Honeywell Enhancing Airplane State Awareness (EASA) Project: Final Report on Refinement and Evaluation of Candidate Solutions for Airplane System State Awareness

The loss of pilot airplane state awareness (ASA) has been implicated as a factor in several aviation accidents identified by the Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST). These accidents were investigated to identify precursors to the loss of ASA and develop technologies to address the loss of ASA. Based on a gap analysis, two technologies were prototyped and assessed with a formative pilot-in-the-loop evaluation in NASA Langleys full-motion Research Flight Deck. The technologies address: 1) data source anomaly detection in real-time, and 2) intelligent monitoring aids to provide nominal and predictive awareness of situations to be monitored and a mission timeline to visualize events of interest. The evaluation results indicated favorable impressions of both technologies for mitigating the loss of ASA in terms of operational utility, workload, acceptability, complexity, and usability. The team concludes that there is a feasible retrofit solution for improving ASA that would minimize certification risk, integration costs, and training impact

Validation of Expert Systems: Personal Choice Expert -- A Flexible Employee Benefit System

A method for validating expert systems, based on psychological validation literature and Turing\u27s imitation game, is applied to a flexible benefits expert system. Expert system validation entails determining if a difference exists between expert and novice decisions (construct validity), if the system uses the same inputs and processes to make its decisions as experts (content validity), and if the system produces the same results as experts (criterionrelated validity). If these criteria are satisfied, then the system is indistinguishable from experts for its domain and satisfies Turing\u27s imitation game. The methods developed in this paper are applied to a human resource expert system, Personal Choice Expert (PCE), designed to help employees choose a benefits package in a flexible benefits system. Expert and novice recommendations are compared to those generated by PCE. PCE\u27s recommendations do not significantly differ from those given by experts. High inter-expert agreement exists for some benefit recommendations (e.g. Dental Care and Long-Term Disability) but not for others (e.g. Short-Term Disability and Life Insurance). Insights offered by this method are illustrated and examined

Exploiting Qualitative Information for Decision Support in Scenario Analysis

The development of scenario analysis (SA) to assist decision makers and stakeholders has been growing over the last few years through mainly exploiting qualitative information provided by experts. In this study, we present SA based on the use of qualitative data for strategy planning. We discuss the potential of SA as a decision-support tool, and provide a structured approach for the interpretation of SA data, and an empirical validation of expert evaluations that can help to measure the consistency of the analysis. An application to a specific case study is provided, with reference to the European organic farming business

Patient Risk and Data Standards in Healthcare Supply Chain

Patient safety is one of the most important health care challenges. It is a big concern since 1 in every 10 patients around the world is affected by healthcare errors. The focus of this study is given to preventable adverse events that caused by the errors or system flaw that could have been avoided. In this study, simulation models are developed using Arena to evaluate the impact of GS1 data standards on patient risk in healthcare supply chain. The focus was given to the provider hospital supply chain operations where inventory discrepancy and performance deficiencies in recall, return, and outdate management can directly affect patient safety. Simulation models are developed for various systems and scenarios to compare different performance measures and analyze the impact of GS1. The results indicates that as the validation points are closer to the point of use, the number of recalled or outdated products administered to a patient are still reduced significantly so checking at the bedside or PAR is critical. But validation only at these points may cause some problems such as stock outs; therefore, validating in other locations is also needed

Used-habitat calibration plots: a new procedure for validating species distribution, resource selection, and step-selection models

“Species distribution modeling” was recently ranked as one of the top five “research fronts” in ecology and the environmental sciences by ISI's Essential Science Indicators (Renner and Warton 2013), reflecting the importance of predicting how species distributions will respond to anthropogenic change. Unfortunately, species distribution models (SDMs) often perform poorly when applied to novel environments. Compounding on this problem is the shortage of methods for evaluating SDMs (hence, we may be getting our predictions wrong and not even know it). Traditional methods for validating SDMs quantify a model's ability to classify locations as used or unused. Instead, we propose to focus on how well SDMs can predict the characteristics of used locations. This subtle shift in viewpoint leads to a more natural and informative evaluation and validation of models across the entire spectrum of SDMs. Through a series of examples, we show how simple graphical methods can help with three fundamental challenges of habitat modeling: identifying missing covariates, non-linearity, and multicollinearity. Identifying habitat characteristics that are not well-predicted by the model can provide insights into variables affecting the distribution of species, suggest appropriate model modifications, and ultimately improve the reliability and generality of conservation and management recommendations

A Nine Month Report on Progress Towards a Framework for Evaluating Advanced Search Interfaces considering Information Retrieval and Human Computer Interaction

This is a nine month progress report detailing my research into supporting users in their search for information, where the questions, results or even thei