A rest time-based prognostic framework for state of health estimation of lithium-ion batteries with regeneration phenomena

State of health (SOH) prognostics is significant for safe and reliable usage of lithium-ion batteries. To accurately predict regeneration phenomena and improve long-term prediction performance of battery SOH, this paper proposes a rest time-based prognostic framework (RTPF) in which the beginning time interval of two adjacent cycles is adopted to reflect the rest time. In this framework, SOH values of regeneration cycles, the number of cycles in regeneration regions and global degradation trends are extracted from raw SOH time series and predicted respectively, and then the three sets of prediction results are integrated to calculate the final overall SOH prediction values. Regeneration phenomena can be found by support vector machine and hyperplane shift (SVM-HS) model by detecting long beginning time intervals. Gaussian process (GP) model is utilized to predict the global degradation trend, and nonlinear models are utilized to predict the regeneration amplitude and the cycle number of each regeneration region. The proposed framework is validated through experimental data from the degradation tests of lithium-ion batteries. The results demonstrate that both the global degradation trend and the regeneration phenomena of the testing batteries can be well predicted. Moreover, compared with the published methods, more accurate SOH prediction results can be obtained under this framewor

Online Lifetime Prediction for Lithium-Ion Batteries with Cycle-by-Cycle Updates, Variance Reduction, and Model Ensembling

This project was funded by an industry-academia grant EPSRC EP/R511687/1 awarded by EPSRC & University of Edinburgh program Impact Acceleration Account (IAA). R. Ibraheem is a Ph.D. student in EPSRC’s MAC-MIGS Centre for Doctoral Training. MAC-MIGS is supported by the UK’s Engineering and Physical Science Research Council (grant number EP/S023291/1). G. dos Reis acknowledges support from the Faraday Institution [grant number FIRG049]. Publisher Copyright: © 2023 by the authors.Lithium-ion batteries have found applications in many parts of our daily lives. Predicting their remaining useful life (RUL) is thus essential for management and prognostics. Most approaches look at early life prediction of RUL in the context of designing charging profiles or optimising cell design. While critical, said approaches are not directly applicable to the regular testing of cells used in applications. This article focuses on a class of models called ‘one-cycle’ models which are suitable for this task and characterized by versatility (in terms of online prediction frameworks and model combinations), prediction from limited input, and cells’ history independence. Our contribution is fourfold. First, we show the wider deployability of the so-called one-cycle model for a different type of battery data, thus confirming its wider scope of use. Second, reflecting on how prediction models can be leveraged within battery management cloud solutions, we propose a universal Exponential-smoothing (e-forgetting) mechanism that leverages cycle-to-cycle prediction updates to reduce prediction variance. Third, we use this new model as a second-life assessment tool by proposing a knee region classifier. Last, using model ensembling, we build a “model of models”. We show that it outperforms each underpinning model (from in-cycle variability, cycle-to-cycle variability, and empirical models). This ‘ensembling’ strategy allows coupling explainable and black-box methods, thus giving the user extra control over the final model.publishersversionpublishe

