Cross-border congestion management in the electricity market

EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Market coupling and the organization of counter-trading: separating energy and transmission again?

The horizontal integration of the energy market and the organization of transmission services remain two open issues in the restructured European electricity sector. The coupling of the French, Belgian and Dutch electricity markets (the trilateral market) in November 2006 was a real success that the inclusion of Germany to the trilateral market should soon prolong. But the extension of market coupling whether in Central Western Europe or in other European regions encounters several difficulties and the future remains far from clear. The highly meshed grid of continental Europe complicates things and it is now sometimes recognized that the penetration of wind will further exacerbate these difficulties. The nodal system could go a long way towards solving these problems, but its implementation is not yet foreseen in the EU. This paper analyzes versions of market coupling that differ by the organization of counter- trading. While underplayed in current discussions, counter-trading will become a key element of market coupling as its geographic coverage expands and wind penetration develops. We consider a stylized six node example found in the literature and simulate market coupling for different assumptions of zonal decomposition and coordination of TSOs. We show that these assumptions matter: market coupling can be quite vulnerable to the particular situation on hand; counter-trading can work well or completely fail depending on the case and it is not clear beforehand what will prevail. Our analysis relies on standard economic notions such as social welfare, Nash and Generalized Nash equilibrium. But the use of these notions is probably novel. We also simplify matters by assuming away strategic behaviour. The nodal organization is the reference first best scenario: different zonal decompositions and degrees of coordinations are then studied with respect to this first best solution.D52, D58, Q40

Simulation analysis for integrated container terminal activities

Analisi simualtiva delle attività  logistiche di un container terminal con utilizzo del software Arenaope

A case of implementing RFID-based real-time shop-floor material management for household electrical appliance manufacturers

Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technologies provide automatic and accurate object data capturing capability and enable real-time object visibility and traceability. Potential benefits have been widely reported for improving manufacturing shop-floor management. However, reports on how such potentials come true in real-life shop-floor daily operations are very limited. As a result, skeptics overwhelm enthusiasm. This paper contributes to the re-vitalization of RFID efforts in manufacturing industries by presenting a real-life case study of applying RFID for managing material distribution in a complex assembly shop-floor at a large air conditioner manufacturer. The case study discusses how technical, social and organizational issues have been addressed throughout the project within the company. It is hoped that insights and lessons gained be generalized for future efforts across household electrical appliance manufacturers that share similar shop-floor. © 2010 The Author(s).published_or_final_versionSpringer Open Choice, 21 Feb 201

Boosting data-driven evolutionary algorithm with localized data generation

By efficiently building and exploiting surrogates, data-driven evolutionary algorithms (DDEAs) can be very helpful in solving expensive and computationally intensive problems. However, they still often suffer from two difficulties. First, many existing methods for building a single ad hoc surrogate are suitable for some special problems but may not work well on some other problems. Second, the optimization accuracy of DDEAs deteriorates if available data are not enough for building accurate surrogates, which is common in expensive optimization problems. To this end, this article proposes a novel DDEA with two efficient components. First, a boosting strategy (BS) is proposed for self-aware model managements, which can iteratively build and combine surrogates to obtain suitable surrogate models for different problems. Second, a localized data generation (LDG) method is proposed to generate synthetic data to alleviate data shortage and increase data quantity, which is achieved by approximating fitness through data positions. By integrating the BS and the LDG, the BDDEA-LDG algorithm is able to improve model accuracy and data quantity at the same time automatically according to the problems at hand. Besides, a tradeoff is empirically considered to strike a better balance between the effectiveness of surrogates and the time cost for building them. The experimental results show that the proposed BDDEA-LDG algorithm can generally outperform both traditional methods without surrogates and other state-of-the-art DDEA son widely used benchmarks and an arterial traffic signal timing real-world optimization problem. Furthermore, the proposed BDDEA-LDG algorithm can use only about 2% computational budgets of traditional methods for producing competitive results

Short-Term Freeway Traffic Prediction by Payne-Whitham Model Considering Driver’s Anticipation Effect

