Subjective Versus Objective Economic Measures, A fuzzy logic exercise

It is rather evident that there is much more (statistical) information about objective aggregates, such as inflation, output or unemployment than that concerning subjective aggregates, such as well-being, satisfaction, confidence or even expectations. Due to its characteristics, fuzzy logic can and should indeed be used to understand how some of those subjective measures can be approximated by objective ones. This task is accomplished in the paper by the use of Portuguese data on consumer confidence - the subjective economic measure - and on the unemployment rate - the objective economic measure -. The results clearly indicate that to be a worthwhile exercise as the clear importance of unemployment on confidence is only revealed by the fuzzy logic approximation

Matching bias in syllogistic reasoning: Evidence for a dual-process account from response times and confidence ratings

We examined matching bias in syllogistic reasoning by analysing response times, confidence ratings, and individual differences. Roberts’ (2005) “negations paradigm” was used to generate conflict between the surface features of problems and the logical status of conclusions. The experiment replicated matching bias effects in conclusion evaluation (Stupple & Waterhouse, 2009), revealing increased processing times for matching/logic “conflict problems”. Results paralleled chronometric evidence from the belief bias paradigm indicating that logic/belief conflict problems take longer to process than non-conflict problems (Stupple, Ball, Evans, & Kamal-Smith, 2011). Individuals’ response times for conflict problems also showed patterns of association with the degree of overall normative responding. Acceptance rates, response times, metacognitive confidence judgements, and individual differences all converged in supporting dual-process theory. This is noteworthy because dual-process predictions about heuristic/analytic conflict in syllogistic reasoning generalised from the belief bias paradigm to a situation where matching features of conclusions, rather than beliefs, were set in opposition to logic

THE INFLUENCE OF MATHEMATICAL LOGIC INTELLIGENCE AND STUDENTS’ CONFIDENCE ON PROBLEM SOLVING ABILITY

This study aims to determine the influence of mathematical logic intelligence and students' confidence on problem-solving abilities. The method used in this study was a quantitative survey method by taking a sample of 34 students randomly. The data collection technique uses a questionnaire instrument for intelligence, logic, mathematics and self-confidence, while the test instrument for problem solving ability is in the form of a description question consisting of 5 questions. Testing the hypothesis of mathematical logic intelligence variables with problem-solving ability obtained tcount 2.750 > ttable 2.040 and Sig. value of 0.010 ttable 2.040 and Sig. value of 0.017 Ftable 3.295 and Sig. values of 0.000 < 0.05 which means that there is a significant influence of mathematical logic intelligence and confidence on problem solving ability. The R Square value obtained is 0.526, which means that simultaneously the variables of intelligence, mathematical logic and self-confidence affect problem solving ability by 52.6%

Context-dependent Trust Decisions with Subjective Logic

A decision procedure implemented over a computational trust mechanism aims to allow for decisions to be made regarding whether some entity or information should be trusted. As recognised in the literature, trust is contextual, and we describe how such a context often translates into a confidence level which should be used to modify an underlying trust value. J{\o}sang's Subjective Logic has long been used in the trust domain, and we show that its operators are insufficient to address this problem. We therefore provide a decision-making approach about trust which also considers the notion of confidence (based on context) through the introduction of a new operator. In particular, we introduce general requirements that must be respected when combining trustworthiness and confidence degree, and demonstrate the soundness of our new operator with respect to these properties.Comment: 19 pages, 4 figures, technical report of the University of Aberdeen (preprint version