Cyber-Physical Threat Intelligence for Critical Infrastructures Security

Modern critical infrastructures can be considered as large scale Cyber Physical Systems (CPS). Therefore, when designing, implementing, and operating systems for Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP), the boundaries between physical security and cybersecurity are blurred. Emerging systems for Critical Infrastructures Security and Protection must therefore consider integrated approaches that emphasize the interplay between cybersecurity and physical security techniques. Hence, there is a need for a new type of integrated security intelligence i.e., Cyber-Physical Threat Intelligence (CPTI). This book presents novel solutions for integrated Cyber-Physical Threat Intelligence for infrastructures in various sectors, such as Industrial Sites and Plants, Air Transport, Gas, Healthcare, and Finance. The solutions rely on novel methods and technologies, such as integrated modelling for cyber-physical systems, novel reliance indicators, and data driven approaches including BigData analytics and Artificial Intelligence (AI). Some of the presented approaches are sector agnostic i.e., applicable to different sectors with a fair customization effort. Nevertheless, the book presents also peculiar challenges of specific sectors and how they can be addressed. The presented solutions consider the European policy context for Security, Cyber security, and Critical Infrastructure protection, as laid out by the European Commission (EC) to support its Member States to protect and ensure the resilience of their critical infrastructures. Most of the co-authors and contributors are from European Research and Technology Organizations, as well as from European Critical Infrastructure Operators. Hence, the presented solutions respect the European approach to CIP, as reflected in the pillars of the European policy framework. The latter includes for example the Directive on security of network and information systems (NIS Directive), the Directive on protecting European Critical Infrastructures, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), and the Cybersecurity Act Regulation. The sector specific solutions that are described in the book have been developed and validated in the scope of several European Commission (EC) co-funded projects on Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP), which focus on the listed sectors. Overall, the book illustrates a rich set of systems, technologies, and applications that critical infrastructure operators could consult to shape their future strategies. It also provides a catalogue of CPTI case studies in different sectors, which could be useful for security consultants and practitioners as well

Cyber-Physical Threat Intelligence for Critical Infrastructures Security

Modern critical infrastructures can be considered as large scale Cyber Physical Systems (CPS). Therefore, when designing, implementing, and operating systems for Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP), the boundaries between physical security and cybersecurity are blurred. Emerging systems for Critical Infrastructures Security and Protection must therefore consider integrated approaches that emphasize the interplay between cybersecurity and physical security techniques. Hence, there is a need for a new type of integrated security intelligence i.e., Cyber-Physical Threat Intelligence (CPTI). This book presents novel solutions for integrated Cyber-Physical Threat Intelligence for infrastructures in various sectors, such as Industrial Sites and Plants, Air Transport, Gas, Healthcare, and Finance. The solutions rely on novel methods and technologies, such as integrated modelling for cyber-physical systems, novel reliance indicators, and data driven approaches including BigData analytics and Artificial Intelligence (AI). Some of the presented approaches are sector agnostic i.e., applicable to different sectors with a fair customization effort. Nevertheless, the book presents also peculiar challenges of specific sectors and how they can be addressed. The presented solutions consider the European policy context for Security, Cyber security, and Critical Infrastructure protection, as laid out by the European Commission (EC) to support its Member States to protect and ensure the resilience of their critical infrastructures. Most of the co-authors and contributors are from European Research and Technology Organizations, as well as from European Critical Infrastructure Operators. Hence, the presented solutions respect the European approach to CIP, as reflected in the pillars of the European policy framework. The latter includes for example the Directive on security of network and information systems (NIS Directive), the Directive on protecting European Critical Infrastructures, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), and the Cybersecurity Act Regulation. The sector specific solutions that are described in the book have been developed and validated in the scope of several European Commission (EC) co-funded projects on Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP), which focus on the listed sectors. Overall, the book illustrates a rich set of systems, technologies, and applications that critical infrastructure operators could consult to shape their future strategies. It also provides a catalogue of CPTI case studies in different sectors, which could be useful for security consultants and practitioners as well

Risk analysis of autonomous vehicle and its safety impact on mixed traffic stream

