An advanced cost estimation methodology for engineering systems

A mathematically advanced method for improving the fidelity of cost estimation for an engineering system is presented. In this method historical cost records can be expanded either through the use of local metamodels or by using an engineering build‐up model. In either case, the expanded data set is analyzed using principal component analysis (PCA) in order to identify the physical parameters, and the principal components (PCs) which demonstrate the highest correlation to the cost. A set of predictor variables, composed of the physical parameters and of the multipliers of the principal components which demonstrate the highest correlation to the cost, is developed. This new set of predictor variables is regressed, using the Kriging method, thus creating a cost estimation model with a high level of predictive capability and fidelity. The new methodology is used for analyzing a set of cost data available in the literature, and the new cost model is compared to results from a neural network based analysis and to a cost regression model. Further, a case study addressing the fabrication of a submarine pressure hull is developed in order to illustrate the new method. The results from the final regression model are presented and compared to results from other cost regression methods. The technical characteristics of the new novel general method are presented and discussed. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Syst EngPeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/90246/1/20192_ftp.pd

Artificial neural networks for location estimation and co-cannel interference suppression in cellular networks

This thesis reports on the application of artificial neural networks to two important problems encountered in cellular communications, namely, location estimation and co-channel interference suppression. The prediction of a mobile location using propagation path loss (signal strength) is a very difficult and complex task. Several techniques have been proposed recently mostly based on linearized, geometrical and maximum likelihood methods. An alternative approach based on artificial neural networks is proposed in this thesis which offers the advantages of increased flexibility to adapt to different environments and high speed parallel processing. Location estimation provides users of cellular telephones with information about their location. Some of the existing location estimation techniques such as those used in GPS satellite navigation systems require non-standard features, either from the cellular phone or the cellular network. However, it is possible to use the existing GSM technology for location estimation by taking advantage of the signals transmitted between the phone and the network. This thesis proposes the application of neural networks to predict the location coordinates from signal strength data. New multi-layered perceptron and radial basis function based neural networks are employed for the prediction of mobile locations using signal strength measurements in a simulated COST-231 metropolitan environment. In addition, initial preliminary results using limited available real signal-strength measurements in a metropolitan environment are also reported comparing the performance of the neural predictors with a conventional linear technique. The results indicate that the neural predictors can be trained to provide a near perfect mapping using signal strength measurements from two or more base stations. The second application of neural networks addressed in this thesis, is concerned with adaptive equalization, which is known to be an important technique for combating distortion and Inter-Symbol Interference (ISI) in digital communication channels. However, many communication systems are also impaired by what is known as co-channel interference (CCI). Many digital communications systems such as digital cellular radio (DCR) and dual polarized micro-wave radio, for example, employ frequency re-usage and often exhibit performance limitation due to co-channel interference. The degradation in performance due to CCI is more severe than due to ISI. Therefore, simple and effective interference suppression techniques are required to mitigate the interference for a high-quality signal reception. The current work briefly reviews the application of neural network based non-linear adaptive equalizers to the problem of combating co-channel interference, without a priori knowledge of the channel or co-channel orders. A realistic co-channel system is used as a case study to demonstrate the superior equalization capability of the functional-link neural network based Decision Feedback Equalizer (DFE) compared to other conventional linear and neural network based non-linear adaptive equalizers.This project was funded by Solectron (Scotland) Ltd

Data Analytics and Performance Enhancement in Edge-Cloud Collaborative Internet of Things Systems

