Skill vs. Luck in Entrepreneurship and Venture Capital: Evidence from Serial Entrepreneurs

This paper argues that a large component of success in entrepreneurship and venture capital can be attributed to skill. We show that entrepreneurs with a track record of success are more likely to succeed than first time entrepreneurs and those who have previously failed. Funding by more experienced venture capital firms enhances the chance of success, but only for entrepreneurs without a successful track record. Similarly, more experienced venture capitalists are able to identify and invest in first time entrepreneurs who are more likely to become serial entrepreneurs. Investments by venture capitalists in successful serial entrepreneurs generate higher returns for their venture capital investors. This finding provides further support for the role of skill in both entrepreneurship and venture capital.

Luck vs Skill in Gambling over the Recession. Evidence from Italy

We perform an econometric analysis of the gambling market in Italy over the recession (2009-2012), observing the consumption patterns in "luck" and "skill" games. We find a different effect between the early and late period of the crisis. Whereas gambling initially behaves as normal good, in the long run luck games increase with the worsening of economic conditions. Moreover, skill games are more persistent and influence luck games, but not the opposite. Skill players choose simple lottery games, but luck players cannot handle complex games. Our results provide insights on investment choices in financial markets among expert and naïve buyers

Toward Legalization of Poker: The Skill vs. Chance Debate

This paper sheds light on the age-old argument as to whether poker is a game in which skill predominates over chance or vice versa. Recent work addressing the issue of skill vs. chance is reviewed. This current study considers two different scenarios to address the issue: 1) a mathematical analysis supported by computer simulations of one random player and one skilled player in Texas Hold\u27Em, and 2) full-table simulation games of Texas Hold\u27Em and Seven Card Stud. Findings for scenario 1 showed the skilled player winning 97 percent of the hands. Findings for scenario 2 further reinforced that highly skilled players convincingly beat unskilled players. Following this study that shows poker as predominantly a skill game, various gaming jurisdictions might declare poker as such, thus legalizing and broadening the game for new venues, new markets, new demographics, and new media. Internet gaming in particular could be expanded and released from its current illegality in the U.S. with benefits accruing to casinos who wish to offer online poker

Intentional Action in Folk Psychology: An Experimental Investigation

Four experiments examined people’s folk-psychological concept of intentional action. The chief question was whether or not evaluative considerations — considerations of good and bad, right and wrong, praise and blame — played any role in that concept. The results indicated that the moral qualities of a behavior strongly influence people’s judgements as to whether or not that behavior should be considered ‘intentional.’ After eliminating a number of alternative explanations, the author concludes that this effect is best explained by the hypothesis that evaluative considerations do play some role in people’s concept of intentional action

Skill in epistemology I: Skill and knowledge

Knowledge and skill are intimately connected. In this essay, I discuss the question of their relationship and of which (if any) is prior to which in the order of explanation. I review some of the answers that have been given thus far in the literature, with a particular focus on the many foundational issues in epistemology that intersect with the philosophy of skill

The EVF Model: A Novel Framework for Understanding Gambling and, by Extension, Poker

There are several senses in which the term gambling is used. All have liabilities, problems that have muddied the waters in scientific research, generated conflicting legal decisions, compromised debates over ethical and moral issues, and have led to uneven legislation. Here, a novel framework for the term is offered, based on two continuous variables: a) the Expected Value (EV) of any arbitrary game and, b) the inherent Flexibility (F) of that game. This EVF model produces a classification system for all the enterprises that can or have been called gambling. It is one that allows for more measured decisions to be made and provides a more coherent platform on which to deliberate the many significant issues that have been raised over the years. It also permits a sensible answer to the question of the nature of games like the stock market, opening a small business, and especially, poker