10,973 research outputs found
The Challenges in Gravitational Wave Astronomy for Space-Based Detectors
The Gravitational Wave (GW) universe contains a wealth of sources which, with
the proper treatment, will open up the universe as never before. By observing
massive black hole binaries to high redshifts, we should begin to explore the
formation process of seed black holes and track galactic evolution to the
present day. Observations of extreme mass ratio inspirals will allow us to
explore galactic centers in the local universe, as well as providing tests of
General Relativity and constraining the value of Hubble's constant. The
detection of compact binaries in our own galaxy may allow us to model stellar
evolution in the Milky Way. Finally, the detection of cosmic (super)strings and
a stochastic background would help us to constrain cosmological models.
However, all of this depends on our ability to not only resolve sources and
carry out parameter estimation, but also on our ability to define an optimal
data analysis strategy. In this presentation, I will examine the challenges
that lie ahead in GW astronomy for the ESA L3 Cosmic Vision mission, eLISA.Comment: 12 pages. Plenary presentation to appear in the Proceedings of the
Sant Cugat Forum on Astrophysics, Sant Cugat, April 22-25, 201
A Bayesian approach to stochastic cost-effectiveness analysis
The aim of this paper is to discuss the use of Bayesian methods in cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and the common ground between Bayesian and traditional frequentist approaches. A further aim is to explore the use of the net benefit statistic and its advantages over the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) statistic. In particular, the use of cost-effectiveness acceptability curves is examined as a device for presenting the implications of uncertainty in a CEA to decision makers. Although it is argued that the interpretation of such curves as the probability that an intervention is cost-effective given the data requires a Bayesian approach, this should generate no misgivings for the frequentist. Furthermore, cost-effectiveness acceptability curves estimated using the net benefit statistic are exactly equivalent to those estimated from an appropriate analysis of ICERs on the cost-effectiveness plane. The principles examined in this paper are illustrated by application to the cost-effectiveness of blood pressure control in the U.K. Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS 40). Due to a lack of good-quality prior information on the cost and effectiveness of blood pressure control in diabetes, a Bayesian analysis assuming an uninformative prior is argued to be most appropriate. This generates exactly the same cost-effectiveness results as a standard frequentist analysis
The Hunt for Exomoons with Kepler (HEK): III. The First Search for an Exomoon around a Habitable-Zone Planet
Kepler-22b is the first transiting planet to have been detected in the
habitable-zone of its host star. At 2.4 Earth radii, Kepler-22b is too large to
be considered an Earth-analog, but should the planet host a moon large enough
to maintain an atmosphere, then the Kepler-22 system may yet possess a telluric
world. Aside from being within the habitable-zone, the target is attractive due
to the availability of previously measured precise radial velocities and low
intrinsic photometric noise, which has also enabled asteroseismology studies of
the star. For these reasons, Kepler-22b was selected as a target-of-opportunity
by the 'Hunt for Exomoons with Kepler' (HEK) project. In this work, we conduct
a photodynamical search for an exomoon around Kepler-22b leveraging the
transits, radial velocities and asteroseismology plus several new tools
developed by the HEK project to improve exomoon searches. We find no evidence
for an exomoon around the planet and exclude moons of mass >0.5 Earth masses to
95% confidence. By signal injection and blind retrieval, we demonstrate that an
Earth-like moon is easily detected for this planet even when the
time-correlated noise of the data set is taken into account. We provide updated
parameters for the planet Kepler-22b including a revised mass of <53 Earth
masses to 95% confidence and an eccentricity of 0.13(-0.13)(+0.36) by
exploiting Single-body Asterodensity Profiling (SAP). Finally, we show that
Kepler-22b has a >95% probability of being within the empirical habitable-zone
but a <5% probability of being within the conservative habitable-zone.Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures, 7 tables. Accepted in ApJ. Planet-moon transit
animations available at https://www.cfa.harvard.edu/~dkipping/kepler22.htm
Probing Dark Energy with the Kunlun Dark Universe Survey Telescope
Dark energy is an important science driver of many upcoming large-scale
surveys. With small, stable seeing and low thermal infrared background, Dome A,
Antarctica, offers a unique opportunity for shedding light on fundamental
questions about the universe. We show that a deep, high-resolution imaging
survey of 10,000 square degrees in \emph{ugrizyJH} bands can provide
competitive constraints on dark energy equation of state parameters using type
Ia supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillations, and weak lensing techniques. Such
a survey may be partially achieved with a coordinated effort of the Kunlun Dark
Universe Survey Telescope (KDUST) in \emph{yJH} bands over 5000--10,000 deg
and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope in \emph{ugrizy} bands over the same
area. Moreover, the joint survey can take advantage of the high-resolution
imaging at Dome A to further tighten the constraints on dark energy and to
measure dark matter properties with strong lensing as well as galaxy--galaxy
weak lensing.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figure
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