AReS and MaRS - Adversarial and MMD-Minimizing Regression for SDEs

Stochastic differential equations are an important modeling class in many disciplines. Consequently, there exist many methods relying on various discretization and numerical integration schemes. In this paper, we propose a novel, probabilistic model for estimating the drift and diffusion given noisy observations of the underlying stochastic system. Using state-of-the-art adversarial and moment matching inference techniques, we avoid the discretization schemes of classical approaches. This leads to significant improvements in parameter accuracy and robustness given random initial guesses. On four established benchmark systems, we compare the performance of our algorithms to state-of-the-art solutions based on extended Kalman filtering and Gaussian processes.Comment: Published at the Thirty-sixth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2019

Stochastic gradient descent performs variational inference, converges to limit cycles for deep networks

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is widely believed to perform implicit regularization when used to train deep neural networks, but the precise manner in which this occurs has thus far been elusive. We prove that SGD minimizes an average potential over the posterior distribution of weights along with an entropic regularization term. This potential is however not the original loss function in general. So SGD does perform variational inference, but for a different loss than the one used to compute the gradients. Even more surprisingly, SGD does not even converge in the classical sense: we show that the most likely trajectories of SGD for deep networks do not behave like Brownian motion around critical points. Instead, they resemble closed loops with deterministic components. We prove that such "out-of-equilibrium" behavior is a consequence of highly non-isotropic gradient noise in SGD; the covariance matrix of mini-batch gradients for deep networks has a rank as small as 1% of its dimension. We provide extensive empirical validation of these claims, proven in the appendix