Model-free non-invasive health assessment for battery energy storage assets

Increasing penetration of renewable energy generation in the modern power network introduces uncertainty about the energy available to maintain a balance between generation and demand due to its time-fluctuating output that is strongly dependent on the weather. With the development of energy storage technology, there is the potential for this technology to become a key element to help overcome this intermittency in a generation. However, the increasing penetration of battery energy storage within the power network introduces an additional challenge to asset owners on how to monitor and manage battery health. The accurate estimation of the health of this device is crucial in determining its reliability, power-delivering capability and ability to contribute to the operation of the whole power system. Generally, doing this requires invasive measurements or computationally expensive physics-based models, which do not scale up cost-effectively to a fleet of assets. As storage aggregation becomes more commonplace, there is a need for a health metric that will be able to predict battery health based only on the limited information available, eliminating the necessity of installation of extensive telemetry in the system. This work develops a solution to battery health prognostics by providing an alternative, a non-invasive approach to the estimation of battery health that estimates the extent to which a battery asset has been maloperated based only on the battery-operating regime imposed on the device. The model introduced in this work is based on the Hidden Markov Model, which stochastically models the battery limitations imposed by its chemistry as a combination of present and previous sequential charging actions, and articulates the preferred operating regime as a measure of health consequence. The resulting methodology is demonstrated on distribution network level electrical demand and generation data, accurately predicting maloperation under a number of battery technology scenarios. The effectiveness of the proposed battery maloperation model as a proxy for actual battery degradation for lithium-ion technology was also tested against lab tested battery degradation data, showing that the proposed health measure in terms of maloperation level reflected that measured in terms of capacity fade. The developed model can support condition monitoring and remaining useful life estimates, but in the wider context could also be used as the policy function in an automated scheduler to utilise assets while optimising their health.Increasing penetration of renewable energy generation in the modern power network introduces uncertainty about the energy available to maintain a balance between generation and demand due to its time-fluctuating output that is strongly dependent on the weather. With the development of energy storage technology, there is the potential for this technology to become a key element to help overcome this intermittency in a generation. However, the increasing penetration of battery energy storage within the power network introduces an additional challenge to asset owners on how to monitor and manage battery health. The accurate estimation of the health of this device is crucial in determining its reliability, power-delivering capability and ability to contribute to the operation of the whole power system. Generally, doing this requires invasive measurements or computationally expensive physics-based models, which do not scale up cost-effectively to a fleet of assets. As storage aggregation becomes more commonplace, there is a need for a health metric that will be able to predict battery health based only on the limited information available, eliminating the necessity of installation of extensive telemetry in the system. This work develops a solution to battery health prognostics by providing an alternative, a non-invasive approach to the estimation of battery health that estimates the extent to which a battery asset has been maloperated based only on the battery-operating regime imposed on the device. The model introduced in this work is based on the Hidden Markov Model, which stochastically models the battery limitations imposed by its chemistry as a combination of present and previous sequential charging actions, and articulates the preferred operating regime as a measure of health consequence. The resulting methodology is demonstrated on distribution network level electrical demand and generation data, accurately predicting maloperation under a number of battery technology scenarios. The effectiveness of the proposed battery maloperation model as a proxy for actual battery degradation for lithium-ion technology was also tested against lab tested battery degradation data, showing that the proposed health measure in terms of maloperation level reflected that measured in terms of capacity fade. The developed model can support condition monitoring and remaining useful life estimates, but in the wider context could also be used as the policy function in an automated scheduler to utilise assets while optimising their health

Model migration neural network for predicting battery aging trajectories

Accurate prediction of batteries’ future degradation is a key solution to relief users’ anxiety on battery lifespan and electric vehicle’s driving range. Technical challenges arise from the highly nonlinear dynamics of battery aging. In this paper, a feed-forward migration neural network is proposed to predict the batteries’ aging trajectories. Specifically, a base model that describes the capacity decay over time is first established from the existed battery aging dataset. This base model is then transformed by an input-output slope-and-bias-correction (SBC) method structure to capture the degradation of target cell. To enhance the model’s nonlinear transfer capability, the SBC-model is further integrated into a four-layer neural network, and easily trained via the gradient correlation algorithm. The proposed migration neural network is experimentally verified with four different commercial batteries. The predicted RMSEs are all lower than 2.5% when using only the first 30% of aging trajectories for neural network training. In addition, illustrative results demonstrate that a small size feed-forward neural network (down to 1-5-5-1) is sufficient for battery aging trajectory prediction

De-SaTE: Denoising Self-attention Transformer Encoders for Li-ion Battery Health Prognostics

