Permutation Complexity and Coupling Measures in Hidden Markov Models

In [Haruna, T. and Nakajima, K., 2011. Physica D 240, 1370-1377], the authors introduced the duality between values (words) and orderings (permutations) as a basis to discuss the relationship between information theoretic measures for finite-alphabet stationary stochastic processes and their permutation analogues. It has been used to give a simple proof of the equality between the entropy rate and the permutation entropy rate for any finite-alphabet stationary stochastic process and show some results on the excess entropy and the transfer entropy for finite-alphabet stationary ergodic Markov processes. In this paper, we extend our previous results to hidden Markov models and show the equalities between various information theoretic complexity and coupling measures and their permutation analogues. In particular, we show the following two results within the realm of hidden Markov models with ergodic internal processes: the two permutation analogues of the transfer entropy, the symbolic transfer entropy and the transfer entropy on rank vectors, are both equivalent to the transfer entropy if they are considered as the rates, and the directed information theory can be captured by the permutation entropy approach.Comment: 26 page

Exploring Causal Relationships in Visual Object Tracking

Causal relationships can often be found in visual object tracking between the motions of the camera and that of the tracked object. This object motion may be an effect of the camera motion, e.g. an unsteady handheld camera. But it may also be the cause, e.g. the cameraman framing the object. In this paper we explore these relationships, and provide statistical tools to detect and quantify them, these are based on transfer entropy and stem from information theory. The relationships are then exploited to make predictions about the object location. The approach is shown to be an excellent measure for describing such relationships. On the VOT2013 dataset the prediction accuracy is increased by 62 % over the best non-causal predictor. We show that the location predictions are robust to camera shake and sudden motion, which is invaluable for any tracking algorithm and demonstrate this by applying causal prediction to two state-of-the-art trackers. Both of them benefit, Struck gaining a 7 % accuracy and 22 % robustness increase on the VTB1.1 benchmark, becoming the new state-of-the-art

Mapping the epileptic brain with EEG dynamical connectivity: established methods and novel approaches

Several algorithms rooted in statistical physics, mathematics and machine learning are used to analyze neuroimaging data from patients suffering from epilepsy, with the main goals of localizing the brain region where the seizure originates from and of detecting upcoming seizure activity in order to trigger therapeutic neurostimulation devices. Some of these methods explore the dynamical connections between brain regions, exploiting the high temporal resolution of the electroencephalographic signals recorded at the scalp or directly from the cortical surface or in deeper brain areas. In this paper we describe this specific class of algorithms and their clinical application, by reviewing the state of the art and reporting their application on EEG data from an epileptic patient

Causal inference using the algorithmic Markov condition

Inferring the causal structure that links n observables is usually based upon detecting statistical dependences and choosing simple graphs that make the joint measure Markovian. Here we argue why causal inference is also possible when only single observations are present. We develop a theory how to generate causal graphs explaining similarities between single objects. To this end, we replace the notion of conditional stochastic independence in the causal Markov condition with the vanishing of conditional algorithmic mutual information and describe the corresponding causal inference rules. We explain why a consistent reformulation of causal inference in terms of algorithmic complexity implies a new inference principle that takes into account also the complexity of conditional probability densities, making it possible to select among Markov equivalent causal graphs. This insight provides a theoretical foundation of a heuristic principle proposed in earlier work. We also discuss how to replace Kolmogorov complexity with decidable complexity criteria. This can be seen as an algorithmic analog of replacing the empirically undecidable question of statistical independence with practical independence tests that are based on implicit or explicit assumptions on the underlying distribution.Comment: 16 figure