In 2016, more than 35,000 people died in traffic crashes, and human error was the reason for 94% of these deaths. Researchers and automobile companies are testing autonomous vehicles in mixed traffic streams to eliminate human error by removing the human driver behind the steering wheel. However, recent autonomous vehicle crashes while testing indicate the necessity for a more thorough risk analysis. The objectives of this study were (1) to perform a risk analysis of autonomous vehicles and (2) to evaluate the safety impact of these vehicles in a mixed traffic stream. The overall research was divided into two phases: (1) risk analysis and (2) simulation of autonomous vehicles. Risk analysis of autonomous vehicles was conducted using the fault tree method. Based on failure probabilities of system components, two fault tree models were developed and combined to predict overall system reliability. It was found that an autonomous vehicle system could fail 158 times per one-million miles of travel due to either malfunction in vehicular components or disruption from infrastructure components. The second phase of this research was the simulation of an autonomous vehicle, where change in crash frequency after autonomous vehicle deployment in a mixed traffic stream was assessed. It was found that average travel time could be reduced by about 50%, and 74% of conflicts, i.e., traffic crashes, could be avoided by replacing 90% of the human drivers with autonomous vehicles

Vulnerability prediction for secure healthcare supply chain service delivery

Healthcare organisations are constantly facing sophisticated cyberattacks due to the sensitivity and criticality of patient health care information and wide connectivity of medical devices. Such attacks can pose potential disruptions to critical services delivery. There are number of existing works that focus on using Machine Learning(ML) models for pre-dicting vulnerability and exploitation but most of these works focused on parameterized values to predict severity and exploitability. This paper proposes a novel method that uses ontology axioms to define essential concepts related to the overall healthcare ecosystem and to ensure semantic consistency checking among such concepts. The application of on-tology enables the formal specification and description of healthcare ecosystem and the key elements used in vulnerabil-ity assessment as a set of concepts. Such specification also strengthens the relationships that exist between healthcare-based and vulnerability assessment concepts, in addition to semantic definition and reasoning of the concepts. Our work also makes use of Machine Learning techniques to predict possible security vulnerabilities in health care supply chain services. The paper demonstrates the applicability of our work by using vulnerability datasets to predict the exploitation. The results show that the conceptualization of healthcare sector cybersecurity using an ontological approach provides mechanisms to better understand the correlation between the healthcare sector and the security domain, while the ML algorithms increase the accuracy of the vulnerability exploitability prediction. Our result shows that using Linear Regres-sion, Decision Tree and Random Forest provided a reasonable result for predicting vulnerability exploitability

An Integrated Cybersecurity Risk Management (I-CSRM) Framework for Critical Infrastructure Protection

Risk management plays a vital role in tackling cyber threats within the Cyber-Physical System (CPS) for overall system resilience. It enables identifying critical assets, vulnerabilities, and threats and determining suitable proactive control measures to tackle the risks. However, due to the increased complexity of the CPS, cyber-attacks nowadays are more sophisticated and less predictable, which makes risk management task more challenging. This research aims for an effective Cyber Security Risk Management (CSRM) practice using assets criticality, predication of risk types and evaluating the effectiveness of existing controls. We follow a number of techniques for the proposed unified approach including fuzzy set theory for the asset criticality, machine learning classifiers for the risk predication and Comprehensive Assessment Model (CAM) for evaluating the effectiveness of the existing controls. The proposed approach considers relevant CSRM concepts such as threat actor attack pattern, Tactic, Technique and Procedure (TTP), controls and assets and maps these concepts with the VERIS community dataset (VCDB) features for the purpose of risk predication. Also, the tool serves as an additional component of the proposed framework that enables asset criticality, risk and control effectiveness calculation for a continuous risk assessment. Lastly, the thesis employs a case study to validate the proposed i-CSRM framework and i-CSRMT in terms of applicability. Stakeholder feedback is collected and evaluated using critical criteria such as ease of use, relevance, and usability. The analysis results illustrate the validity and acceptability of both the framework and tool for an effective risk management practice within a real-world environment. The experimental results reveal that using the fuzzy set theory in assessing assets' criticality, supports stakeholder for an effective risk management practice. Furthermore, the results have demonstrated the machine learning classifiers’ have shown exemplary performance in predicting different risk types including denial of service, cyber espionage, and Crimeware. An accurate prediction can help organisations model uncertainty with machine learning classifiers, detect frequent cyber-attacks, affected assets, risk types, and employ the necessary corrective actions for its mitigations. Lastly, to evaluate the effectiveness of the existing controls, the CAM approach is used, and the result shows that some controls such as network intrusion, authentication, and anti-virus show high efficacy in controlling or reducing risks. Evaluating control effectiveness helps organisations to know how effective the controls are in reducing or preventing any form of risk before an attack occurs. Also, organisations can implement new controls earlier. The main advantage of using the CAM approach is that the parameters used are objective, consistent and applicable to CPS

