A comparative study of multiple-criteria decision-making methods under stochastic inputs

This paper presents an application and extension of multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods to account for stochastic input variables. More in particular, a comparative study is carried out among well-known and widely-applied methods in MCDM, when applied to the reference problem of the selection of wind turbine support structures for a given deployment location. Along with data from industrial experts, six deterministic MCDM methods are studied, so as to determine the best alternative among the available options, assessed against selected criteria with a view toward assigning confidence levels to each option. Following an overview of the literature around MCDM problems, the best practice implementation of each method is presented aiming to assist stakeholders and decision-makers to support decisions in real-world applications, where many and often conflicting criteria are present within uncertain environments. The outcomes of this research highlight that more sophisticated methods, such as technique for the order of preference by similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS) and Preference Ranking Organization method for enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE), better predict the optimum design alternative

Study Guide Mathematical Modeling for Decision Making II DA 3410

The mission of the U.S. Army Special Operations Command is to organize, train, educate, man, equip, fund, administer, mobilize, deploy and sustain Army special operations forces to successfully conduct worldwide special operations, across the range of military operations, in support of regional combatant commanders, American ambassadors and other agencies as directed

GIS-based multicriteria analysis as decision support in flood risk management

In this report we develop a GIS-based multicriteria flood risk assessment and mapping approach. This approach has the ability a) to consider also flood risks which are not measured in monetary terms, b) to show the spatial distribution of these multiple risks and c) to deal with uncertainties in criteria values and to show their influence on the overall assessment. It can furthermore be used to show the spatial distribution of the effects of risk reduction measures. The approach is tested for a pilot study at the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Therefore, a GISdataset of economic as well as social and environmental risk criteria is built up. Two multicriteria decision rules, a disjunctive approach and an additive weighting approach are used to come to an overall assessment and mapping of flood risk in the area. Both the risk calculation and mapping of single criteria as well as the multicriteria analysis are supported by a software tool (FloodCalc) which was developed for this task. --

Sensitivity Analysis of Composite Indicators through Mixed Model Anova

The paper proposes a new approach for analysing the stability of Composite Indicators. Starting from the consideration that different subjective choices occur in their construction, the paper emphasizes the importance of investigating the possible alternatives in order to have a clear and objective picture of the phenomenon under investigation. Methods dealing with Composite Indicator stability are known in literature as Sensitivity Analysis. In such a framework, the paper presents a new approach based on a combination of explorative and confirmative analysis aiming to investigate the impact of the different subjective choices on the Composite Indicator variability and the related individual differences among the statistical units as well.sensitivity analysis,composite indicators,analysis of variance,principal component analysis

Neural spike train synchronization indices: Definitions, interpretations, and applications

A comparison of previously defined spike train synchronization indices is undertaken within a stochastic point process framework. The second-order cumulant density (covariance density) is shown to be common to all the indices. Simulation studies were used to investigate the sampling variability of a single index based on the second-order cumulant. The simulations used a paired motoneurone model and a paired regular spiking cortical neurone model. The sampling variability of spike trains generated under identical conditions from the paired motoneurone model varied from 50% to 160% of the estimated value. On theoretical grounds, and on the basis of simulated data a rate dependence is present in all synchronization indices. The application of coherence and pooled coherence estimates to the issue of synchronization indices is considered. This alternative frequency domain approach allows an arbitrary number of spike train pairs to be evaluated for statistically significant differences, and combined into a single population measure. The pooled coherence framework allows pooled time domain measures to be derived, application of this to the simulated data is illustrated. Data from the cortical neurone model is generated over a wide range of firing rates (1-250 spikes/s). The pooled coherence framework correctly characterizes the sampling variability as not significant over this wide operating range. The broader applicability of this approach to multielectrode array data is briefly discussed

Multicriteria decision-making method for sustainable site location of post-disaster temporary housing in urban areas

Many people lose their homes around the world every year because of natural disasters, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and hurricanes. In the aftermath of a natural disaster, the displaced people (DP) have to move to temporary housing (TH) and do not have the ability to choose the settlement dimensions, distributions, neighborhood, or other characteristics of their TH. Additionally, post-disaster settlement construction causes neighborhood changes, environmental degradation, and large-scale public expenditures. This paper presents a new model to support decision makers in choosing site locations for TH. The model is capable of determining the optimal site location based on the integration of economic, social, and environmental aspects into the whole life cycle of these houses. The integrated value model for sustainable assessment (MIVES), a multicriteria decision making (MCDM) model, is used to assess the sustainability of the aforementioned aspects, and MIVES includes the value function concept, which permits indicator homogenization by taking into account the satisfaction of the involved stakeholders.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Prediction of classroom reverberation time using neural network

In this paper, an alternative method for predicting the reverberation time (RT) using neural network (NN) for classroom was designed and explored. Classroom models were created using Google SketchUp software. The NN applied training dataset from the classroom models with RT values that were computed from ODEON 12.10 software. The NN was conducted separately for 500Hz, 1000Hz, and 2000Hz as absorption coefficient that is one of the prominent input variable is frequency dependent. Mean squared error (MSE) and regression (R) values were obtained to examine the NN efficiency. Overall, the NN shows a good result with MSE 0.9. The NN also managed to achieve a percentage of accuracy of 92.53% for 500Hz, 93.66% for 1000Hz, and 93.18% for 2000Hz and thus displays a good and efficient performance. Nevertheless, the optimum RT value is range between 0.75 – 0.9 seconds

Citizen participation and awareness raising in coastal protected areas. A case study from Italy

In this chapter, part of the research carried out within the SECOA project (www.projectsecoa.eu) is presented. Attention is devoted to methods and tools used for supporting the participatory process in a case of environmental conflict related to the definition of boundaries of a coastal protected area: the Costa Teatina National Park, in Abruzzo, central Italy. The Costa Teatina National Park was established by the National Law 93/2001. Its territory includes eight southern Abruzzo municipalities and covers a stretch of coastline of approximately 60 km. It is a coastal protected area, which incorporates land but not sea, characterized by the presence of important cultural and natural assets. The Italian Ministry of Environment (1998) defines the area as “winding and varied, with the alternation of sandy and gravel beaches, cliffs, river mouths, areas rich in indigenous vegetation and cultivated lands (mainly olives), dunes and forest trees”. The park boundaries were not defined by the law that set it up, and their determination has been postponed to a later stage of territorial negotiation that has not ended yet (Montanari and Staniscia, 2013). The definition of the park boundaries, indeed, has resulted in an intense debate between citizens and interest groups who believe that environmental protection does not conflict with economic growth and those who believe the opposite. That is why the process is still in act and a solution is far from being reached. In this chapter, the methodology and the tools used to involve the general public in active participation in decision making and to support institutional players in conflict mitigation will be presented. Those tools have also proven to be effective in the dissemination of information and transfer of knowledge. Results obtained through the use of each instrument will not be presented here since this falls outside the purpose of the present essay. The chapter is organized as follows: in the first section the importance of the theme of citizen participation in decision making will be highlighted; the focus will be on participation in the processes of ICZM, relevant to the management of coastal protected areas. In the second section a review of the most commonly used methods in social research is presented; advantages and disadvantages of each of them will be highlighted. In particular, the history and the evolution of the Delphi method and its derivatives are discussed; focus will be on the dissemination value of the logic underlying such iterative methods. In the third section the tools used in the case of the Costa Teatina National Park will be presented; strengths and weaknesses will be highlighted and proposals for their improvement will be advanced. Discussion and conclusions follow