Linear Distances between Markov Chains

We introduce a general class of distances (metrics) between Markov chains, which are based on linear behaviour. This class encompasses distances given topologically (such as the total variation distance or trace distance) as well as by temporal logics or automata. We investigate which of the distances can be approximated by observing the systems, i.e. by black-box testing or simulation, and we provide both negative and positive results

Perturbation bounds and degree of imprecision for uniquely convergent imprecise Markov chains

The effect of perturbations of parameters for uniquely convergent imprecise Markov chains is studied. We provide the maximal distance between the distributions of original and perturbed chain and maximal degree of imprecision, given the imprecision of the initial distribution. The bounds on the errors and degrees of imprecision are found for the distributions at finite time steps, and for the stationary distributions as well.Comment: 20 pages, 2 figure

Competition between Two Kinds of Correlations in Literary Texts

A theory of additive Markov chains with long-range memory is used for description of correlation properties of coarse-grained literary texts. The complex structure of the correlations in texts is revealed. Antipersistent correlations at small distances, L 300 define this nontrivial structure. For some concrete examples of literary texts, the memory functions are obtained and their power-law behavior at long distances is disclosed. This property is shown to be a cause of self-similarity of texts with respect to the decimation procedure.Comment: 7 pages, 7 figures, Submitted to Physica

Information-geometric Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods using Diffusions

Recent work incorporating geometric ideas in Markov chain Monte Carlo is reviewed in order to highlight these advances and their possible application in a range of domains beyond Statistics. A full exposition of Markov chains and their use in Monte Carlo simulation for Statistical inference and molecular dynamics is provided, with particular emphasis on methods based on Langevin diffusions. After this geometric concepts in Markov chain Monte Carlo are introduced. A full derivation of the Langevin diffusion on a Riemannian manifold is given, together with a discussion of appropriate Riemannian metric choice for different problems. A survey of applications is provided, and some open questions are discussed.Comment: 22 pages, 2 figure

Computing Probabilistic Bisimilarity Distances for Probabilistic Automata

The probabilistic bisimilarity distance of Deng et al. has been proposed as a robust quantitative generalization of Segala and Lynch's probabilistic bisimilarity for probabilistic automata. In this paper, we present a characterization of the bisimilarity distance as the solution of a simple stochastic game. The characterization gives us an algorithm to compute the distances by applying Condon's simple policy iteration on these games. The correctness of Condon's approach, however, relies on the assumption that the games are stopping. Our games may be non-stopping in general, yet we are able to prove termination for this extended class of games. Already other algorithms have been proposed in the literature to compute these distances, with complexity in $\textbf{UP} \cap \textbf{coUP}$ and \textbf{PPAD}. Despite the theoretical relevance, these algorithms are inefficient in practice. To the best of our knowledge, our algorithm is the first practical solution. The characterization of the probabilistic bisimilarity distance mentioned above crucially uses a dual presentation of the Hausdorff distance due to M\'emoli. As an additional contribution, in this paper we show that M\'emoli's result can be used also to prove that the bisimilarity distance bounds the difference in the maximal (or minimal) probability of two states to satisfying arbitrary $\omega$-regular properties, expressed, eg., as LTL formulas

Additive N-Step Markov Chains as Prototype Model of Symbolic Stochastic Dynamical Systems with Long-Range Correlations

A theory of symbolic dynamic systems with long-range correlations based on the consideration of the binary N-step Markov chains developed earlier in Phys. Rev. Lett. 90, 110601 (2003) is generalized to the biased case (non equal numbers of zeros and unities in the chain). In the model, the conditional probability that the i-th symbol in the chain equals zero (or unity) is a linear function of the number of unities (zeros) among the preceding N symbols. The correlation and distribution functions as well as the variance of number of symbols in the words of arbitrary length L are obtained analytically and verified by numerical simulations. A self-similarity of the studied stochastic process is revealed and the similarity group transformation of the chain parameters is presented. The diffusion Fokker-Planck equation governing the distribution function of the L-words is explored. If the persistent correlations are not extremely strong, the distribution function is shown to be the Gaussian with the variance being nonlinearly dependent on L. An equation connecting the memory and correlation function of the additive Markov chain is presented. This equation allows reconstructing a memory function using a correlation function of the system. Effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method is demonstrated by simple model examples. Memory functions of concrete coarse-grained literary texts are found and their universal power-law behavior at long distances is revealed.Comment: 19 pages, 8 figure