Spatial-temporal data modelling and processing for personalised decision support

The purpose of this research is to undertake the modelling of dynamic data without losing any of the temporal relationships, and to be able to predict likelihood of outcome as far in advance of actual occurrence as possible. To this end a novel computational architecture for personalised ( individualised) modelling of spatio-temporal data based on spiking neural network methods (PMeSNNr), with a three dimensional visualisation of relationships between variables is proposed. In brief, the architecture is able to transfer spatio-temporal data patterns from a multidimensional input stream into internal patterns in the spiking neural network reservoir. These patterns are then analysed to produce a personalised model for either classification or prediction dependent on the specific needs of the situation. The architecture described above was constructed using MatLab© in several individual modules linked together to form NeuCube (M1). This methodology has been applied to two real world case studies. Firstly, it has been applied to data for the prediction of stroke occurrences on an individual basis. Secondly, it has been applied to ecological data on aphid pest abundance prediction. Two main objectives for this research when judging outcomes of the modelling are accurate prediction and to have this at the earliest possible time point. The implications of these findings are not insignificant in terms of health care management and environmental control. As the case studies utilised here represent vastly different application fields, it reveals more of the potential and usefulness of NeuCube (M1) for modelling data in an integrated manner. This in turn can identify previously unknown (or less understood) interactions thus both increasing the level of reliance that can be placed on the model created, and enhancing our human understanding of the complexities of the world around us without the need for over simplification. Read less Keywords Personalised modelling; Spiking neural network; Spatial-temporal data modelling; Computational intelligence; Predictive modelling; Stroke risk predictio

Spatial-temporal data modelling and processing for personalised decision support

The purpose of this research is to undertake the modelling of dynamic data without losing any of the temporal relationships, and to be able to predict likelihood of outcome as far in advance of actual occurrence as possible. To this end a novel computational architecture for personalised ( individualised) modelling of spatio-temporal data based on spiking neural network methods (PMeSNNr), with a three dimensional visualisation of relationships between variables is proposed. In brief, the architecture is able to transfer spatio-temporal data patterns from a multidimensional input stream into internal patterns in the spiking neural network reservoir. These patterns are then analysed to produce a personalised model for either classification or prediction dependent on the specific needs of the situation. The architecture described above was constructed using MatLab© in several individual modules linked together to form NeuCube (M1). This methodology has been applied to two real world case studies. Firstly, it has been applied to data for the prediction of stroke occurrences on an individual basis. Secondly, it has been applied to ecological data on aphid pest abundance prediction. Two main objectives for this research when judging outcomes of the modelling are accurate prediction and to have this at the earliest possible time point. The implications of these findings are not insignificant in terms of health care management and environmental control. As the case studies utilised here represent vastly different application fields, it reveals more of the potential and usefulness of NeuCube (M1) for modelling data in an integrated manner. This in turn can identify previously unknown (or less understood) interactions thus both increasing the level of reliance that can be placed on the model created, and enhancing our human understanding of the complexities of the world around us without the need for over simplification. Read less Keywords Personalised modelling; Spiking neural network; Spatial-temporal data modelling; Computational intelligence; Predictive modelling; Stroke risk predictio

Pilot, Rollout and Monte Carlo Tree Search Methods for Job Shop Scheduling

Greedy heuristics may be attuned by looking ahead for each possible choice, in an approach called the rollout or Pilot method. These methods may be seen as meta-heuristics that can enhance (any) heuristic solution, by repetitively modifying a master solution: similarly to what is done in game tree search, better choices are identified using lookahead, based on solutions obtained by repeatedly using a greedy heuristic. This paper first illustrates how the Pilot method improves upon some simple well known dispatch heuristics for the job-shop scheduling problem. The Pilot method is then shown to be a special case of the more recent Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) methods: Unlike the Pilot method, MCTS methods use random completion of partial solutions to identify promising branches of the tree. The Pilot method and a simple version of MCTS, using the $\varepsilon$-greedy exploration paradigms, are then compared within the same framework, consisting of 300 scheduling problems of varying sizes with fixed-budget of rollouts. Results demonstrate that MCTS reaches better or same results as the Pilot methods in this context.Comment: Learning and Intelligent OptimizatioN (LION'6) 7219 (2012

Dynamic scheduling in a multi-product manufacturing system

To remain competitive in global marketplace, manufacturing companies need to improve their operational practices. One of the methods to increase competitiveness in manufacturing is by implementing proper scheduling system. This is important to enable job orders to be completed on time, minimize waiting time and maximize utilization of equipment and machineries. The dynamics of real manufacturing system are very complex in nature. Schedules developed based on deterministic algorithms are unable to effectively deal with uncertainties in demand and capacity. Significant differences can be found between planned schedules and actual schedule implementation. This study attempted to develop a scheduling system that is able to react quickly and reliably for accommodating changes in product demand and manufacturing capacity. A case study, 6 by 6 job shop scheduling problem was adapted with uncertainty elements added to the data sets. A simulation model was designed and implemented using ARENA simulation package to generate various job shop scheduling scenarios. Their performances were evaluated using scheduling rules, namely, first-in-first-out (FIFO), earliest due date (EDD), and shortest processing time (SPT). An artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed and trained using various scheduling scenarios generated by ARENA simulation. The experimental results suggest that the ANN scheduling model can provided moderately reliable prediction results for limited scenarios when predicting the number completed jobs, maximum flowtime, average machine utilization, and average length of queue. This study has provided better understanding on the effects of changes in demand and capacity on the job shop schedules. Areas for further study includes: (i) Fine tune the proposed ANN scheduling model (ii) Consider more variety of job shop environment (iii) Incorporate an expert system for interpretation of results. The theoretical framework proposed in this study can be used as a basis for further investigation