In this research, we study a macroscopic traffic model, Payne-Whitham (PW) model, with an anticipation source term. The anticipation source describes how the traffic adjusts its speed based on the condition ahead. With the calibration of driver’s anticipation effect in PW model, this study 1) proposes a short-term freeway traffic prediction method, 2) validates the method with real world data from PeMS, 3) assesses the method by MAPE, VAPE and PPE, 4) compares the method in different traffic conditions and prediction periods, 5) provides a guideline in the range of driver’s anticipation parameter. The results indicate the average relative error of predicting speed in 5-min is 3.48% with a variance of 5.33%. The comparisons revealed the anticipation parameter increases with a decreasing in the size of predictable VDSs as the traffic becomes more congested. For a longer prediction period, the reduction in the size of predictable VDSs is higher. We recommend taking a value between 8 to 14 for the anticipation parameter when modelling the traffic with LOS from C to F; from 3 to 9 for traffic between LOS B and C; from 0 to 4 for traffic with LOS A. These recommended ranges could guide practitioners without knowing the shape of traveling wave when using PW model or PW prediction method. The traffic prediction method developed in this study differs from data-driven prediction methods. It is derived from the solutions of PW model; hence, it underlies flow studies and the process includes the concept of traffic dynamics. It reduces the size of predictable data points, because a perturbation method was assumed in solving the PW model. The results show under a congested traffic, there are about 77.6% of data points satisfied for a 5-min PW prediction, 63.6% of data points satisfied for a one-hour PW prediction. This indicates the limitation does not have large impact on the PW predictions in general

Determination Of The Effects Of Reversible Lane Operation On Lane Utilization By Using Microscopic Traffic Variables Case Study: Bosphorus Bridge

