Predicting Stock Price of Construction Companies using Weighted Ensemble Learning

Modeling the behavior of stock price data has always been one of the challengeous applications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) due to its high complexity and dependence on various conditions. Recent studies show that this will be difficult to do with just one learning model. The problem can be more complex for companies of construction section, due to the dependency of their behavior on more conditions. This study aims to provide a hybrid model for improving the accuracy of prediction for stock price index of companies in construction section. The contribution of this paper can be considered as follows: First, a combination of several prediction models is used to predict stock price, so that learning models can cover each other's error. In this research, an ensemble model based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and Classification and Regression Tree (CART) is presented for predicting stock price index. Second, the optimization technique is used to determine the effect of each learning model on the prediction result. For this purpose, first all three mentioned algorithms process the data simultaneously and perform the prediction operation. Then, using the Cuckoo Search (CS) algorithm, the output weight of each algorithm is determined as a coefficient. Finally, using the ensemble technique, these results are combined and the final output is generated through weighted averaging on optimal coefficients. The results showed that using CS optimization in the proposed ensemble system is highly effective in reducing prediction error. Comparing the evaluation results of the proposed system with similar algorithms, indicates that our model is more accurate and can be useful for predicting stock price index in real-world scenarios

Hybrid harmony search algorithm for continuous optimization problems

Harmony Search (HS) algorithm has been extensively adopted in the literature to address optimization problems in many different fields, such as industrial design, civil engineering, electrical and mechanical engineering problems. In order to ensure its search performance, HS requires extensive tuning of its four parameters control namely harmony memory size (HMS), harmony memory consideration rate (HMCR), pitch adjustment rate (PAR), and bandwidth (BW). However, tuning process is often cumbersome and is problem dependent. Furthermore, there is no one size fits all problems. Additionally, despite many useful works, HS and its variant still suffer from weak exploitation which can lead to poor convergence problem. Addressing these aforementioned issues, this thesis proposes to augment HS with adaptive tuning using Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO). Meanwhile, to enhance its exploitation, this thesis also proposes to adopt a new variant of the opposition-based learning technique (OBL). Taken together, the proposed hybrid algorithm, called IHS-GWO, aims to address continuous optimization problems. The IHS-GWO is evaluated using two standard benchmarking sets and two real-world optimization problems. The first benchmarking set consists of 24 classical benchmark unimodal and multimodal functions whilst the second benchmark set contains 30 state-of-the-art benchmark functions from the Congress on Evolutionary Computation (CEC). The two real-world optimization problems involved the three-bar truss and spring design. Statistical analysis using Wilcoxon rank-sum and Friedman of IHS-GWO’s results with recent HS variants and other metaheuristic demonstrate superior performance

Optimization for Decision Making II

In the current context of the electronic governance of society, both administrations and citizens are demanding the greater participation of all the actors involved in the decision-making process relative to the governance of society. This book presents collective works published in the recent Special Issue (SI) entitled “Optimization for Decision Making II”. These works give an appropriate response to the new challenges raised, the decision-making process can be done by applying different methods and tools, as well as using different objectives. In real-life problems, the formulation of decision-making problems and the application of optimization techniques to support decisions are particularly complex and a wide range of optimization techniques and methodologies are used to minimize risks, improve quality in making decisions or, in general, to solve problems. In addition, a sensitivity or robustness analysis should be done to validate/analyze the influence of uncertainty regarding decision-making. This book brings together a collection of inter-/multi-disciplinary works applied to the optimization of decision making in a coherent manner

Enabling and Understanding Failure of Engineering Structures Using the Technique of Cohesive Elements

In this paper, we describe a cohesive zone model for the prediction of failure of engineering solids and/or structures. A damage evolution law is incorporated into a three-dimensional, exponential cohesive law to account for material degradation under the influence of cyclic loading. This cohesive zone model is implemented in the finite element software ABAQUS through a user defined subroutine. The irreversibility of the cohesive zone model is first verified and subsequently applied for studying cyclic crack growth in specimens experiencing different modes of fracture and/or failure. The crack growth behavior to include both crack initiation and crack propagation becomes a natural outcome of the numerical simulation. Numerical examples suggest that the irreversible cohesive zone model can serve as an efficient tool to predict fatigue crack growth. Key issues such as crack path deviation, convergence and mesh dependency are also discussed

