Discrete and hybrid methods for the diagnosis of distributed systems

Many important activities of modern society rely on the proper functioning of complex systems such as electricity networks, telecommunication networks, manufacturing plants and aircrafts. The supervision of such systems must include strong diagnosis capability to be able to effectively detect the occurrence of faults and ensure appropriate corrective measures can be taken in order to recover from the faults or prevent total failure. This thesis addresses issues in the diagnosis of large complex systems. Such systems are usually distributed in nature, i.e. they consist of many interconnected components each having their own local behaviour. These components interact together to produce an emergent global behaviour that is complex. As those systems increase in complexity and size, their diagnosis becomes increasingly challenging. In the first part of this thesis, a method is proposed for diagnosis on distributed systems that avoids a monolithic global computation. The method, based on converting the graph of the system into a junction tree, takes into account the topology of the system in choosing how to merge local diagnoses on the components while still obtaining a globally consistent result. The method is shown to work well for systems with tree or near-tree structures. This method is further extended to handle systems with high clustering by selectively ignoring some connections that would still allow an accurate diagnosis to be obtained. A hybrid system approach is explored in the second part of the thesis, where continuous dynamics information on the system is also retained to help better isolate or identify faults. A hybrid system framework is presented that models both continuous dynamics and discrete evolution in dynamical systems, based on detecting changes in the fundamental governing dynamics of the system rather than on residual estimation. This makes it possible to handle systems that might not be well characterised and where parameter drift is present. The discrete aspect of the hybrid system model is used to derive diagnosability conditions using indicator functions for the detection and isolation of multiple, arbitrary sequential or simultaneous events in hybrid dynamical networks. Issues with diagnosis in the presence of uncertainty in measurements due sensor or actuator noise are addressed. Faults may generate symptoms that are in the same order of magnitude as the latter. The use of statistical techniques,within a hybrid system framework, is proposed to detect these elusive fault symptoms and translate this information into probabilities for the actual operational mode and possibility of transition between modes which makes it possible to apply probabilistic analysis on the system to handle the underlying uncertainty present

A More General Theory of Diagnosis from First Principles

Model-based diagnosis has been an active research topic in different communities including artificial intelligence, formal methods, and control. This has led to a set of disparate approaches addressing different classes of systems and seeking different forms of diagnoses. In this paper, we resolve such disparities by generalising Reiter's theory to be agnostic to the types of systems and diagnoses considered. This more general theory of diagnosis from first principles defines the minimal diagnosis as the set of preferred diagnosis candidates in a search space of hypotheses. Computing the minimal diagnosis is achieved by exploring the space of diagnosis hypotheses, testing sets of hypotheses for consistency with the system's model and the observation, and generating conflicts that rule out successors and other portions of the search space. Under relatively mild assumptions, our algorithms correctly compute the set of preferred diagnosis candidates. The main difficulty here is that the search space is no longer a powerset as in Reiter's theory, and that, as consequence, many of the implicit properties (such as finiteness of the search space) no longer hold. The notion of conflict also needs to be generalised and we present such a more general notion. We present two implementations of these algorithms, using test solvers based on satisfiability and heuristic search, respectively, which we evaluate on instances from two real world discrete event problems. Despite the greater generality of our theory, these implementations surpass the special purpose algorithms designed for discrete event systems, and enable solving instances that were out of reach of existing diagnosis approaches

A Multi-agent System for Outliers Accommodation in Wireless Sensor Networks

This work has been partially supported by the European Commission under the contract FP7-ICT-224282 (GINSENG) and Project CENTRO-07-ST24-FEDER-002003 (iCIS-Intelligent Computing in the Internet of Services).In monitoring applications the accuracy of data is paramount. When considering wireless sensor networks the quality of readings taken from the environment may be hampered by outliers in raw data collected from transmitters attached to nodes' analogue-to-digital converter ports. To improve the data quality sent to the base-station, a real-time data analysis should be implemented at nodes' level, while taking into account their computing power and storage limitations. This paper deals with the problem of outliers detection and accommodation in raw data. The proposed approach relies on univariate statistics within an hierarchical multi-agent framework. Results from experiments on a real monitoring scenario, at a major oil refinery plant, show the relevance of the proposed approach.publishersversionpublishe

A Predictive Model of Nuclear Power Plant Crew Decision-Making and Performance in a Dynamic Simulation Environment

The safe operation of complex systems such as nuclear power plants requires close coordination between the human operators and plant systems. In order to maintain an adequate level of safety following an accident or other off-normal event, the operators often are called upon to perform complex tasks during dynamic situations with incomplete information. The safety of such complex systems can be greatly improved if the conditions that could lead operators to make poor decisions and commit erroneous actions during these situations can be predicted and mitigated. The primary goal of this research project was the development and validation of a cognitive model capable of simulating nuclear plant operator decision-making during accident conditions. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment methods can improve the prediction of human error events by providing rich contextual information and an explicit consideration of feedback arising from man-machine interactions. The Accident Dynamics Simulator paired with the Information, Decision, and Action in a Crew context cognitive model (ADS-IDAC) shows promise for predicting situational contexts that might lead to human error events, particularly knowledge driven errors of commission. ADS-IDAC generates a discrete dynamic event tree (DDET) by applying simple branching rules that reflect variations in crew responses to plant events and system status changes. Branches can be generated to simulate slow or fast procedure execution speed, skipping of procedure steps, reliance on memorized information, activation of mental beliefs, variations in control inputs, and equipment failures. Complex operator mental models of plant behavior that guide crew actions can be represented within the ADS-IDAC mental belief framework and used to identify situational contexts that may lead to human error events. This research increased the capabilities of ADS-IDAC in several key areas. The ADS-IDAC computer code was improved to support additional branching events and provide a better representation of the IDAC cognitive model. An operator decision-making engine capable of responding to dynamic changes in situational context was implemented. The IDAC human performance model was fully integrated with a detailed nuclear plant model in order to realistically simulate plant accident scenarios. Finally, the improved ADS-IDAC model was calibrated, validated, and updated using actual nuclear plant crew performance data. This research led to the following general conclusions: (1) A relatively small number of branching rules are capable of efficiently capturing a wide spectrum of crew-to-crew variabilities. (2) Compared to traditional static risk assessment methods, ADS-IDAC can provide a more realistic and integrated assessment of human error events by directly determining the effect of operator behaviors on plant thermal hydraulic parameters. (3) The ADS-IDAC approach provides an efficient framework for capturing actual operator performance data such as timing of operator actions, mental models, and decision-making activities