Tez (Yüksek Lisans) -- İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, 2014Thesis (M.Sc.) -- İstanbul Technical University, Instıtute of Science and Technology, 2014İstanbul'da ve diğer şehirlerde ekonominin  gelişmesiyle birlikte görülen hızlı nüfus artışı ve taşıtların artışı önemli ulaştırma sorunlarının ortaya çıkmasına neden olmaktadır. Sürekli yaşanan trafik sorunları insanların hayatında maddi ve manevi kayıplara yol açmakta, ve bu da ülke ekonomisinde çeşitli olumsuzluklara neden olmaktadır, bu yüzden bu sorunları olabildiği kadar ortadan kaldırmak için bir takım çalışmalar sonucunda çeşitli düzenlemelerin yapılması gerekmektedir. Çoğu zaman var olan yollarda kapasiteyi arttırmak ve trafik sorununu çözmek için yeni şerit eklenmesi uygulamaları gündeme gelmekte, ancak bu uygulamalar alan yetersizliğinden dolayı çok yüksek maliyetler gerektirmektedir. Bu sebeple, var olan yolların kapasitesini en iyi şekilde kullanmanın ve daha fazla taşıtın geçmesini sağlanması yolları aranmakta, bu yüzden şerit yönetimi uygulamaları yapılmaktadır. Ek şerit uygulaması da şerit yönetimi türlerinden biridir. Ek şerit uygulaması, belli bir zaman aralığında bir veya daha fazla şerit veya bankette trafik akışının ters istikamete çevrilmesidir. Bunun faydası, normal akış yönündeki kullanılmayan kapasitenin ters yönde kullanılması ile bu yöndeki kapasitenin arttırılması ve ilave şerit inşasının engellenmesidir. İstanbul'da Avrupa ve Asya yönlerini birbirlerine bağlayan Boğaz Köprüleri, bu tıkanıklıkları sürekli yaşayan karayollarındandır. Zirve saatlerde iki yöndeki talep dengesizliği ve talebin kapasiteyi aşması bu trafiğin yaşanmasına neden olmaktadır. Ancak bazı ekonomik ve çevresel nedenlerden dolayı şerit ilavesinin mümkün olmadığı görülmektedir. Bu sebeple, var olan kapasiteyi en iyi şekilde kullanmanın yolları aranmaktadır.  İstanbul şehrinde konut yerleşimi daha çok  Asya yönünde, ticari ve sanayi Avrupa yönünde olduğu için, insanlar sabah zirve saatlerinde Asya yakasından Avrupa yakasına, ve akşam zirve saatlerinde Avrupa yakasından Asya yakasına yolculuk yapmaktadırlar. Bu nedenle, talep ağırlığı sabah saatlerinde Asya-Avrupa ve akşam saatlerinde Avrupa-Asya yönünde yaşanmaktadır. Bu talep dengesizliğini ortadan kaldırmak için bahsi geçen şerit yönetimi türlerinden olan ek şerit uygulaması zirve saatlerde karşı yönden ödünç alınan bir şerit ilavesiyle her iki yöndeki talep dengesizliğinin önüne geçilmeye çalışılmaktadır. Boğaziçi Köprüsü bu uygulamanın yapıldığı geçişlerin biridir. Bu çalışmada Boğaziçi Köprüsü (O-1) karayolunda uygulanan ek şerit yönteminin her iki yöndeki trafik akımlarına olan etkileri ve verimliliği mevcut durumda incelenmiştir. Ek şerit uygulamasını incelemek amacıyla mikroscopik trafik verisinin kullanıldığı çalışma yöntemi seçilmiştir, ve bu nedenle araçlar arasındaki geçiş zaman aralıkları ve hızları şerit bazında sabah (09:00-10:00) ve akşam (20:00-21:00) saatlerinde ek şeridin uygulandığı zirve saatlerde ve ek şeridin uygulanmadığı zamanlarda (12:00-13:00), üç gün için  birer saatlik dilimler halinde ve hafta içi günlerde toplanmıştır. Bu veriler karayollarından alınan kayıtlı kamera görüntüleriyle toplanmıştır. Ek şerit uygulamasının şeritlerdeki hacim ve hız değerlerini değiştirip değiştirmediği, istatistiksel olarak t-testi kullanılarak sınanmıştır. Bu testte incelemeler iki grup halinde ek şeridin zirve saatlerde sabah ve akşam ve zirve dışı saatlerde olmak üzere ikili grup halinde yapılmaktadır. Her saatlik dilimler halinde toplanan verilerin sayıları aynı olmadıkları için " Farklı varyanslı iki kuyruklu t-testi" kullanılmaktadır.  Bu tezin birinci bölümünde incelemeye alınan konuyla ilgili genel bir tarihçe ve tanıtım yapılmıştır. Ikinci bölümünde, şerit yönetimiyle ilgili terimler açıklanmıştır, ve şerit yönetimi türlerinden olan yüksek doluluklu taşıt ayrıcalığı (yüksek doluluklu taşıt şeritleri (HOV) ve ağır taşıt şeritleri), katılımların kontrolü (ek şerit, kontrollü çalışma alanları ve ekspres şeritler) ve ücretlendirme (yüksek doluluklu taşıt şeritleri (HOT) ve tıkanıklık ücretlendirilmesi) anlatılmıştır. Bölümün sonunda, Amerika, Asya ve Avrupa'da uygulanan ve başarılı olan şerit yönetimi türlerinden örnek çalışmalar anlatılmıştır.  