Real-Time Predictive Modeling and Robust Avoidance of Pedestrians with Uncertain, Changing Intentions

To plan safe trajectories in urban environments, autonomous vehicles must be able to quickly assess the future intentions of dynamic agents. Pedestrians are particularly challenging to model, as their motion patterns are often uncertain and/or unknown a priori. This paper presents a novel changepoint detection and clustering algorithm that, when coupled with offline unsupervised learning of a Gaussian process mixture model (DPGP), enables quick detection of changes in intent and online learning of motion patterns not seen in prior training data. The resulting long-term movement predictions demonstrate improved accuracy relative to offline learning alone, in terms of both intent and trajectory prediction. By embedding these predictions within a chance-constrained motion planner, trajectories which are probabilistically safe to pedestrian motions can be identified in real-time. Hardware experiments demonstrate that this approach can accurately predict pedestrian motion patterns from onboard sensor/perception data and facilitate robust navigation within a dynamic environment.Comment: Submitted to 2014 International Workshop on the Algorithmic Foundations of Robotic

Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey

With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments, the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR), 37 page

Pedestrian Prediction by Planning using Deep Neural Networks

Accurate traffic participant prediction is the prerequisite for collision avoidance of autonomous vehicles. In this work, we predict pedestrians by emulating their own motion planning. From online observations, we infer a mixture density function for possible destinations. We use this result as the goal states of a planning stage that performs motion prediction based on common behavior patterns. The entire system is modeled as one monolithic neural network and trained via inverse reinforcement learning. Experimental validation on real world data shows the system's ability to predict both, destinations and trajectories accurately

Dynamic Occupancy Grid Prediction for Urban Autonomous Driving: A Deep Learning Approach with Fully Automatic Labeling

Long-term situation prediction plays a crucial role in the development of intelligent vehicles. A major challenge still to overcome is the prediction of complex downtown scenarios with multiple road users, e.g., pedestrians, bikes, and motor vehicles, interacting with each other. This contribution tackles this challenge by combining a Bayesian filtering technique for environment representation, and machine learning as long-term predictor. More specifically, a dynamic occupancy grid map is utilized as input to a deep convolutional neural network. This yields the advantage of using spatially distributed velocity estimates from a single time step for prediction, rather than a raw data sequence, alleviating common problems dealing with input time series of multiple sensors. Furthermore, convolutional neural networks have the inherent characteristic of using context information, enabling the implicit modeling of road user interaction. Pixel-wise balancing is applied in the loss function counteracting the extreme imbalance between static and dynamic cells. One of the major advantages is the unsupervised learning character due to fully automatic label generation. The presented algorithm is trained and evaluated on multiple hours of recorded sensor data and compared to Monte-Carlo simulation

Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction with Structured Memory Hierarchies

This paper presents a novel framework for human trajectory prediction based on multimodal data (video and radar). Motivated by recent neuroscience discoveries, we propose incorporating a structured memory component in the human trajectory prediction pipeline to capture historical information to improve performance. We introduce structured LSTM cells for modelling the memory content hierarchically, preserving the spatiotemporal structure of the information and enabling us to capture both short-term and long-term context. We demonstrate how this architecture can be extended to integrate salient information from multiple modalities to automatically store and retrieve important information for decision making without any supervision. We evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed models on a novel multimodal dataset that we introduce, consisting of 40,000 pedestrian trajectories, acquired jointly from a radar system and a CCTV camera system installed in a public place. The performance is also evaluated on the publicly available New York Grand Central pedestrian database. In both settings, the proposed models demonstrate their capability to better anticipate future pedestrian motion compared to existing state of the art.Comment: To appear in ECML-PKDD 201

Survey on Vision-based Path Prediction

Path prediction is a fundamental task for estimating how pedestrians or vehicles are going to move in a scene. Because path prediction as a task of computer vision uses video as input, various information used for prediction, such as the environment surrounding the target and the internal state of the target, need to be estimated from the video in addition to predicting paths. Many prediction approaches that include understanding the environment and the internal state have been proposed. In this survey, we systematically summarize methods of path prediction that take video as input and and extract features from the video. Moreover, we introduce datasets used to evaluate path prediction methods quantitatively.Comment: DAPI 201

A Data-driven Model for Interaction-aware Pedestrian Motion Prediction in Object Cluttered Environments

This paper reports on a data-driven, interaction-aware motion prediction approach for pedestrians in environments cluttered with static obstacles. When navigating in such workspaces shared with humans, robots need accurate motion predictions of the surrounding pedestrians. Human navigation behavior is mostly influenced by their surrounding pedestrians and by the static obstacles in their vicinity. In this paper we introduce a new model based on Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, which is able to learn human motion behavior from demonstrated data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first approach using LSTMs, that incorporates both static obstacles and surrounding pedestrians for trajectory forecasting. As part of the model, we introduce a new way of encoding surrounding pedestrians based on a 1d-grid in polar angle space. We evaluate the benefit of interaction-aware motion prediction and the added value of incorporating static obstacles on both simulation and real-world datasets by comparing with state-of-the-art approaches. The results show, that our new approach outperforms the other approaches while being very computationally efficient and that taking into account static obstacles for motion predictions significantly improves the prediction accuracy, especially in cluttered environments.Comment: 8 pages, accepted for publication at the IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA) 201

A Data-driven Model for Interaction-aware Pedestrian Motion Prediction in Object Cluttered Environments

This paper reports on a data-driven, interaction-aware motion prediction approach for pedestrians in environments cluttered with static obstacles. When navigating in such workspaces shared with humans, robots need accurate motion predictions of the surrounding pedestrians. Human navigation behavior is mostly influenced by their surrounding pedestrians and by the static obstacles in their vicinity. In this paper we introduce a new model based on Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, which is able to learn human motion behavior from demonstrated data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first approach using LSTMs, that incorporates both static obstacles and surrounding pedestrians for trajectory forecasting. As part of the model, we introduce a new way of encoding surrounding pedestrians based on a 1d-grid in polar angle space. We evaluate the benefit of interaction-aware motion prediction and the added value of incorporating static obstacles on both simulation and real-world datasets by comparing with state-of-the-art approaches. The results show, that our new approach outperforms the other approaches while being very computationally efficient and that taking into account static obstacles for motion predictions significantly improves the prediction accuracy, especially in cluttered environments.Comment: 8 pages, accepted for publication at the IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA) 201