China’s agricultural prospects and challenges: Report on scenario simulations until 2030 with the Chinagro welfare model covering national, regional and county level

The report describes prospects and challenges for Chinese agriculture until 2030 under different scenarios, using the Chinagro welfare model. A scenario is defined as a coherent set of assumptions about exogenous driving forces (farm land, population, non-agricultural growth, world prices etc.), derived from the literature and own assessments. Under these assumptions, simulations with the Chinagro model analyze the price-based interaction between the supply behavior of farmers, the demand behavior of consumers and the determination of trade flows by merchants. The outcomes from the Baseline scenario seem reassuring in that foreign imports remain moderate relative to China’s size, though quite large as fraction of world trade. It would be possible to feed people as well as animals without excessive imports. There is even a potential for significant export flows of vegetables and fruits. Regarding concerns, the trends in per capita agricultural value added are problematic, because they stay in all regions behind per capita value added outside agriculture, albeit that they are rising steadily. This leads to growing disparity in per capita incomes within and across regions. The mounting environmental pressure from fertilizer losses and unused manure surpluses is another cause of concern. The second scenario, the Trade liberalization scenario, appears to hurt farm incomes more than it benefits them and to raise the gap with non-agriculture, also because food becomes cheaper in urban areas. Hence, it highlights the difficult choice between economic efficiency and poverty alleviation that agricultural policy makers often face. The High income growth scenario reinforces the national food self-sufficiency result of the baseline simulation. Even with meat demand higher than under the baseline, levels of imports remain manageable. The High R&D scenario shows that a considerable reduction in dependence on agricultural imports is possible. However, a substantial part of the gains will accrue to consumers rather than to farmers, due to price reductions. Finally, the Enhanced irrigation scenario shows outcomes similar to those of the high R&D scenario. Here also the agricultural trade balance improves and consumer welfare improves, but farmers have to cope with drops in prices, and those who do not benefit from land improvement, only experience losses through falling prices. The present report is written at the onset of the CATSEI-project that will analyze policy packages with more specificity and detail after implementing the following model improvements. First, the impact of China’s imports and exports on world markets will be represented explicitly. Second, the developments outside agriculture in rural areas will be accounted for endogenously, particularly to represent farm revenue from off-farm employment. Third, the trade and transportation margins between farm-gates and markets will be made dependent on the relative flexibility of the actors (farmers, processors, traders) along the chain. Finally, the various techniques to identify more efficient and more sustainable use of scarce water and nutrients and to address health risks will appear more explicitly

Agricultural Structures and Mechanization

In our globalized world, the need to produce quality and safe food has increased exponentially in recent decades to meet the growing demands of the world population. This expectation is being met by acting at multiple levels, but mainly through the introduction of new technologies in the agricultural and agri-food sectors. In this context, agricultural, livestock, agro-industrial buildings, and agrarian infrastructure are being built on the basis of a sophisticated design that integrates environmental, landscape, and occupational safety, new construction materials, new facilities, and mechanization with state-of-the-art automatic systems, using calculation models and computer programs. It is necessary to promote research and dissemination of results in the field of mechanization and agricultural structures, specifically with regard to farm building and rural landscape, land and water use and environment, power and machinery, information systems and precision farming, processing and post-harvest technology and logistics, energy and non-food production technology, systems engineering and management, and fruit and vegetable cultivation systems. This Special Issue focuses on the role that mechanization and agricultural structures play in the production of high-quality food and continuously over time. For this reason, it publishes highly interdisciplinary quality studies from disparate research fields including agriculture, engineering design, calculation and modeling, landscaping, environmentalism, and even ergonomics and occupational risk prevention

China's agricultural prospects and challenges

The report describes prospects and challenges for Chinese agriculture until 2030 under different scenarios, using the Chinagro welfare model. A scenario is defined as a coherent set of assumptions about exogenous driving forces (farm land, population, non-agricultural growth, world prices etc.), derived from the literature and own assessments. Under these assumptions, simulations with the Chinagro model analyze the price-based interaction between the supply behavior of farmers, the demand behavior of consumers and the determination of trade flows by merchants. The outcomes from the "Baseline scenario" seem reassuring in that foreign imports remain moderate relative to Chinas size, though quite large as fraction of world trade. It would be possible to feed people as well as animals without excessive imports. There is even a potential for significant export flows of vegetables and fruits. Regarding concerns, the trends in per capita agricultural value added are problematic, because they stay in all regions behind per capita value added outside agriculture, albeit that they are rising steadily. This leads to growing disparity in per capita incomes within and across regions. The mounting environmental pressure from fertilizer losses and unused manure surpluses is another cause of concern. The second scenario, the Trade liberalization scenario, appears to hurt farm incomes more than it benefits them and to raise the gap with non-agriculture, also because food becomes cheaper in urban areas. Hence, it highlights the difficult choice between economic efficiency and poverty alleviation that agricultural policy makers often face. The "High income growth scenario" reinforces the national food self-sufficiency result of the baseline simulation. Even with meat demand higher than under the baseline, levels of imports remain manageable. The "High R&D scenario" shows that a considerable reduction in dependence on agricultural imports is possible. However, a substantial part of the gains will accrue to consumers rather than to farmers, due to price reductions. Finally, the "Enhanced irrigation scenario" shows outcomes similar to those of the high R&D scenario. Here also the agricultural trade balance improves and consumer welfare improves, but farmers have to cope with drops in prices, and those who do not benefit from land improvement, only experience losses through falling prices. The present report is written at the onset of the CATSEI-project that will analyze policy packages with more specificity and detail after implementing the following model improvements. First, the impact of Chinas imports and exports on world markets will be represented explicitly. Second, the developments outside agriculture in rural areas will be accounted for endogenously, particularly to represent farm revenue from off-farm employment. Third, the trade and transportation margins between farm-gates and markets will be made dependent on the relative flexibility of the actors (farmers, processors, traders) along the chain. Finally, the various techniques to identify more efficient and more sustainable use of scarce water and nutrients and to address health risks will appear more explicitly

