Hybrid structural health monitoring using data-driven modal analysis and model-based Bayesian inference.

Civil infrastructures that are valuable assets for the public and owners must be adequately and periodically maintained to guarantee safety, continuous service, and avoid economic losses. Vibration-based structural health monitoring (VBSHM) has been a significant tool to assess the structural performance of civil infrastructures over the last decades. Challenges in VBSHM exist in two aspects: operational modal analysis (OMA) and Finite element model updating (FEMU). The former aims to extract natural frequency, damping ratio, and mode shapes using vibrational data under normal operation; the latter focuses on minimizing the discrepancies between measurements and model prediction. The main impediments to real-world application of VBSHM include 1) uncertainties are inevitably involved due to measurement noise and modeling error; 2) computational burden in analyzing massive data and high-fidelity model; 3) updating structural coupled parameters, e.g., mass and stiffness. Bayesian model updating approach (BMUA) is an advanced FEMU technique to update structural parameters using modal data and account for underlying uncertainties. However, traditional BMUA generally assumes mass is precisely known and only updating stiffness to circumvent the coupling effect of mass and stiffness. Simultaneously updating mass and stiffness is necessary to fully understand the structural integrity, especially when the mass has a relatively large variation. To tackle these challenges, this dissertation proposed a hybrid framework using data-driven and model-based approaches in two sequential phases: automated OMA and a BMUA with added mass/stiffness. Automated stochastic subspace identification (SSI) and Bayesian modal identification are firstly developed to acquire modal properties. Following by a novel BMUA, new eigen-equations based on two sets of modal data from the original and modified system with added mass or stiffness are derived to address the coupling effect of structural parameters, e.g., mass and stiffness. To avoid multi-dimensional integrals, an asymptotic optimization method and Differential Evolutionary Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) sampling algorithm are employed for Bayesian inference. To alleviate computational burden, variance-based global sensitivity analysis to reduce model dimensionality and Kriging model to substitute time-consuming FEM are integrated into BMUA. The proposed VBSHM are verified and illustrated using numerical, laboratory and field test data, achieving following goals: 1) properly treating parameter uncertainties; 2) substantially reducing the computational cost; 3) simultaneously updating structural parameters with addressing the coupling effect; 4) performing the probabilistic damage identification at an accurate level

Real-time Traffic Flow Detection and Prediction Algorithm: Data-Driven Analyses on Spatio-Temporal Traffic Dynamics

Traffic flows over time and space. This spatio-temporal dependency of traffic flow should be considered and used to enhance the performance of real-time traffic detection and prediction capabilities. This characteristic has been widely studied and various applications have been developed and enhanced. During the last decade, great attention has been paid to the increases in the number of traffic data sources, the amount of data, and the data-driven analysis methods. There is still room to improve the traffic detection and prediction capabilities through studies on the emerging resources. To this end, this dissertation presents a series of studies on real-time traffic operation for highway facilities focusing on detection and prediction.First, a spatio-temporal traffic data imputation approach was studied to exploit multi-source data. Different types of kriging methods were evaluated to utilize the spatio-temporal characteristic of traffic data with respect to two factors, including missing patterns and use of secondary data. Second, a short-term traffic speed prediction algorithm was proposed that provides accurate prediction results and is scalable for a large road network analysis in real time. The proposed algorithm consists of a data dimension reduction module and a nonparametric multivariate time-series analysis module. Third, a real-time traffic queue detection algorithm was developed based on traffic fundamentals combined with a statistical pattern recognition procedure. This algorithm was designed to detect dynamic queueing conditions in a spatio-temporal domain rather than detect a queue and congestion directly from traffic flow variables. The algorithm was evaluated by using various real congested traffic flow data. Lastly, gray areas in a decision-making process based on quantifiable measures were addressed to cope with uncertainties in modeling outputs. For intersection control type selection, the gray areas were identified and visualized

Pedestrian Models for Autonomous Driving Part II: High-Level Models of Human Behavior