Practical application of a model for assessing the criticality of railway infrastructure elements

Rail transport is an important sub-sector of transport infrastructure. Disruption of its operation due to emergencies can result in a reduction in functional parameters of provided services with consequent impacts on society. Identifi cation of critical elements of this system enables its timely and effective protection. On that ground, the article presents a draft model for assessing the criticality of railway infrastructure elements. This model uses a systems approach and multicriteria semi-quantitative analysis with weighted criteria for calculating the criticality of individual elements of the railway infrastructure. In the conclusion, it presents a practical application of the proposed model including the discussion of results

The "water-specific PPP risk model"

Risk assessment is one of the key success factors of public-private partnerships (PPP) water projects. Factors such as utility condition problems, unsustainable increase in water supply requirements, socio-technical issues and changes in government policies can cause such capital-intensive projects to overrun planned budget and schedule allocations. Where the project is a commercial asset, delayed completion time and cost overruns usually have significant impact on the profitability of the project as well as the estimated returns on investment over the operational phase of the project. Understanding the specific risks involved in PPP water projects can be very crucial in designing containment measures to deal with their likely impact on the projects. Through the combination of review of literature and questionnaires, different risk elements in PPP water projects were first identified. The identified elements were then rated and prioritized using the Analytical Network Process (ANP) to demonstrate the complex interactions among those risks and to establish the most salient Value-for-Money (VFM) variables on PPP water projects. The outcome of this research is an innovative ANP-based model known as the “Water-Specific PPP Risk Model” that offers a platform to incorporate tangible and intangible risk variables into a risk assessment process in water infrastructure projects

Protecting critical infrastructure in the EU: CEPS task force report

2sìCritical infrastructures such as energy, communications, banking, transportation, public government services, information technology etc., are more vital to industrialized economies and now than ever before. At the same time, these infrastructures are becoming increasingly dependent on each other, such that failure of one of them can often propagate and result in domino effects. The emerging challenge of Critical (information) Infrastructure Protection (C(I)IP) has been recognized by nearly all member states of the European Union: politicians are increasingly aware of the threats posed by radical political movements and terrorist attacks, as well as the need to develop better response capacity in case of natural disasters. Responses to these facts have been in line with the available resources and possibilities of each country, so that certain countries are already quite advanced in translating the C(I)IP challenge into measures, whereas others are lagging behind. In the international arena of this policy domain, Europe is still in search of a role to play. Recently, CIIP policy has been integrated in the EU Digital Agenda, which testifies to the growing importance of securing resilient infrastructures for the future. This important and most topical Task Force Report is the result of in-depth discussions between experts from different backgrounds and offers a number of observations and recommendations for a more effective and joined-up European policy response to the protection of critical infrastructure.openopenAndrea Renda; Bernhard HaemmerliRenda, Andrea; Bernhard, Haemmerl

