2,226 research outputs found

    A Bayesian-Based Approach for Public Sentiment Modeling

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    Public sentiment is a direct public-centric indicator for the success of effective action planning. Despite its importance, systematic modeling of public sentiment remains untapped in previous studies. This research aims to develop a Bayesian-based approach for quantitative public sentiment modeling, which is capable of incorporating uncertainty and guiding the selection of public sentiment measures. This study comprises three steps: (1) quantifying prior sentiment information and new sentiment observations with Dirichlet distribution and multinomial distribution respectively; (2) deriving the posterior distribution of sentiment probabilities through incorporating the Dirichlet distribution and multinomial distribution via Bayesian inference; and (3) measuring public sentiment through aggregating sampled sets of sentiment probabilities with an application-based measure. A case study on Hurricane Harvey is provided to demonstrate the feasibility and applicability of the proposed approach. The developed approach also has the potential to be generalized to model various types of probability-based measures

    Using Robust PCA to estimate regional characteristics of language use from geo-tagged Twitter messages

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    Principal component analysis (PCA) and related techniques have been successfully employed in natural language processing. Text mining applications in the age of the online social media (OSM) face new challenges due to properties specific to these use cases (e.g. spelling issues specific to texts posted by users, the presence of spammers and bots, service announcements, etc.). In this paper, we employ a Robust PCA technique to separate typical outliers and highly localized topics from the low-dimensional structure present in language use in online social networks. Our focus is on identifying geospatial features among the messages posted by the users of the Twitter microblogging service. Using a dataset which consists of over 200 million geolocated tweets collected over the course of a year, we investigate whether the information present in word usage frequencies can be used to identify regional features of language use and topics of interest. Using the PCA pursuit method, we are able to identify important low-dimensional features, which constitute smoothly varying functions of the geographic location

    Learning and Forecasting Opinion Dynamics in Social Networks

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    Social media and social networking sites have become a global pinboard for exposition and discussion of news, topics, and ideas, where social media users often update their opinions about a particular topic by learning from the opinions shared by their friends. In this context, can we learn a data-driven model of opinion dynamics that is able to accurately forecast opinions from users? In this paper, we introduce SLANT, a probabilistic modeling framework of opinion dynamics, which represents users opinions over time by means of marked jump diffusion stochastic differential equations, and allows for efficient model simulation and parameter estimation from historical fine grained event data. We then leverage our framework to derive a set of efficient predictive formulas for opinion forecasting and identify conditions under which opinions converge to a steady state. Experiments on data gathered from Twitter show that our model provides a good fit to the data and our formulas achieve more accurate forecasting than alternatives
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