Abstract—Autonomous vehicles (AVs) must share space with pedestrians, both in carriageway cases such as cars at pedestrian crossings and off-carriageway cases such as delivery vehicles navigating through crowds on pedestrianized high-streets. Unlike static obstacles, pedestrians are active agents with complex, inter- active motions. Planning AV actions in the presence of pedestrians thus requires modelling of their probable future behaviour as well as detecting and tracking them. This narrative review article is Part II of a pair, together surveying the current technology stack involved in this process, organising recent research into a hierarchical taxonomy ranging from low-level image detection to high-level psychological models, from the perspective of an AV designer. This self-contained Part II covers the higher levels of this stack, consisting of models of pedestrian behaviour, from prediction of individual pedestrians’ likely destinations and paths, to game-theoretic models of interactions between pedestrians and autonomous vehicles. This survey clearly shows that, although there are good models for optimal walking behaviour, high-level psychological and social modelling of pedestrian behaviour still remains an open research question that requires many conceptual issues to be clarified. Early work has been done on descriptive and qualitative models of behaviour, but much work is still needed to translate them into quantitative algorithms for practical AV control

Performance Boundary Identification for the Evaluation of Automated Vehicles using Gaussian Process Classification

Safety is an essential aspect in the facilitation of automated vehicle deployment. Current testing practices are not enough, and going beyond them leads to infeasible testing requirements, such as needing to drive billions of kilometres on public roads. Automated vehicles are exposed to an indefinite number of scenarios. Handling of the most challenging scenarios should be tested, which leads to the question of how such corner cases can be determined. We propose an approach to identify the performance boundary, where these corner cases are located, using Gaussian Process Classification. We also demonstrate the classification on an exemplary traffic jam approach scenario, showing that it is feasible and would lead to more efficient testing practices.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures, accepted at 2019 IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems Conference - ITSC 2019, Auckland, New Zealand, October 201

Surrogate model for real time signal control: theories and applications

Traffic signal controls play a vital role in urban road traffic networks. Compared with fixed-time signal control, which is solely based on historical data, real time signal control is flexible and responsive to varying traffic conditions, and hence promises better performance and robustness in managing traffic congestion. Real time signal control can be divided into model-based and model-free approaches. The former requires a traffic model (analytical or simulation-based) in the generation, optimisation and evaluation of signal control plans, which means that its efficacy in real-world deployment depends on the validity and accuracy of the underlying traffic model. Model-free real time signal control, on the other hand, is constructed based on expert experience and empirical observations. Most of the existing model-free real time signal controls, however, focus on learning-based and rule-based approaches, and either lack interpretability or are non-optimised. This thesis proposes a surrogate-based real time signal control and optimisation framework, that can determine signal decisions in a centralised manner without the use of any traffic model. Surrogate models offer analytical and efficient approximations of complex models or black-box processes by fitting their input-output structures with appropriate mathematical tools. Current research on surrogate-based optimisation is limited to strategic and off-line optimisation, which only approximates the relationship between decisions and outputs under highly specific conditions based on certain traffic simulation models and is still to be attempted for real time optimisation. This thesis proposes a framework for surrogate-based real time signal control, by constructing a response surface that encompasses, (1) traffic states, (2) control parameters, and (3) network performance indicators at the same time. A series of comprehensive evaluations are conducted to assess the effectiveness, robustness and computational efficiency of the surrogate-based real time signal control. In the numerical test, the Kriging model is selected to approximate the traffic dynamics of the test network. The results show that this Kriging-based real time signal control can increase the total throughput by 5.3% and reduce the average delay by 8.1% compared with the fixed-time baseline signal plan. In addition, the optimisation time can be reduced by more than 99% if the simulation model is replaced by a Kriging model. The proposed signal controller is further investigated via multi-scenario analyses involving different levels of information availability, network saturation and traffic uncertainty, which shows the robustness and reliability of the controller. Moreover, the influence of the baseline signal on the Kriging-based signal control can be eliminated by a series of off-line updates. By virtue of the model-free nature and the adaptive learning capability of the surrogate model, the Kriging-based real time signal control can adapt to systematic network changes (such as seasonal variations in traffic demand). The adaptive Kriging-based real time signal control can update the response surface according to the feedback from the actual traffic environment. The test results show that the adaptive Kriging-based real time signal control maintains the signal control performance better in response to systematic network changes than either fixed-time signal control or non-adaptive Kriging-based signal control.Open Acces

Cross-Scene Trajectory Level Intention Inference using Gaussian Process Regression and Naive Registration