Üçüncü bölümde, şerit yönetimi türlerinden olan ek şerit terimleri, ve bununla ilgili tasarım, uygulama, kontrol ve yönetim esasları anlatılmıştır. Sonrasında, Amerika, Asya ve Avrupa'da yapılan ek şerit uygulamaları anlatılmıştır. En son, İstanbul'da var olan ve bu çalışmaya yakın olan ek şerit uygulamalarından (Fatih Sultan Mehmet Köprüsü, Çırağan Caddesi, Kennedy Caddesi ve Boğaz içi Köprüsü) söz edilmiştir. Dördüncü bölümde, Boğaziçi Köprüsü'nde ek şerit uygulamasının, bu tezde yapılan incelemeleri anlatılmıştır. Son bölümde ise, yapılan çalışmanın sonuçları ve ileride yapılması gerekenler konusunda öneriler sunulmuştur. İlk olarak bu test iki akım yönü için ayrı ayrı akşam (20:00-21:00) ve sabah (09:00-10:00) zirve  saatleri arasında sol şeridin ek şerit olarak kullanılmadığı ve kullanıldığı durumlar için yapılmıştır. Yapılan teste göre, ek şeridin uygulandığı kesimlerde akımda %25-%34 azalma görülmektedir. Ikinci karşılaştırma, zirve ssatler arasında, sabah (09:00-10:00) ve akşam (20:00-21:00), orta şeritler arasında orta şeridin yanındaki sol şeridin ek şerit olarak kullanılması ve kullanılmamsı durumları için ayrı ayrı yapılmıştır. Bu karşılaştırmada, ek şeridin komşuluğunda olması durumda, orta şeridin akımında, sabah (09:00-10:00) saatlerinde %2 azalma, ve akşam (20:00-21:00) saatlerinde %3 çoğalma görülmüştür. Dolayısıyla, ek şeridin komşuluğunda olup olmamanın zaman cinsinden aralık ve taşıt hızlarında bir farklılık oluşturduğu konusunda bir genellemeye gitmek mümkün olmamıştır. Üçüncü olarak bu test, orta ve sol şeritler için zirve dışı (12:00-13:00) ve zirve saatler, sabah (09:00-10:00) ya da akşam (20:00-21:00) arasında şeritler normal şerit olarak kullanıldığında veya hiç bir ek şeride komşu olmadıklarında yapılmıştır. Yapılan testin sonuçlarına bakılırsa, genelde orta şeritte zirve içi ve zirve dışı saatlerde bir fark görünmediği, ancak sol şeritlerde zirve saatlerinde, akımın %2-%3 azaldığı görümektedir İkinci adımda ise, araçlar arası zaman aralıklarının dağılımları incelenmiştir. Bu çalışmada normal, lognormal, gamma, gumbel ve ekstrem değer II (edII) dağılımlarına bakılmıştır. zaman cinsinden aralıkların bu dağılımlara uyup uymadığını incelemek için ki-kare testi kullanılmıştır. Ki-kare testinin sonuçlarına göre, araçlar arası zaman cinsinden aralıkların genelde hiç bir dağılıma uymadıklarını, ve sadece sabah )09:00-10:00), sol şerit Asya-Avrupa yönündeki verilerin ekstrem değer (edII) ve akşam )20:00-21:00), orta şerit Asya-Avrupa yönünde olan verilerin ekstrem değer (edII) dağılımına uydukları görülmüştür.With dominant advances in economy, dramatic increase in the population of Istanbul and other mega cities has contributed to emerge of profound transportation issues. Constantly experienced traffic difficulties not only has resulted in tremendous pecuniary and spiritual losses for humankinds, but also it has brought about serious insufficiences in country's economy. For this reason, in order to eliminate mentioned problems as much as possible, some studies have to be organised and implemented. In most of the cases, to rise the capacity of existing roads and solving the problem of traffic congestion, application of adding a new lane has come into question; however, these sort of applications, due to area deficiency, may require enormous investments. Because of this reason, the most proper use of existing roads' capacity is being investigated. Thus, lane implementation methods are widely being used. Reversible lane application is one of those lane implementation methods. Reversible lane application is defined as altering the flow of vehicles to the opposite direction in one or more lanes or banquettes at specific time periods.  Gaining the barely used capacity in normal flow of traffic and adding it to the opposite direction to accrue its capacity and avoiding the construction of an extra lane are the primary advantages of this method.  In Istanbul City, the Bosphorus Bridges, which connect the Asian side of Istanbul to the European side, are the motorways continuously suffering from traffic congestions. The imbalance demand in both directions at rush hours of the day, and exceeding of the capacity by high demands, cause to experiencing of mentioned traffic congestions. On the other hand, due to numerous economic and environmental reasons, costruction of additional lanes seem almost impossible. Therefore, methods which can provide the best use of existing capacity are being researched. Due to higher settlement of living apartments and houses in Asia Side and higher settlement of factories and work places in Europe Side, majority of  citizens travel from Asia Side to Europe Side at the peak hours of the morning and the vice versa travelling direction at the peak hours of the evening. Therefore, demand imbalance takes place from Asia to Europe Side in the morning and from Europe to Asia Side in the evening. To eliminate this demand imbalance, by means of the aforementioned reversible lane application, which is a lane implementation method,  at rush hours