underpinning analytical models may not be sustainable in practice and why what actually happens in practice is important for those who seek to model the pricing of construction bids

Management Control Systems and Contextual Variables in the Hospitality Industry

Purpose – The paper examined management control systems (MCS) in Indonesian hospitality sector. This study examines the impact of six contextual factors at one time to determine the importance of each factor on the design of MCS. Design/methodology/approach – The paper is based upon data collected through a survey sent to “star” hotels in Central Java, Indonesia. Using Chenhall (2003) design, a regression equation is run to examine the relationship between MCS and the contextual variables of environment, technology, structure, size, strategy and culture. Findings – The paper finds that higher levels of the contextual variables of technology, structure, and culture are related to more sophisticated MCS while size is related to more traditional MCS. Research limitations/implications –These findings are related to the hospitality industry in Indonesia. Future research could examine different settings (i.e. country, industry, etc) and investigate the effect of each contextual variable on the relationships between MCS and firm performance. Originality/value – The present study extends the scope of MCS system in accounting literature by testing Chenhall (2003) works on the relationship between contextual variables and MCS. It attempts to fill the gap in contingency-based studies that have previously focused on one aspect of contingency by considering six contextual factors. Furthermore, this paper also contributes to a fuller understanding of MCS practices in Indonesia and the hospitality industry and helps management in determining its most effective design. Keywords Hospitality management, Management Control Systems, Indonesia, Contextual Variable

Flexible Pricing and Payment Alternatives on Canadian Wheat Board Pooling For Wheat

Crop Production/Industries, Marketing,

Longer-term agreements for health care services: what will they achieve?

Government policy announced in the White Paper is to require purchasers and providers in the NHS to move from annual contracting cycles to longer-term contracts (agreements). It would appear the original arguments for this change came from the economics literature, suggesting longer-term contracts would help deal with problems of asset specificity, promotion of new entry and transactions cost. The Labour government emphasises longer-term contracting as a means of shifting the focus of purchaser provider relations from price and activity to quality of service and strategic planning. This Discussion Paper reports the results of research into the extent and nature of long-term contracting in the NHS. It is based on examination of contracts from a sample of six health authorities and their GP Fundholders, supplemented by interviews with individuals from these Health Authorities and Trusts who were involved in the contracting process. The paper considers the extent to which the problems identified in the theoretical literature on duration of contract are likely to be observed in the NHS and the extent to which it is likely a movement to longer-term contracting will achieve the benefits expected.NHS contracts