Human intention inference is the ability of an artificial system to predict the intention of a person. It is important in the context of human-robot interaction and homeland security, where proactive decision making is necessary. Human intention inference systems at test time is given a partial sequence of observations rather than a complete one. At a trajectory level, the observations are 2D/3D spatial human trajectories and intents are 2D/3D spatial locations where these human trajectories might end up. We study a learning approach where we train a model from complete spatial trajectories, and use partial spatial trajectories to test intention predictions early and accurately. We use non-parametric Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) as the learning model since GPR has been shown to model subtle aspects of human trajectory very well. We also develop a simple geometric transfer technique called Naive Registration (NR) that allows us to learn the model using training data in a source scene and then reuse that model for testing data in a target scene. Our results on synthetic and real data suggests that our transfer technique achieves comparable results as the technique of training from scratch in the target scene

Trajectory optimization for exposure to minimal electromagnetic pollution using genetic algorithms approach: A case study

Low-frequency electromagnetic pollution associated with electricity supplies and electrical appliances creates broad and specific challenges. Among them, knowing the values of this pollution in urban areas to prevent long exposure in the daily life human beings is rising in today's information society. This paper presents a comprehensive approach for, first, mapping electromagnetic pollution of complete urban areas and, second, based on the former data, the trajectories planning of commuting with minimal electromagnetic exposure. In the first stage, the proposed approach reduces the number of necessary measurements for the pollution mapping, estimating their value by optimizing functional criteria using genetic algorithms (GAs) and considering the superposition effect of different sources. In the second stage, a combination of a specifically designed search space and GA as optimization algorithm makes it possible to determine an optimized trajectory that represents a balanced solution between distance and exposure to magnetic fields. The results verify the obtaining of a complete mapping with less error, between 1% and 2.5%, in power lines and medium/low voltage (MV/LV) substations, respectively. The proposed approach obtains optimized trajectories for different types of commuting (pedestrians, bikers, and vehicles), and it can be integrated into mobile applications. Finally, the method was tested on an actual urban area in Malaga (Spain).Financing for open access position: University of Malaga / CBUA

A Convolutional Neural Network Model based on Multiscale Structural Similarity for the Prediction of Flow Fields

We have seen the emerging applications of deep neural networks for flow field predictions in the past few years. Most of the efforts rely on the increased complexity of the model itself or take advantage of novel network architectures, such as convolutional neural networks (CNN). However, reaching low prediction error cannot guarantee the quality of the predicted flow fields in terms of the perceived visual quality. This work introduces the multi-scale structural similarity (MS-SSIM) index method for flow field prediction. First, we train CNN models using the commonly used root mean squared error (RMSE) loss function as the reference. Then we introduce the SSIM loss function to capture the high-level features. Furthermore, we investigate the effects of the MS-SSIM weights on the predictive performance. Our results show that while the pixel-wise prediction error of RMSE-based models is as low as 1.3141 x 10−2, the perceived visual quality of the predicted flow fields, such as contour-line smoothness, is poorly represented. In contrast, the MS-SSIM models significantly improve the perceived visual quality with an SSIM loss value as low as 7.370 x 10−3, although having a slightly higher prediction error of 1.3912x10−2 . These values are 41.7% lower in the SSIM loss and 5.9% higher in the RMSE than the best RMSE model. In particular, we report that a weight combination of 0.3 and 0.7 for the MS-SSIM loss function provides the best predictive performance in our case. Our study has pointed out a possible future endeavor to invent a quality metric based on structural similarity, which should excel in flow-field-related approximations

Geostatistical Interpolation and Analyses of Washington State AADT Data from 2009 ? 2016

Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) data in the transportation industry today is an important tool used in various fields such as highway planning, pavement design, traffic safety, transport operations, and policy-making/analyses. Systematic literature review was used to identify the current methods of estimating AADT and ranked. Ordinary linear kriging occurred most. Also, factors that influence the accuracy of AADT estimation methods as identified include geographical location and road type amongst others. In addition, further analysis was carried out to determine the most apposite kriging algorithm for AADT data. Three linear (universal, ordinary, and simple), three nonlinear (disjunctive, probability, and indicator) and bayesian (empirical bayesian) kriging methods were compared. Spherical and exponential models were employed as the experimental variograms to aid the spatial interpolation and cross-validation. Statistical measures of correctness (mean prediction and root-mean-square errors) were used to compare the kriging algorithms. Empirical bayesian with exponential model yielded the best result