Precision Agriculture Technology for Crop Farming

This book provides a review of precision agriculture technology development, followed by a presentation of the state-of-the-art and future requirements of precision agriculture technology. It presents different styles of precision agriculture technologies suitable for large scale mechanized farming; highly automated community-based mechanized production; and fully mechanized farming practices commonly seen in emerging economic regions. The book emphasizes the introduction of core technical features of sensing, data processing and interpretation technologies, crop modeling and production control theory, intelligent machinery and field robots for precision agriculture production

International Workshop on Nutrient Balances for Sustainable Agricultural Production and Natural Resource Management in Southeast Asia, Bangkok, Thailand, 20-22 February 2001: selected papers and presentations

Soil management / Soil properties / Soil fertility / Soil degradation / Crop production / Farmers / Agricultural extension / Farming systems / Sustainability / Rice / Cassava / Vegetables / Maize / Fertilizers / Decision support tools / Economic aspects

Threats to the Soil Resource Base of Food Security in China and Europe. A report from the Sino-EU Panel on Land and Soil

To secure adequate food supply is the major challenge for humanity in the 21st century. Growing world population and its urbanization put pressure on this basic need, which is further threatened by the constant loss of fertile land. The assessment of sustainability of food supply under increasing pressure on land resources has been selected as one of the most important priority topics of the activities of Sino-EU Panel on Land and Soil (SEPLS). The Panel has performed a number of related researches and discussed the results on a scientific seminar in January 2012 in Nanjing, China. This report is an output of this seminar with a summary of the structured discussions on the below issues. 1. Urban and peri-urban development (soil sealing and loss of land functions) Urbanization and the linked spread of infrastructural development mean sealing of soil surfaces. Soil sealing is the most rapidly growing limitation for soil functions (including biomass production function) both in China and Europe. Soil sealing in China has been taking dramatic degree in the last two decades and the process is estimated to continue in the coming period as well. While urban and peri-urban development is looked as a necessity for social development, its negative effect on natural resources are inevitable. 2. Land degradation Despite the widely recognized importance of land degradation in the unsustainability of economic development and implementation of various policies to halt degradation (e.g. green for grain programme in China; cross-compliance measures in the EU), loss of land productivity by degradation is an ongoing process both in China and the EU. Major forms of soil degradation (erosion, desertification, landslides etc.) are similar in both regions. Assessment of the causes and consequences of soil degradation processes in relation to policy actions is highlighted among the priorities of the SEPLS. 3. Intensive agriculture and multi-function management of land resources Intensification and extensification in agriculture can be considered as the main changes in land use in rural areas in both EU and China. While agricultural intensification is one of the greatest threats to the soil and environment and then hampers the sustainable development of agriculture and food security. To meet this challenge, sustainable management of multi-functionality of land resources is undoubtedly an effective strategy, in which the EU has a good expertise. Bilateral exchange of the experience and knowledge benefits the sustainable management of land resources.JRC.H.5-Land Resources Managemen

Precision Agriculture Technology for Crop Farming

This book provides a review of precision agriculture technology development, followed by a presentation of the state-of-the-art and future requirements of precision agriculture technology. It presents different styles of precision agriculture technologies suitable for large scale mechanized farming; highly automated community-based mechanized production; and fully mechanized farming practices commonly seen in emerging economic regions. The book emphasizes the introduction of core technical features of sensing, data processing and interpretation technologies, crop modeling and production control theory, intelligent machinery and field robots for precision agriculture production

Chapter 5: Food Security

The current food system (production, transport, processing, packaging, storage, retail, consumption, loss and waste) feeds the great majority of world population and supports the livelihoods of over 1 billion people. Since 1961, food supply per capita has increased more than 30%, accompanied by greater use of nitrogen fertilisers (increase of about 800%) and water resources for irrigation (increase of more than 100%). However, an estimated 821 million people are currently undernourished, 151 million children under five are stunted, 613 million women and girls aged 15 to 49 suffer from iron deficiency, and 2 billion adults are overweight or obese. The food system is under pressure from non-climate stressors (e.g., population and income growth, demand for animal-sourced products), and from climate change. These climate and non-climate stresses are impacting the four pillars of food security (availability, access, utilisation, and stability)