Context-aware Event Forecasting via Graph Disentanglement

Event forecasting has been a demanding and challenging task throughout the entire human history. It plays a pivotal role in crisis alarming and disaster prevention in various aspects of the whole society. The task of event forecasting aims to model the relational and temporal patterns based on historical events and makes forecasting to what will happen in the future. Most existing studies on event forecasting formulate it as a problem of link prediction on temporal event graphs. However, such pure structured formulation suffers from two main limitations: 1) most events fall into general and high-level types in the event ontology, and therefore they tend to be coarse-grained and offers little utility which inevitably harms the forecasting accuracy; and 2) the events defined by a fixed ontology are unable to retain the out-of-ontology contextual information. To address these limitations, we propose a novel task of context-aware event forecasting which incorporates auxiliary contextual information. First, the categorical context provides supplementary fine-grained information to the coarse-grained events. Second and more importantly, the context provides additional information towards specific situation and condition, which is crucial or even determinant to what will happen next. However, it is challenging to properly integrate context into the event forecasting framework, considering the complex patterns in the multi-context scenario. Towards this end, we design a novel framework named Separation and Collaboration Graph Disentanglement (short as SeCoGD) for context-aware event forecasting. Since there is no available dataset for this novel task, we construct three large-scale datasets based on GDELT. Experimental results demonstrate that our model outperforms a list of SOTA methods.Comment: KDD 2023, 9 pages, 7 figures, 4 table

Classifying Sequences of Extreme Length with Constant Memory Applied to Malware Detection

Recent works within machine learning have been tackling inputs of ever-increasing size, with cybersecurity presenting sequence classification problems of particularly extreme lengths. In the case of Windows executable malware detection, inputs may exceed $100$ MB, which corresponds to a time series with $T=100,000,000$ steps. To date, the closest approach to handling such a task is MalConv, a convolutional neural network capable of processing up to $T=2,000,000$ steps. The $\mathcal{O}(T)$ memory of CNNs has prevented further application of CNNs to malware. In this work, we develop a new approach to temporal max pooling that makes the required memory invariant to the sequence length $T$. This makes MalConv $116\times$ more memory efficient, and up to $25.8\times$ faster to train on its original dataset, while removing the input length restrictions to MalConv. We re-invest these gains into improving the MalConv architecture by developing a new Global Channel Gating design, giving us an attention mechanism capable of learning feature interactions across 100 million time steps in an efficient manner, a capability lacked by the original MalConv CNN. Our implementation can be found at https://github.com/NeuromorphicComputationResearchProgram/MalConv2Comment: To appear in AAAI 202

Temporal models for mining, ranking and recommendation in the Web

Due to their first-hand, diverse and evolution-aware reflection of nearly all areas of life, heterogeneous temporal datasets i.e., the Web, collaborative knowledge bases and social networks have been emerged as gold-mines for content analytics of many sorts. In those collections, time plays an essential role in many crucial information retrieval and data mining tasks, such as from user intent understanding, document ranking to advanced recommendations. There are two semantically closed and important constituents when modeling along the time dimension, i.e., entity and event. Time is crucially served as the context for changes driven by happenings and phenomena (events) that related to people, organizations or places (so-called entities) in our social lives. Thus, determining what users expect, or in other words, resolving the uncertainty confounded by temporal changes is a compelling task to support consistent user satisfaction. In this thesis, we address the aforementioned issues and propose temporal models that capture the temporal dynamics of such entities and events to serve for the end tasks. Specifically, we make the following contributions in this thesis: (1) Query recommendation and document ranking in the Web - we address the issues for suggesting entity-centric queries and ranking effectiveness surrounding the happening time period of an associated event. In particular, we propose a multi-criteria optimization framework that facilitates the combination of multiple temporal models to smooth out the abrupt changes when transitioning between event phases for the former and a probabilistic approach for search result diversification of temporally ambiguous queries for the latter. (2) Entity relatedness in Wikipedia - we study the long-term dynamics of Wikipedia as a global memory place for high-impact events, specifically the reviving memories of past events. Additionally, we propose a neural network-based approach to measure the temporal relatedness of entities and events. The model engages different latent representations of an entity (i.e., from time, link-based graph and content) and use the collective attention from user navigation as the supervision. (3) Graph-based ranking and temporal anchor-text mining inWeb Archives - we tackle the problem of discovering important documents along the time-span ofWeb Archives, leveraging the link graph. Specifically, we combine the problems of relevance, temporal authority, diversity and time in a unified framework. The model accounts for the incomplete link structure and natural time lagging in Web Archives in mining the temporal authority. (4) Methods for enhancing predictive models at early-stage in social media and clinical domain - we investigate several methods to control model instability and enrich contexts of predictive models at the “cold-start” period. We demonstrate their effectiveness for the rumor detection and blood glucose prediction cases respectively. Overall, the findings presented in this thesis demonstrate the importance of tracking these temporal dynamics surround salient events and entities for IR applications. We show that determining such changes in time-based patterns and trends in prevalent temporal collections can better satisfy user expectations, and boost ranking and recommendation effectiveness over time