Based on the evolving communications, computing and embedded systems technologies, Internet of Things (IoT) systems can interconnect not only physical users and devices but also virtual services and objects, which have already been applied to many different application scenarios, such as smart home, smart healthcare, and intelligent transportation. With the rapid development, the number of involving devices increases tremendously. The huge number of devices and correspondingly generated data bring critical challenges to the IoT systems. To enhance the overall performance, this thesis aims to address the related technical issues on IoT data processing and physical topology discovery of the subnets self-organized by IoT devices. First of all, the issues on outlier detection and data aggregation are addressed through the development of recursive principal component analysis (R-PCA) based data analysis framework. The framework is developed in a cluster-based structure to fully exploit the spatial correlation of IoT data. Specifically, the sensing devices are gathered into clusters based on spatial data correlation. Edge devices are assigned to the clusters for the R-PCA based outlier detection and data aggregation. The outlier-free and aggregated data are forwarded to the remote cloud server for data reconstruction and storage. Moreover, a data reduction scheme is further proposed to relieve the burden on the trunk link for data uploading by utilizing the temporal data correlation. Kalman filters (KFs) with identical parameters are maintained at the edge and cloud for data prediction. The amount of data uploading is reduced by using the data predicted by the KF in the cloud instead of uploading all the practically measured data. Furthermore, an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) assisted IoT system is particularly designed for large-scale monitoring. Wireless sensor nodes are flexibly deployed for environmental sensing and self-organized into wireless sensor networks (WSNs). A physical topology discovery scheme is proposed to construct the physical topology of WSNs in the cloud server to facilitate performance optimization, where the physical topology indicates both the logical connectivity statuses of WSNs and the physical locations of WSN nodes. The physical topology discovery scheme is implemented through the newly developed parallel Metropolis-Hastings random walk based information sampling and network-wide 3D localization algorithms, where UAVs are served as the mobile edge devices and anchor nodes. Based on the physical topology constructed in the cloud, a UAV-enabled spatial data sampling scheme is further proposed to efficiently sample data from the monitoring area by using denoising autoencoder (DAE). By deploying the encoder of DAE at the UAV and decoder in the cloud, the data can be partially sampled from the sensing field and accurately reconstructed in the cloud. In the final part of the thesis, a novel autoencoder (AE) neural network based data outlier detection algorithm is proposed, where both encoder and decoder of AE are deployed at the edge devices. Data outliers can be accurately detected by the large fluctuations in the squared error generated by the data passing through the encoder and decoder of the AE

Methodological evolution and frontiers of identifying, modeling and preventing secondary crashes on highways

© 2018 Elsevier Ltd Secondary crashes (SCs) or crashes that occur within the boundaries of the impact area of prior, primary crashes are one of the incident types that frequently affect highway traffic operations and safety. Existing studies have made great efforts to explore the underlying mechanisms of SCs and relevant methodologies have been e volving over the last two decades concerning the identification, modeling, and prevention of these crashes. So far there is a lack of a detailed examination on the progress, lessons, and potential opportunities regarding existing achievements in SC-related studies. This paper provides a comprehensive investigation of the state-of-the-art approaches; examines their strengths and weaknesses; and provides guidance in exploiting new directions in SC-related research. It aims to support researchers and practitioners in understanding well-established approaches so as to further explore the frontiers. Published studies focused on SCs since 1997 have been identified, reviewed, and summarized. Key issues concentrated on the following aspects are discussed: (i) static/dynamic approaches to identify SCs; (ii) parametric/non-parametric models to analyze SC risk, and (iii) deployable countermeasures to prevent SCs. Based on the examined issues, needs, and challenges, this paper further provides insights into potential opportunities such as: (a) fusing data from multiple sources for SC identification, (b) using advanced learning algorithms for real-time SC analysis, and (c) deploying connected vehicles for SC prevention in future research. This paper contributes to the research community by providing a one-stop reference for research on secondary crashes

Enhanced Methods for Utilization of Data to Support Multi-Scenario Analysis and Multi-Resolution Modeling

The success of analysis and simulation in transportation systems depends on the availability, quality, reliability, and consistency of real-world data and the methods for utilizing the data. Additional data and data requirements are needed to support advanced analysis and simulation strategies such as multi-resolution modeling (MRM) and multi-scenario analysis. This study has developed, demonstrated, and assessed a systematic approach for the use of data to support MRM and multi-scenario analysis. First, the study developed and examined approaches for selecting one or more representative days for the analysis, considering the variability in travel conditions throughout the year based on cluster analysis. Second, this study developed and analyzed methods for using crowdsourced data vii to estimate origin-destination demands and link-level volumes for use as part of an MRM with consideration of the modeling scenario(s). The assessment of the methods to select the representative day(s) utilizes statistical measures, in addition to measures and visualization techniques that are specific to traffic operations. The results of the assessment indicate that the utilization of the K-means clustering algorithm with four clusters and spatio-temporal segregation of the variables demonstrated superior performance over other tested approaches, such as the use of the Gaussian Mixture clustering algorithm and the use of different segregation levels. The study assessed methods for the use of third-party crowdsourced data from StreetLight (SL) as part of the Origin-Destination Matrix Estimation (ODME), which identifies the method resulting in the closest origin-destination demands to the original seed matrices and real-world link counts. The results of the study indicate that Method 3(b) produced the best performance, which utilized combined data from demand forecasting models, crowdsourced data, and traffic counts. Additionally, this study examined regression models between crowdsourced data and count station data developed for link-level estimation of the volumes. This study also examined the accuracy and transferability of the link-level estimation of the volumes to determine if the crowdsourced data combined with available volume data at several locations can be used to predict missing or unavailable volumes in different locations on different days and times within the network. Regression models produced low errors than the default SL estimates when hourly or daily traffic volumes were taken into account. For similar traffic conditions, the models predicted directional traffic volume close to the real-world value