Conflicting Objectives in Decisions

This book deals with quantitative approaches in making decisions when conflicting objectives are present. This problem is central to many applications of decision analysis, policy analysis, operational research, etc. in a wide range of fields, for example, business, economics, engineering, psychology, and planning. The book surveys different approaches to the same problem area and each approach is discussed in considerable detail so that the coverage of the book is both broad and deep. The problem of conflicting objectives is of paramount importance, both in planned and market economies, and this book represents a cross-cultural mixture of approaches from many countries to the same class of problem

Urban Consumption of Beef in the Ivory Coast

This paper examines several factors influencing beef consumption in Abidjan. The Ivorian capital constitutes one of the principal markets for livestock from Western African Sahelian countries, notably Mali and Burkina Faso (Upper Volta). Since 1975, moreover, Ivory Coast has supplemented beef supplies with imports of frozen beef from South America, Argentina in particular. The paper analyses consumer preferences for meats in order to assess the effects of frozen beef imports on the market for Sahelian cattle. A more detailed discussion of these preferences are found in the author's 1983 doctoral disseration (School of Business Administration, The University of Michigan).Center for Research on Economic Development, University of Michiganhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/100824/1/ECON282.pd

Aspirations, adaptive learning and cooperation in repeated games

Game Theory;Repeated Games

Interactive Decision Analysis; Proceedings of an International Workshop on Interactive Decision Analysis and Interpretative Computer Intelligence, Laxenburg, Austria, September 20-23, 1983

An International Workshop on Interactive Decision Analysis and Interpretative Computer Intelligence was held at IIASA in September 1983. The Workshop was motivated, firstly, by the realization that the rapid development of computers, especially microcomputers, will greatly increase the scope and capabilities of computerized decision-support systems. It is important to explore the potential of these systems for use in handling the complex technological, environmental, economic and social problems that face the world today. Research in decision-support systems also has another, less tangible but possibly more important, motivation. The development of efficient systems for decision support requires a thorough understanding of the differences between the decision-making processes in different nations and cultures. An understanding of the different rationales underlying decision making is not only necessary for the development of efficient decision-support systems, but it is also an important factor in encouraging international understanding and cooperation. The Proceedings of the Workshop which are contained in this volume are divided in four main sections. The first section consists of an introductory lecture in which a unifying approach to the use of computers and computerized mathematical models for decision analysis and support is described. The second section is concerned with approaches and concepts in interactive decision analysis and section three is devoted to methods and techniques for decision analysis. The final section contains descriptions of a wide range of applications of interactive techniques, covering the fields of economics, public policy planning, energy policy evaluation, hydrology and industrial development

Toward an Adoption Decision Model for Processed Foods in Developing Nations

This research is concerned with determining factors that are related to consumers' decisions to adopt or reject processed food products in developing nations. Data for this study were collected from open-ended questions administered to 162 Ivory Coast households. A cluster sampling method was used to select the respondents. Frozen beef imported from Argentina was chosen. Chi-square and logit analyses were applied. The results of the study show: 1) the trial decision is stimulated by word of mouth communication of experience, perceived nutritiousness, novelty, and price advantage of the new product. The most liekely triers are those consumers who attended secondary school. 2) the repeat trial purchase decision is motivatged by advantage perception of the product price, novelty, and taste. 3) the commitment decision is explained and predicted mainly by the price advantage of the product. Replication of this study on other food products and other countries was advised. Further investigation on the multiple choice that consumers face was suggested.Center for Research on Economic Development, University of Michiganhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/100823/1/ECON281.pd

EVALUATING WATER MANAGEMENT POLICY IN SAUDI ARABIA USING A BILEVEL, MULTI-OBJECTIVE, MULTI-FOLLOWER PROGRAMMING APPROACH

Over the past five decades, the Saudi government has adopted many agricultural policies aimed to: achieve self-sufficiency of food, increase the participation of the agricultural sector in the economy, and reduce the consumption of irrigation water. Due to conflicts among government objectives and the incompatibility of farmers\u27 objectives with those of some agricultural policies, the government has not been able to fully achieve its objectives. To accomplish its goals the government, or decision maker needs to understand the farmer, or follower, reaction when s/he adopts a new decision. The dissertation aims to build a model that achieves government goals of minimizing the total irrigation water used while improving the total revenue from agricultural production, while incorporating farmers’ objective of maximizing their profit. To do this, linear programming and bi-level multi-objective multi-follower models are developed and applied to six regions of Saudi Arabia, which account for around 70 percent of cropland and consume about 13.131 BCM of irrigation water per year. The result of the linear programming model applied to the Riyadh region shows there is an unobserved factor effect on the farmers’ decisions, including irrigation water demand that comes from the presence of indirect subsidies. On the other hand, the bi-level multi-objective, multi-follower model shows there is the possibility to minimize irrigation water consumption while maintaining current total revenue from crop production through reallocating irrigation water among regions, while applying a variety of crop specific tax and subsidy policies among the regions to alter planting decisions

Interaction with rule-bound systems : introducing a new 'ideal type' problem context

This PhD thesis introduces a new ideal-type problem context of rule-bound systems. The thesis has been generated through a belief in the ability of metaphor to make the abstract visible, its capacity to make the unfamiliar familiar, and its effectiveness as a legitimate means of generating insight and organizing knowledge. Metaphorical description remains an integral part of this thesis from beginning to end.It shows how the new context of rule-bound systems provides closure of the ideal problem context grid along the participants access. Following the ideas that created the basis for this closure, insight into a new role for systems practitioners is provided and the ideal problem context grid developed to form of a Torus.Part 1 outlines the theoretical foundations and other inspirations that underpin the thesis. Grounded on a wider definition of rules, including rules in both a formal and informal sense, multiple ways of viewing rules are highlighted. The characteristics of rule-bound systems are identified, drawing comparisons with other 'ideal-types'. Suggestions are also drawn out as to how change might be affected in a rule-bound context. Part II of this thesis is an account of a real world intervention informed by Critical Systems Thinking, carried out under the auspices of Participatory Action Research. A number of systems research methods and concepts were employed to investigate the participation of students in policy making in two contrasting senior schools in the North of England - organizations believed to present many of the characteristics of the rule-bound system. The approach used was one mixing methods, specifically, the creation of a symbiotic relationship between Soft Systems Methodology and Critical Systems Heuristics. Part III describes the process of reflection undertaken and the conclusion to the thesis