Modélisation des comportements de recherche basé sur les interactions des utilisateurs

Les utilisateurs de systèmes d'information divisent normalement les tâches en une séquence de plusieurs étapes pour les résoudre. En particulier, les utilisateurs divisent les tâches de recherche en séquences de requêtes, en interagissant avec les systèmes de recherche pour mener à bien le processus de recherche d'informations. Les interactions des utilisateurs sont enregistrées dans des journaux de requêtes, ce qui permet de développer des modèles pour apprendre automatiquement les comportements de recherche à partir des interactions des utilisateurs avec les systèmes de recherche. Ces modèles sont à la base de multiples applications d'assistance aux utilisateurs qui aident les systèmes de recherche à être plus interactifs, faciles à utiliser, et cohérents. Par conséquent, nous proposons les contributions suivantes : un modèle neuronale pour apprendre à détecter les limites des tâches de recherche dans les journaux de requête ; une architecture de regroupement profond récurrent qui apprend simultanément les représentations de requête et regroupe les requêtes en tâches de recherche ; un modèle non supervisé et indépendant d'utilisateur pour l'identification des tâches de recherche prenant en charge les requêtes dans seize langues ; et un modèle de tâche de recherche multilingue, une approche non supervisée qui modélise simultanément l'intention de recherche de l'utilisateur et les tâches de recherche. Les modèles proposés améliorent les méthodes existantes de modélisation, en tenant compte de la confidentialité des utilisateurs, des réponses en temps réel et de l'accessibilité linguistique. Le respect de la vie privée de l'utilisateur est une préoccupation majeure, tandis que des réponses rapides sont essentielles pour les systèmes de recherche qui interagissent avec les utilisateurs en temps réel, en particulier dans la recherche par conversation. Dans le même temps, l'accessibilité linguistique est essentielle pour aider les utilisateurs du monde entier, qui interagissent avec les systèmes de recherche dans de nombreuses langues. Les contributions proposées peuvent bénéficier à de nombreuses applications d'assistance aux utilisateurs, en aidant ces derniers à mieux résoudre leurs tâches de recherche lorsqu'ils accèdent aux systèmes de recherche pour répondre à leurs besoins d'information.Users of information systems normally divide tasks in a sequence of multiple steps to solve them. In particular, users divide search tasks into sequences of queries, interacting with search systems to carry out the information seeking process. User interactions are registered on search query logs, enabling the development of models to automatically learn search patterns from the users' interactions with search systems. These models underpin multiple user assisting applications that help search systems to be more interactive, user-friendly, and coherent. User assisting applications include query suggestion, the ranking of search results based on tasks, query reformulation analysis, e-commerce applications, retrieval of advertisement, query-term prediction, mapping of queries to search tasks, and so on. Consequently, we propose the following contributions: a neural model for learning to detect search task boundaries in query logs; a recurrent deep clustering architecture that simultaneously learns query representations through self-training, and cluster queries into groups of search tasks; Multilingual Graph-Based Clustering, an unsupervised, user-agnostic model for search task identification supporting queries in sixteen languages; and Language-agnostic Search Task Model, an unsupervised approach that simultaneously models user search intent and search tasks. Proposed models improve on existing methods for modeling user interactions, taking into account user privacy, realtime response times, and language accessibility. User privacy is a major concern in Ethics for intelligent systems, while fast responses are critical for search systems interacting with users in realtime, particularly in conversational search. At the same time, language accessibility is essential to assist users worldwide, who interact with search systems in many languages. The proposed contributions can benefit many user assisting applications, helping users to better solve their search tasks when accessing search systems to fulfill their information needs