through borrowing a lane from the opposite direction demand imbalances in both paths can be hindered; Bosphorus Bridge is one of the passing ways in which this method  was applied. In this study, the effects and randoman of reversible lane application being applied to Bosphorus Bridge (O-1) Motorway in both directions were scrutinised carefully. In order to scrutinise reversible lane application, a working method which uses microscopic traffic data was chosen. Thus, on the basis of the lane, time spans and speed differences among transition of vehicles were collected for three weekdays including one hour lap for each following spans: in the morning (09:00-10:00) and in the evening (20:00-21:00) as peak time periods when reversible lane application was carried out, and time periods (12:00-13:00) when reversible lane application was not carried out. These data were gained from videos recorded by motorway monitoring cameras. To notice whether the additional lane application had any impacts on the volume and speed values, data were tested statistically by using t-test.   Analysis are being performed in two groups in t-test. Investigations of additional lane are being carried out in two groups which are peak hours of morning and evening, and the time when there is not any peak in the traffic. Since the data being collected in hourly time spans are not equal in the quantity, "two-tailed t-test with different variance" was used.  In the first chapter of this thesis, a general history and definition of the analyzed topic were mentioned.  In the second chapter, terms related to the lane management were defined. Also, high-occupancy vehicle privileges, (high-occupancy vehicle lanes (HOV) and truck and bus lanes), control of participations (reversible lane, controlled working zones and express lanes and pricing (high-occupancy toll lanes (HOT) and congestion pricing) were illustrated. In the final part of this chapter, some example studies which introduce successfully applied lane managements in America, Asia and Europe were explained. In the third chapter, terms related to reversible lane, being one type of lane management methods, related design, implementation, control and management principals were elaborated. After that, implementation of reversible lane being applied in Europe, America and Asia was illustrated. Finally, studies conducted in Istanbul which were near to ours (Fatih Sultan Mehmet Bridge, Çırağan Avenue, Kennedy Aveue and Bosphorus Bridge) were discussed.  In the forth chapter, reversible lane application, which was implemented in Bosphorus Bridge and analyzed in this study, was explained. In final chapter, results and recommendations were presented. First comparison, test was done for morning (09:00-10:00) and evening (20:00-21:00) rush hours at each direction, when the left lanes are operated as reversible lane and normal lane. According to the test, in segments where reversible lane applications were applied a decrease of 25-34 % in the flow rate was noticed. Second comparison was carried out among rush hours of morning (09:00-10:00) and evening (20:00-21:00), among middle lane, when there is a reversible lane next to it and normal lane ( no reversible lane next to it). In this comparison, in the middle lane, which located in the neighborhood of reversible lane, there was a fall in flow rate by 2% in the rush hours of morning (09:00-10:00), despite a 3% rise in the rush hours of evening (20:00-21:00).  Third, comparison was to the middle and left lanes out of the rush time (12:00-13:00), and at rush hours of morning (09:00-10:00) and evening (20:00-21:00), when they were operating as normal lanes or without being neighbor of any additional lanes. Considering the results, flow rate between middle lanes are almost the same, and there is not any considerable difference. This fact demonstrates that the transition of vehicles belong to the same society and have the same behavior. On the contrary, a fall of 2-3 % in the flow rate during the rush hours in left lanes was also noticed. In second step, headway distributions were investigated. In this study normal, lognormal, gamma, gumbel ve extreme value II (evII) ditirbutions were taken into account and to check if the data fit to mentioned distributions, chi-squared test was used. According to the results of the chi-squared test, except for the data for the left lane of Asia-Europe direction in the morning (09:00-10:00) and middle lane of Asia-Europe direction in the evening (20:00-21:00) which were suitable to evII distirbution, there was no appropriate distirbution for time periods among vehicles.Yüksek LisansM.Sc