Automating Security Risk and Requirements Management for Cyber-Physical Systems

Cyber-physische Systeme ermöglichen zahlreiche moderne Anwendungsfälle und Geschäftsmodelle wie vernetzte Fahrzeuge, das intelligente Stromnetz (Smart Grid) oder das industrielle Internet der Dinge. Ihre Schlüsselmerkmale Komplexität, Heterogenität und Langlebigkeit machen den langfristigen Schutz dieser Systeme zu einer anspruchsvollen, aber unverzichtbaren Aufgabe. In der physischen Welt stellen die Gesetze der Physik einen festen Rahmen für Risiken und deren Behandlung dar. Im Cyberspace gibt es dagegen keine vergleichbare Konstante, die der Erosion von Sicherheitsmerkmalen entgegenwirkt. Hierdurch können sich bestehende Sicherheitsrisiken laufend ändern und neue entstehen. Um Schäden durch böswillige Handlungen zu verhindern, ist es notwendig, hohe und unbekannte Risiken frühzeitig zu erkennen und ihnen angemessen zu begegnen. Die Berücksichtigung der zahlreichen dynamischen sicherheitsrelevanten Faktoren erfordert einen neuen Automatisierungsgrad im Management von Sicherheitsrisiken und -anforderungen, der über den aktuellen Stand der Wissenschaft und Technik hinausgeht. Nur so kann langfristig ein angemessenes, umfassendes und konsistentes Sicherheitsniveau erreicht werden. Diese Arbeit adressiert den dringenden Bedarf an einer Automatisierungsmethodik bei der Analyse von Sicherheitsrisiken sowie der Erzeugung und dem Management von Sicherheitsanforderungen für Cyber-physische Systeme. Das dazu vorgestellte Rahmenwerk umfasst drei Komponenten: (1) eine modelbasierte Methodik zur Ermittlung und Bewertung von Sicherheitsrisiken; (2) Methoden zur Vereinheitlichung, Ableitung und Verwaltung von Sicherheitsanforderungen sowie (3) eine Reihe von Werkzeugen und Verfahren zur Erkennung und Reaktion auf sicherheitsrelevante Situationen. Der Schutzbedarf und die angemessene Stringenz werden durch die Sicherheitsrisikobewertung mit Hilfe von Graphen und einer sicherheitsspezifischen Modellierung ermittelt und bewertet. Basierend auf dem Modell und den bewerteten Risiken werden anschließend fundierte Sicherheitsanforderungen zum Schutz des Gesamtsystems und seiner Funktionalität systematisch abgeleitet und in einer einheitlichen, maschinenlesbaren Struktur formuliert. Diese maschinenlesbare Struktur ermöglicht es, Sicherheitsanforderungen automatisiert entlang der Lieferkette zu propagieren. Ebenso ermöglicht sie den effizienten Abgleich der vorhandenen Fähigkeiten mit externen Sicherheitsanforderungen aus Vorschriften, Prozessen und von Geschäftspartnern. Trotz aller getroffenen Maßnahmen verbleibt immer ein gewisses Restrisiko einer Kompromittierung, worauf angemessen reagiert werden muss. Dieses Restrisiko wird durch Werkzeuge und Prozesse adressiert, die sowohl die lokale und als auch die großräumige Erkennung, Klassifizierung und Korrelation von Vorfällen verbessern. Die Integration der Erkenntnisse aus solchen Vorfällen in das Modell führt häufig zu aktualisierten Bewertungen, neuen Anforderungen und verbessert weitere Analysen. Abschließend wird das vorgestellte Rahmenwerk anhand eines aktuellen Anwendungsfalls aus dem Automobilbereich demonstriert.Cyber-Physical Systems enable various modern use cases and business models such as connected vehicles, the Smart (power) Grid, or the Industrial Internet of Things. Their key characteristics, complexity, heterogeneity, and longevity make the long-term protection of these systems a demanding but indispensable task. In the physical world, the laws of physics provide a constant scope for risks and their treatment. In cyberspace, on the other hand, there is no such constant to counteract the erosion of security features. As a result, existing security risks can constantly change and new ones can arise. To prevent damage caused by malicious acts, it is necessary to identify high and unknown risks early and counter them appropriately. Considering the numerous dynamic security-relevant factors requires a new level of automation in the management of security risks and requirements, which goes beyond the current state of the art. Only in this way can an appropriate, comprehensive, and consistent level of security be achieved in the long term. This work addresses the pressing lack of an automation methodology for the security-risk assessment as well as the generation and management of security requirements for Cyber-Physical Systems. The presented framework accordingly comprises three components: (1) a model-based security risk assessment methodology, (2) methods to unify, deduce and manage security requirements, and (3) a set of tools and procedures to detect and respond to security-relevant situations. The need for protection and the appropriate rigor are determined and evaluated by the security risk assessment using graphs and a security-specific modeling. Based on the model and the assessed risks, well-founded security requirements for protecting the overall system and its functionality are systematically derived and formulated in a uniform, machine-readable structure. This machine-readable structure makes it possible to propagate security requirements automatically along the supply chain. Furthermore, they enable the efficient reconciliation of present capabilities with external security requirements from regulations, processes, and business partners. Despite all measures taken, there is always a slight risk of compromise, which requires an appropriate response. This residual risk is addressed by tools and processes that improve the local and large-scale detection, classification, and correlation of incidents. Integrating the findings from such incidents into the model often leads to updated assessments, new requirements, and improves further analyses. Finally, the presented framework is demonstrated by a recent application example from the automotive domain