The usage of Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries has gained widespread popularity across various industries, from powering portable electronic devices to propelling electric vehicles and supporting energy storage systems. A central challenge in Li-ion battery reliability lies in accurately predicting their Remaining Useful Life (RUL), which is a critical measure for proactive maintenance and predictive analytics. This study presents a novel approach that harnesses the power of multiple denoising modules, each trained to address specific types of noise commonly encountered in battery data. Specifically, a denoising auto-encoder and a wavelet denoiser are used to generate encoded/decomposed representations, which are subsequently processed through dedicated self-attention transformer encoders. After extensive experimentation on NASA and CALCE data, a broad spectrum of health indicator values are estimated under a set of diverse noise patterns. The reported error metrics on these data are on par with or better than the state-of-the-art reported in recent literature.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures, 3 table

Ensemble bias-correction based state of charge estimation of lithium-Ion batteries

It is an essential task of battery management system (BMS) to online estimate the State of Charge (SoC) of a Lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery, an important indicator of the remaining charge in the battery. Accurate modeling of the electrical behavior of a Li-ion battery can provide an accurate approximation of the battery dynamic characteristics during charging/discharging and relaxation phases. This is essential to accurate online estimation of the battery SoC. Equivalent circuit models (ECMs) are widely used to assist with online SoC estimation because of their simplicity and high computational efficiency. This thesis proposes an ensemble bias-correction (BC) method with adaptive weights to improve the accuracy of an equivalent circuit model (ECM) in dynamic modeling of Li-ion batteries. The contribution of this thesis is threefold: (i) the introduction of the concept of time period; (ii) the development of a novel ensemble method based on BC learning to model the dynamic characteristics of Li-ion batteries; and (iii) the creation of an adaptive-weighting scheme to learn online the weights of offline member BC models for building an online ensemble BC model. Repeated pulsing discharge tests with single and multiple C-rates were conducted on seven Li-ion battery cells to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed ensemble BC method

State of health estimation for lithium-ion batteries under arbitrary usage using data-driven multi-model fusion

Accurately estimating the state of health (SoH) of batteries is indispensable for the safety, reliability, and optimal energy and power management of electric vehicles. However, from a data-driven perspective, complications, such as dynamic vehicle operating conditions, stochastic user behaviors, and cell-to-cell variations, make the estimation task challenging. This work develops a data-driven multi-model fusion method for SoH estimation under arbitrary usage profiles. All possible operating conditions are categorized into six scenarios. For each scenario, an appropriate feature set is extracted to indicate the SoH. Based on the obtained features, four machine learning algorithms are applied individually to train SoH estimation models using time-series data. In addition to the estimates at the current time step, a histogram data-based and online adaptive model is taken from previous work for predicting the next-step SoH. Then, a Kalman filter is applied to systematically fuse the results of all the estimation and prediction models. Experimental data collected from different types of batteries operated under diverse profiles verify the effectiveness and practicability of the developed method, as well as its superiority over individual models

Prognostics and health management for maintenance practitioners - Review, implementation and tools evaluation.

In literature, prognostics and health management (PHM) systems have been studied by many researchers from many different engineering fields to increase system reliability, availability, safety and to reduce the maintenance cost of engineering assets. Many works conducted in PHM research concentrate on designing robust and accurate models to assess the health state of components for particular applications to support decision making. Models which involve mathematical interpretations, assumptions and approximations make PHM hard to understand and implement in real world applications, especially by maintenance practitioners in industry. Prior knowledge to implement PHM in complex systems is crucial to building highly reliable systems. To fill this gap and motivate industry practitioners, this paper attempts to provide a comprehensive review on PHM domain and discusses important issues on uncertainty quantification, implementation aspects next to prognostics feature and tool evaluation. In this paper, PHM implementation steps consists of; (1) critical component analysis, (2) appropriate sensor selection for condition monitoring (CM), (3) prognostics feature evaluation under data analysis and (4) prognostics methodology and tool evaluation matrices derived from PHM literature. Besides PHM implementation aspects, this paper also reviews previous and on-going research in high-speed train bogies to highlight problems faced in train industry and emphasize the significance of PHM for further investigations