User-oriented mobility management in cellular wireless networks

2020 Spring.Includes bibliographical references.Mobility Management (MM) in wireless mobile networks is a vital process to keep an individual User Equipment (UE) connected while moving within the network coverage area—this is required to keep the network informed about the UE's mobility (i.e., location changes). The network must identify the exact serving cell of a specific UE for the purpose of data-packet delivery. The two MM procedures that are necessary to localize a specific UE and deliver data packets to that UE are known as Tracking Area Update (TAU) and Paging, which are burdensome not only to the network resources but also UE's battery—the UE and network always initiate the TAU and Paging, respectively. These two procedures are used in current Long Term Evolution (LTE) and its next generation (5G) networks despite the drawback that it consumes bandwidth and energy. Because of potentially very high-volume traffic and increasing density of high-mobility UEs, the TAU/Paging procedure incurs significant costs in terms of the signaling overhead and the power consumption in the battery-limited UE. This problem will become even worse in 5G, which is expected to accommodate exceptional services, such as supporting mission-critical systems (close-to-zero latency) and extending battery lifetime (10 times longer). This dissertation examines and discusses a variety of solution schemes for both the TAU and Paging, emphasizing a new key design to accommodate 5G use cases. However, ongoing efforts are still developing new schemes to provide seamless connections to the ever-increasing density of high-mobility UEs. In this context and toward achieving 5G use cases, we propose a novel solution to solve the MM issues, named gNB-based UE Mobility Tracking (gNB-based UeMT). This solution has four features aligned with achieving 5G goals. First, the mobile UE will no longer trigger the TAU to report their location changes, giving much more power savings with no signaling overhead. Instead, second, the network elements, gNBs, take over the responsibility of Tracking and Locating these UE, giving always-known UE locations. Third, our Paging procedure is markedly improved over the conventional one, providing very fast UE reachability with no Paging messages being sent simultaneously. Fourth, our solution guarantees lightweight signaling overhead with very low Paging delay; our simulation studies show that it achieves about 92% reduction in the corresponding signaling overhead. To realize these four features, this solution adds no implementation complexity. Instead, it exploits the already existing LTE/5G communication protocols, functions, and measurement reports. Our gNB-based UeMT solution by design has the potential to deal with mission-critical applications. In this context, we introduce a new approach for mission-critical and public-safety communications. Our approach aims at emergency situations (e.g., natural disasters) in which the mobile wireless network becomes dysfunctional, partially or completely. Specifically, this approach is intended to provide swift network recovery for Search-and-Rescue Operations (SAROs) to search for survivors after large-scale disasters, which we call UE-based SAROs. These SAROs are based on the fact that increasingly almost everyone carries wireless mobile devices (UEs), which serve as human-based wireless sensors on the ground. Our UE-based SAROs are aimed at accounting for limited UE battery power while providing critical information to first responders, as follows: 1) generate immediate crisis maps for the disaster-impacted areas, 2) provide vital information about where the majority of survivors are clustered/crowded, and 3) prioritize the impacted areas to identify regions that urgently need communication coverage. UE-based SAROs offer first responders a vital tool to prioritize and manage SAROs efficiently and effectively in a timely manner

RFID Technology in Intelligent Tracking Systems in Construction Waste Logistics Using Optimisation Techniques

Construction waste disposal is an urgent issue for protecting our environment. This paper proposes a waste management system and illustrates the work process using plasterboard waste as an example, which creates a hazardous gas when land filled with household waste, and for which the recycling rate is less than 10% in the UK. The proposed system integrates RFID technology, Rule-Based Reasoning, Ant Colony optimization and knowledge technology for auditing and tracking plasterboard waste, guiding the operation staff, arranging vehicles, schedule planning, and also provides evidence to verify its disposal. It h relies on RFID equipment for collecting logistical data and uses digital imaging equipment to give further evidence; the reasoning core in the third layer is responsible for generating schedules and route plans and guidance, and the last layer delivers the result to inform users. The paper firstly introduces the current plasterboard disposal situation and addresses the logistical problem that is now the main barrier to a higher recycling rate, followed by discussion of the proposed system in terms of both system level structure and process structure. And finally, an example scenario will be given to illustrate the system’s utilization

Proceedings of the Second International Mobile Satellite Conference (IMSC 1990)

Presented here are the proceedings of the Second International Mobile Satellite Conference (IMSC), held June 17-20, 1990 in Ottawa, Canada. Topics covered include future mobile satellite communications concepts, aeronautical applications, modulation and coding, propagation and experimental systems, mobile terminal equipment, network architecture and control, regulatory and policy considerations, vehicle antennas, and speech compression