Limit Theorems for a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross Process with Hawkes Jumps

In this paper, we propose a stochastic process, which is a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process with Hawkes jumps. It can be seen as a generalization of the classical Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process and the classical Hawkes process with exponential exciting function. Our model is a special case of the affine point processes. Laplace transforms and limit theorems have been obtained, including law of large numbers, central limit theorems and large deviations.Comment: 14 page

Limit theorems for nearly unstable Hawkes processes

Because of their tractability and their natural interpretations in term of market quantities, Hawkes processes are nowadays widely used in high-frequency finance. However, in practice, the statistical estimation results seem to show that very often, only nearly unstable Hawkes processes are able to fit the data properly. By nearly unstable, we mean that the $L^1$ norm of their kernel is close to unity. We study in this work such processes for which the stability condition is almost violated. Our main result states that after suitable rescaling, they asymptotically behave like integrated Cox-Ingersoll-Ross models. Thus, modeling financial order flows as nearly unstable Hawkes processes may be a good way to reproduce both their high and low frequency stylized facts. We then extend this result to the Hawkes-based price model introduced by Bacry et al. [Quant. Finance 13 (2013) 65-77]. We show that under a similar criticality condition, this process converges to a Heston model. Again, we recover well-known stylized facts of prices, both at the microstructure level and at the macroscopic scale.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AAP1005 the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Alpha-CIR Model with Branching Processes in Sovereign Interest Rate Modelling

We introduce a class of interest rate models, called the $\alpha$-CIR model, which gives a natural extension of the standard CIR model by adopting the $\alpha$-stable L{\'e}vy process and preserving the branching property. This model allows to describe in a unified and parsimonious way several recent observations on the sovereign bond market such as the persistency of low interest rate together with the presence of large jumps at local extent. We emphasize on a general integral representation of the model by using random fields, with which we establish the link to the CBI processes and the affine models. Finally we analyze the jump behaviors and in particular the large jumps, and we provide numerical illustrations

Convergence to equilibrium for time inhomogeneous jump diffusions with state dependent jump intensity

We consider a time inhomogeneous jump Markov process $X = (X_t)_t$ with state dependent jump intensity, taking values in $R^d .$ Its infinitesimal generator is given by \begin{multline*} L_t f (x) = \sum_{i=1}^d \frac{\partial f}{\partial x_i } (x) b^i ( t,x) - \sum_{ i =1}^d \frac{\partial f}{\partial x_i } (x) \int_{E_1} c_1^i ( t, z, x) \gamma_1 ( t, z, x ) \mu_1 (dz ) \\ + \sum_{l=1}^3 \int_{E_l} [ f ( x + c_l ( t, z, x)) - f(x)] \gamma_l ( t, z, x) \mu_l (dz ) , \end{multline*} where $(E_l , {\mathcal E}_l, \mu_l ) , 1 \le l \le 3,$ are sigma-finite measurable spaces describing three different jump regimes of the process (fast, intermediate, slow). We give conditions proving that the long time behavior of $X$ can be related to the one of a time homogeneous limit process $\bar X .$ Moreover, we introduce a coupling method for the limit process which is entirely based on certain of its big jumps and which relies on the regeneration method. We state explicit conditions in terms of the coefficients of the process allowing to control the speed of convergence to equilibrium both for $X$ and for $\bar X.

Limit theorems for nearly unstable Hawkes processes: Version with technical appendix

Because of their tractability and their natural interpretations in term of market quantities, Hawkes processes are nowadays widely used in high frequency finance. However, in practice, the statistical estimation results seem to show that very often, only "nearly unstable Hawkes processes" are able to fit the data properly. By nearly unstable, we mean that the L1 norm of their kernel is close to unity. We study in this work such processes for which the stability condition is almost violated. Our main result states that after suitable rescaling, they asymptotically behave like integrated Cox Ingersoll Ross models. Thus, modeling financial order flows as nearly unstable Hawkes processes may be a good way to reproduce both their high and low frequency stylized facts. We then extend this result to the Hawkes based price model introduced by Bacry et al. We show that under a similar criticality condition, this process converges to a Heston model. Again, we recover well known stylized facts of prices, both at the microstructure level and at the macroscopic scale